2022 Texas vs. TCU Football Preview

TCU is 9-0 with a dominant, explosive offense that averages over 43 points and 500 yards per game at 7.4 yards per clip paired with an opportunistic defense that does enough to keep the Frogs on the winning end of the scoreboard. Throw in special teams buoyed by a roster brimming with skill position speed (Derius Davis has housed two punts this year) and it’s clear why they’re the #4 team in the country with a legitimate shot at making the College Football Playoff. 1st year Frog coach Sonny Dykes has done a terrific coaching job. The Horned Frogs are a second half team that plays its best football as they adjust to opponent schemes and they play hard every Saturday.

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So why should fans be optimistic about this matchup? 

First, let’s address the elephant in the room: Gary Patterson. I’m sure he wants revenge against the program that he built (and then presided over its late decline) but beyond the media storylines, what can he offer in terms of game day advantage? He knows TCU’s personnel cold. The warts that film may not reveal. That can be a little dangerous if you don’t allow for player improvement or a new system helping their deficiencies, but knowing who the mental midgets are in the secondary are or which offensive lineman is susceptible to a bull rush is helpful. As for scheme input? Hard to say. This kind of offense is part of the reason why he’s currently at Texas. In some respects, Pete Kwiatkowski may have the better dispositional approach against the Toads. But Patterson’s input won’t just be limited to the Longhorn defense.

Defense

The Frogs are mediocre defensively, ranked #34 in the country by FEI and perhaps a rung or two below that subjectively. They are very physical and have knocked out several opponent starting quarterbacks, which is a pretty efficient means of limiting an opponent’s offense, but QB Power won’t be particularly prominent in the Horn playbook this week. 

DL

This is a group that Texas can beat at the point of attack. They feature a 3 man front and all three defensive linemen are between 275-320. They’re physically stronger than Kansas State’s front, but lack their mobility and quickness. They’re there to clog up lanes, eat blocks, and free TCU’s second level defenders to make tackles. Senior Dylan Horton is the best pass rusher and the most disruptive of the group. He’s their only down lineman capable of generating honest pressure. They start a true freshman at nose tackle: 6-2, 320 pound Damonic Williams. Williams is a talented kid with a bright future but Texas needs to punish his inexperience. Experienced starter Terrell Cooper completes the trio. The Frogs rotate players, but there is a real drop off the second group.

LB

The Frogs have physical linebackers and they use them to generate a pass rush, but they’re not particularly instinctive off-the-ball second level defenders save Johnny Hodges. Explosive Dee Winters will miss the first half of the game for targeting against Tech and he is their best 3rd down pass rusher, notching 6.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. He can do it as a blitzer or coming off of the edge. Jamoi Hodge is a big dude who hits hard, but he’s more comfortable attacking downhill than reading. They blitz him constantly through interior gaps, hunting for disruptive plays and he’s 2nd on the team in sacks with 3.5. Johnny Hodges, a Navy transfer, completes the trio and he’s their leading tackler.

DB

Dynamic cornerback Tre’vius Hodges-Tomlinson has both apostrophe and hyphen swagger and completes his eleventh year of eligibility at TCU. The lockdown corner is undersized but crazy quick. Josh Newton – a ULM transfer- has played pretty well, but he’s someone Texas can target. The safety trio has a lot of experience and the Frogs rotate several players there. The secondary isn’t remarkable, but they will take risks and TCU will throw a lot of looks at Ewers.

Strategy: TCU will try to confuse Quinn Ewers and get the Longhorn running game behind the chains by guessing right with a run blitz or penetration. Texas has to get bodies on bodies and let Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson do work. That should pop some big runs. The more important question is: can they complement those with steady runs and a play action passing game that keeps the chains fresh? Quinn Ewers is going to have open receivers. The Horns just need to block it up and make smart play calls since Ewers lacks the experience to change plays at the line. The name of the game for the Texas offense is valuing the ball and no stupid penalties. The points will come.

Offense

QB

Max Duggan has been fantastic for TCU this year, occasionally struggling for a quarter or two, but then invariably hitting huge plays downfield and then taking off to grab chunk runs. He looks like a different QB from years previous and his 24 TD to 2 INT ratio speaks to his efficiency. He’s averaging just under 10 yards per passing attempt and his 15 yards per completion average demonstrates to his willingness to push the ball down the field. He’s a good runner (he had a 67 yard touchdown run against OU) and 4 rushing touchdowns and TCU isn’t shy about letting him run. If Duggan has any bad habits, it’s a desire to extend plays that will lead to sacks. He’s not turning it over though. Right now, he’s your Big 12 MVP and the most efficient QB in the league. Nope, I didn’t see that coming either.

RB

TCU’s running game is extremely underrated and Dykes has shown great patience attacking light fronts. There’s a perception that TCU is just a wild throw-it-around spread team, but they’re averaging 219 yards rushing per game with the 2nd highest per carry average in the league. That’s how TCU has the most explosive offense in the conference while also maintaining a time of possession advantage over their opponents. 220 pound Kendre Miller is RB1 and he’s already a thousand yard rusher at 6.6 yards per clip. Over his last four Big 12 games, Miller is averaging 133.8 yards per contest. He has power (he’s put on about 15 pounds of good weight), but also has a real knack for popping long runs. In my mind, he’s the third best back in the league. TCU rotates in Emari Demercado to keep Miller fresh and he’s compiled 342 yards on the season at 5.6 per carry.

WR/TE

The Frogs have the best receiving corps in the league. Quentin Johnston is the bell cow and a future first round draft pick, but the former Longhorn commitment is struggling with an ankle sprain. I wish him good health…next week. If Johnston is healthy, Texas doesn’t really have anyone who can match up with his size, speed, agility and catch radius. He’ll get his. Make him work for it. His supporting cast is a fine combination of experience and speed. Slot Derius Davis may be the fastest guy on the field and he leads the Frogs in receiving touchdowns. Experienced Taye Barber has been at TCU forever and he’s tormented Texas a few times in the past. The group is rounded out by big Savion Williams (6-5) who excels at contested catches and jump balls.

In all, a really good group with a strong mix of experience, body types and playmaking. They distribute the ball around and while QJ is the lead dog, they can all bite.

OL

These guys shouldn’t be playing as well as they are, but multi year starter and former SMU center transfer Alan Ali has been a huge stabilizing force for them. TCU runs blocks quite well against light or honest boxes, but I’m skeptical that they can handle the Longhorn front in the running game. Monstrous Brandon Coleman is a very good run blocking tackle. The Frog offensive line actually isn’t a high level pass blocking unit (despite what their metrics tell you), but Duggan’s mobility, TCU’s tenacity running the ball to force honest play and Dykes system make defenses terrified to pressure them and they just flat wear people out. Texas Tech had a lot of success pass rushing Duggan early in their game, but TCU eventually murdered them running the ball when they got out of their gaps.

Strategy: Texas has generally shown a knack for limiting the big plays that TCU feasts on and the Longhorn DL is a potentially big asset if PK wants to stop the Frog running game with minimal numbers while loading up coverage. Texas will have to be judicious about keeping bodies fresh, but if the Horns play the schemes I think they will, there will be a lot of pressure on Jamison, Watts, Barron to make plays in space on a Frog receiving corps that aggressively claims 50/50 balls to the tune of 70/30.

Final

This is huge game and a possible turning point for this program. If you’re able to attend in person, get there early and let the Frogs feel what 105,000 motivated fans sound like for all four quarters.