2022 Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Preview
The 5-1 Cowboys are coming off of an overtime loss in Fort Worth in a game where they led by as many as 17 points. Their offense depleted along with Spencer Sanders‘ health and the Horned Frogs reeled off a 14-0 4th quarter to beat them in overtime, 43-40. The Cowboys are a good team led by a very good coach, but they have uneven talent and some key injuries that can be exploited. The game will be determined by each team’s ability to protect their weaknesses and emphasize their strengths while maintaining composure when the game has its inevitable swings.
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OFFENSE
Passing Game
QB Spencer Sanders is the Cowboy offense. It all flows from his arm and feet and they have no real Plan B. The experienced dual threat has been consistently inconsistent in his 38 career starts, but had clearly turned a page in that regard before injuries degraded his performance over the last two weeks. Over the last two games, he’s been a sub 50% passer, largely due to a shoulder injury and a variety of lower body dings and dents. He looks good early in games, particularly at tempo, and is always a dangerous runner (he had 2 first half touchdown runs against the Frogs and has 8 touchdown runs on the season overall) but degrades considerably as the contest wears on and he begins to absorb contact. Getting hits on Sanders early and often is key to the Texas game plan. If OSU chooses to play a game plan that protects him, they don’t really have the personnel to execute that without the willing consent of the Texas defense.
His injury-related inaccuracy is compounded by the fact that he has always been an unorthodox passer with a long release. Sanders can struggle to throw accurately outside the hashes, particularly as hits accumulate. Combine that with his tendency to throw off his back foot when pressured and you’ve got a recipe for intrigue if the Longhorn defense attacks the ball in the air and Longhorn edges make him give ground rather than slide out of the pocket. The Horned Frogs shut down the Cowboy offense late largely by overplaying inside releases (the Cowboy outside receivers combined for only 3 catches for 38 yards on 12 targets) and daring Sanders to hit intermediate throws outside the hash. Sanders responded by turning the turf into a bounce house in the 4th quarter.
The OSU receiving corps is pretty good in aggregate. There is no true #1, but they have multiple guys who are average to good. Five different Cowboy pass catchers have between 16-30 catches and they spread it around. Slot Brennan Presley is their best chain mover and he will be a significant security blanket this Saturday. If Barron can shut him down, the Horns are in good shape. Jaden Bray is very talented and will be the guy there eventually, but he is still coming back from a hand injury. Braydon Johnson and Bryson Green have been the best outside threats and they’re strong, big-bodied guys. John Paul Richardson is their sure-handed The Defense Forgot Me 3rd down guy. They like to use RB Dominic Richardson in the passing game and he had 79 yards receiving against the Frogs. Unlike other Cowboy offenses of yore, they don’t have real threats at tight end or H-back and there isn’t a ton of diversity. Nor do they have their typical NFL caliber running back. This is a conventional tempo spread offense and everything flows from Sanders.
If Sanders can’t go or gets knocked out, the Cowboys will start inexperienced redshirt freshman Gunnar Gundy. It’s a scandalous open secret that the head coach is sleeping with Gunnar’s mom.
Running Game
Maybe the Cowboys should just rely on their running game and use Sanders in a controlled play action passing game? Gundy has done that to Texas before. As recently as 2021. And also in 2017. The problem is that they have little conventional running game. The only effective runs come when they involve Sanders either as the primary runner or as an option threat. The Cowboys start three poor to below average offensive linemen at center, right tackle, left guard (their starting center may return this week) and running back Dominic Richardson, though a tough and physical plugger, isn’t going to run his blocking better. He averages 4.0 yards per carry on the season (108-427-5 td). They also struggle to pass block if Sanders can’t get rid of it quickly or buy time with his legs. Interesting side note: Alfred Collins gave the walk on right tackle Springfield a very hard time last year playing on the edge. Having Collins and Ojomo alternate terrorizing him might pay big dividends and be just the sort of wrinkle that can turn a big game.
Texas can probably dust off quite a bit of the OU game plan for Dillon Gabriel that they never got to employ, though the Cowboys don’t have OU’s conventional run game. The rest remains the same. Contain the QB in the pocket, invite throws outside the hash, crush the conventional running game with the interior DL and Ford/Overshown, keep eyes on Sanders on 3rd down, don’t let Sanders escape the pocket for easy window throws, make the Cowboys pay for involving Sanders in the running game, get bodies on their worst OL. Of course, 3rd down defense and red zone defense will be key.
DEFENSE
The Cowboys were gutted in the back 7 by the NFL draft and graduation, but this unit returns some outstanding defensive linemen and Swiss Army knife stud safety Jason Taylor, he of last year’s Casey Thompson Pick 6 fame. Beyond those clear strengths, there are some target rich positions that the Cowboys hide by inflicting negative plays with their front and linebackers (they lead the Big 12 in tackles for loss). They also tend to make good coverage adjustments over time (the Texas Tech game is a solid example of Derek Mason winnowing down passing options over the course of the game). That’s evident in their 3rd down efficiency, as they’ve held opponents to <30% conversions on the year.
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The Cowboys have a dangerous front with good depth and multiple options. Tyler Lacy has evolved from a giant run-stopping defensive end to a later round NFL level talent and the 285 pounder leads the team with 8.5 tackles for loss. Edge Brock Martin is a high motor pass rusher who at his best against pocket quarterbacks. Nose tackle Sione Asi holds it down inside and Jake Majors will have his hands full with the penetrating run stopper. Edge Collin Oliver is their specialty pass rusher and the undersized speedster has 7 QB hits over his last four games. Trace Ford is yet another edge who gives them quality snaps off the bench. The Cowboys can come in waves up front.
The Cowboy linebackers are quick but inexperienced and Derek Mason likes to run blitz them and deploy them downhill to maximize havoc and exploit the opportunities his defensive front creates. The downside is that they can give up big runs when they guess wrong and it makes the Cowboys vulnerable to pass catching running backs and tight ends. This isn’t the game for Bijan to squat in the hole looking for a second or third cut. Plant and go.
Jason Taylor is a big hard-hitting safety (215+) who can both cover (leads them in pass break ups) and support the run (2nd on the team in tackles). All conference level player. Thomas Harper is the coverage safety and Texas wants to make him make tackles in the open field. The OSU corners are not without ability, but a step back from last year. If Texas can block OSU’s front, there’s plenty of yardage available in both the running and passing game.
Oklahoma State wants to inflict negative plays and put Texas behind the chains so they can run Derek Mason’s 3rd down defensive packages. On offense favorable down and distance, the Cowboys are vulnerable. A Texas offense starting three true freshmen at key positions and eight underclassmen overall playing in a tough road environment will have some shaky moments, but if the Horns can block ’em up and scheme it up, Cowboy key losses of LB Malcolm Rodriguez, LB Devin Harper and CB Christian Holmes to the NFL will be evident. Not to mention the loss of three other multi-year starters in the secondary (portal transfer Tanner McAllister starts for Ohio State now). Texas must avoid offensive penalties. The OSU defense behind the chains is very exploitable.
Special Teams
The Oklahoma State place kicker is 12/12 on the season and has hit from as far as 52 yards. The Horns probably don’t want this to come down to a kick. Of course, this being a Gundy coached team with a knack for exploiting rule sets, I have to share this gem:
Final
Expect a great game in Stillwater. Texas has some potentially terrific matchups on both sides of the ball and a few adjustments could yield big dividends for the Burnt Orange. A big opportunity for the program to step up for a crucial road win.
