2023 Houston Cougars Football Preview
If you want a complement to this preview, give a listen to the Everyone Gets A Trophy Podcast episode Slaying Urban Cougars. Then subscribe going forward.
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Houston is 3-3 on the year against a fairly forgiving schedule. Their best season win was last week at home against West Virginia on an improbable Hail Mary, their worst loss was to cross town rival Rice in overtime in Week 2. Sagarin has them ranked as the 71st ranked team in college football (dead last in the Big 12) and Sharp College Football has them 97th, but those ratings encompass a season’s body of work. Houston has improved offensively since their opening weeks and they’re not clearly below teams like BYU, Baylor or Cincinnati currently, at least by my eye test.
Dana Holgorsen leads a school that has long been a Kingmaker program for better jobs (Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, Tom Herman) but the current tension in H-town isn’t whether Holgo will leave Houston for a better gig, but whether Houston will leave him on an humid overpass with a pink slip. Holgo is 30-23 in his fifth year there, but that includes a 12-2 2021 campaign that sits on a throne of lies. That year, Houston’s season opponents were a combined 67-98 and featured one ranked opponent (a Cougar loss). Their marquee win was a bowl victory over a disinterested 6-6 Auburn and they beat 7 teams with 4 or fewer wins – those teams finished with a combined 20-63 record. They finished ranked 17th in the country in the AP Poll, but were probably in the 40s or 50s in overall quality. Holgo has gotten a lot of mileage out of that year, but the gas tank is on empty if he doesn’t at least deliver a bowl game this year.
Houston Defense
They’re surrendering 31 points per game and opponents are converting 51% of their money downs against them. They’re also surrendering 6.2 yards per play, which isn’t good, but when you control for opponent offensive strength – and the slate of offenses that Houston has faced are weak – their efficiency metrics are even worse. At the bottom of college football. The only area where they excel is turnover generation, totaling 10 forced turnovers in six games.
Houston starts four defenders of interest. The other seven starters range from subpar to average. Depth is not great either.
Edge Nelson Ceasar (6-3, 250) leads the Cougs in sacks (4.5), pressures and hits on the QB. He’s a quality pass rusher and he’s consistently good against the run. High level play in the front six ends there. The Cougar linebackers are poor against the run and will often drift out of their assignments. The interior defensive line is unremarkable.
The best playmakers are found in the secondary. New Mexico transfer AJ Haulcy is a big hitter and terrific in run support. A classic big box safety that the Cougars love to fire him downhill. His downside? He can’t cover receivers in space and Texas needs to pick on him if they can get him matched up. He’s paired with undersized Malik Fleming – a 5-8, 178 nickel – who was an all-conference standout at East Carolina before coming to Houston. He has 3 interceptions on the year, a number matched by lean 175 pound cornerback Isaiah Hamilton from Texas Southern. Fleming and Hamilton are ball hawks who will risk a big play to attack the ball and they both have excellent reactive quickness. They trigger and go. Not a lot of internal debate.
Houston’s defense can be pushed around and ball controlled if an offense can handle their quickness. They can also be big-played when they overplay the run. Don’t hurt yourself with dumb missed assignments, penalties and turnovers and touchdowns will happen.
Houston Offense
The Cougars average 410 yards from scrimmage per game at 5.8 yards per play and are scoring at a 29 points per game clip. The offense has improved over the course of the season, but opponent defensive strength has been questionable.
Holgo’s tutelage has been good for Tech transfer QB Donovan Smith, who has cut down on his turnovers (13-3 TD INT ratio) and is a significant red zone and short yardage run threat, averaging over 10 carries per game with 4 touchdowns. Tech will repeatedly spam QB power and QB lead draw in the red zone and on 3rd and short. He’s a legitimate 6-5, 240 and a decent athlete overall. Smith is most accurate on short balls and intermediate routes. Attacking his preferred throwing spots is recommended as he is not a well-rounded passer or a sophisticated read-the-D guy.
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The best player on the Cougar OL is LT Patrick Paul. He’s 6-7, 315 and an obvious NFL draft pick. Great base and his length guarantees that any edge who can’t break down his arms is getting big-brothered. Keep your eyes on #76 for a pass blocking clinic. The rest of the unit isn’t as stout, particularly RT Ruben Unije. He’s a walking holding penalty. Center Jack Freeman is pretty good, but the flanking guards are JAGs though their pass protection has improved markedly over the last few contests. Early in the year, the unit was sieve, but they’ve tightened up considerably (12 sacks surrendered in their first 3 games, only 3 sacks surrendered over their last 3 games). Average run blocking unit.
The wide receiver corps is the strength of the offense. West Virginia transfer Sam Brown leads them in receptions and yardage (37-549-14.8 per catch) and he’s been great in the intermediate game. Matthew Golden is probably their most gifted player, but he has been hobbled with various nicks and scratches. Golden can be a real handful in the screen game. Stephon Johnson and Joseph Manjack round out the highly capable group. They only play a tight end on half of their downs and he’s a JAG.
Running back has been a three man rotation and they’re FBS running backs.
Special Teams
High variance unit. Golden has brought back two kickoff returns for touchdowns (he’s averaging over 50 yards per return!) and Fleming is a dynamic little punt returner, but Houston has also given up a punt block touchdown and a kick return touchdown of their own against Texas Tech.
Placekicker Jack Martin is a shaky 4 of 8 on the season and 2 of 6 from 40+. If Texas isn’t prepared for Houston to go hurry up no huddle on 4th down on the Longhorn 27 yard line on a 4th and 5 after a 3rd down stop, that’s a coaching failure.
U of H special teams are dangerous to the opponent and to themselves.
Final
The path to defeat Houston’s defense is obvious. Solid play-calling, execution and finishing drives. The Texas offense should make a point of attacking on money downs. Four down territory starts at the 50. They need to be prepared for Houston to attack the center and overall unit coordination.
Defensively, Houston uses Holgo’s scheming and good receivers to put the ball in space and erase their trench and conventional run game disadvantages. Texas will benefit from attacking Smith in the pocket FROM THE INTERIOR and attacking routes early. Pete Kwiatkowki put some bad ideas on film against Oklahoma’s spread and he needs to demonstrate some reflection on Saturday, particularly around robbing his D of aggression.
