2023 Top 25 Preseason Pretenders

Every year, the AP and Coach’s Polls come out to considerable fanfare. Are they good predictors of how a season will unfold?

Let’s look at the accuracy of the Coach’s Poll last year…

The 2022 Preseason Coach’s Poll:

1. Alabama – Finished 5th
2. Ohio State – Playoff team
3. Georgia – National Champion
4. Clemson – Finished ranked 12th, 11-3 team
5. Notre Dame – Finished 18th, regular season losses to Marshall, Stanford
6. Michigan- Playoff team
7. Texas A&M – Unranked. 5-7 team. 2-6 SEC play. Lost to Appalachian State at home
8. Utah – PAC 12 champs, about right
9. Oklahoma – Unranked. 6-7 record. Lost by 7 touchdowns to main rival
10. Baylor – Unranked. 6-7 record. Lost last 4 games of season
11. Oklahoma State – Unranked. 7-6 record. 4-5 conference. 1-5 season finish
12. Oregon- About right
13. NC State – Unranked. 8-5 team
14. Michigan State – Unranked. 5-7 football team. 3-6 in conference
15. USC – About right
16. Pittsburgh – Finished 22nd
17. Miami – 5-7 team. Unranked
18. Texas – Finished 25th, lost 5 games by 25 total points
19. Wake Forest – Unranked. 8-5 team
20. Wisconsin – Unranked. 7-6 team. 4-5 in weak B10 West
21. Kentucky – Unranked. 7-6 team. 3-5 in SEC East
22. Cincinnati – Unranked. 9-4 team
23. Arkansas – Unranked. 7-6 team
24. Ole Miss – Unranked. 8-5 team. Lost 5 of last 6.
25. Houston – Unranked. 8-5 team against poor schedule

**

Whew. That’s tough. An incredible 14 teams in the 2022 preseason Coach’s Top 25 finished unranked. So the preseason poll identified top 25 teams with only 44% accuracy. That has to be one of the lowest hit rates in poll history. I’m sympathetic though. Accurate season prediction is one of the hardest parts of any preview.

It wasn’t just at the bottom of the poll either. Six teams in the preseason Top 14 finished unranked. The worst miss was Texas A&M (preseason #7, finished 5-7 with a loss to Appalachian State).

The poll was particularly poor at ranking Big 12 teams. Preseason Top 11 teams OU, Baylor and Oklahoma State all finished unranked while unranked TCU played for the national championship and Kansas State won the Big 12. Only Texas marginally met expectations – not exactly the national talking point, but that’s what happened. This is unsurprising given that it’s hard for outsiders to model accurately for B12 developmental cycles. They just assume the good team from last year will be good again, irrespective of draft losses.

The prognosticators were also poor at predicting the ACC. 3 of the 5 preseason Top 25 finished outside of the poll and Clemson was over ranked by 8 spots. In fact, Clemson was probably over ranked in the final poll as well. It helps to win recent national titles.

Missing from the poll entirely? #2 TCU, #6 Tennessee, #8 Washington, #9 Tulane, #10 Florida State, #14 Kansas State, #15 LSU, #17 Oregon State to name just a few.

Yeah, the TCU breakout was shocking, but note that “big names” like Tennessee, LSU and Florida State were 2022 preseason omissions due to recent disappointments. We should never be surprised when a name program recovers and rebounds under new management and decent coaching. It’s just hard to nail the year that it happens. You catching that, Texas fans?

So what about this year?

2023 Preseason Coach’s Poll

(I bolded some of the teams I have major questions about)

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. LSU
6. USC
7. Penn State
8. Florida State
9. Clemson
10. Tennessee
11. Washington
12. Texas
13. Notre Dame
14. Utah
15. Oregon
16. TCU
17. Kansas State
18. Oregon State
19. Oklahoma
20. North Carolina
21. Wisconsin
22. Ole Miss
23. Tulane
24. Texas Tech
25. Texas A&M

**

Alabama isn’t pulling an A&M from last year. They have too many good players, irrespective of QB uncertainty. But I won’t be shocked if they underperformed their ranking by 5-7 spots.

Tennessee concerns me due to losing several elite offensive players, Joe Milton’s inconsistency and a defense that should take a step back. There are some TCU parallels here. Their season will be defined by their games against Texas A&M, Bama, Georgia and they can’t stumble against a Kentucky or Mizzou.

Utah has been running a disinformation campaign on Cam Rising. If he’s not available early or plays hobbled, removing his legs and play action ability lowers them in a competitive PAC. One of the PAC headliners is going to disappoint. I think it’s Utah. There’s a decent argument for Oregon as well.

TCU will probably start 6-0. How they finish is another matter entirely.

Oklahoma has such an easy schedule that this ranking isn’t hard to imagine. But pollsters should be discerning enough to rank them based upon their results against real opponents. Which they won’t. So maybe this is right.

North Carolina doesn’t play defense and the new offensive coordinator hire is a probable misfire. Nearly every game on the schedule will be competitive, even with Drake Maye at QB. Their #1 WR is also currently ineligible. The danger of fading the Tarheels is that Maye can singlehandedly will them to victories.

Tulane won me a lot of money last year before people realized they were actually good. RB Tyjae Spears and multiple key defenders will be missed and their SOS will be awful, so even a couple of losses should be held against them.

I didn’t include Texas A&M as their starting talent level will be high but implosion potential remains. Will they play every week? Will Jimbo’s death grip on the play laminate loosen? Watching Fisher and Petrino cuss each other out on the headsets should be amusing and from top to bottom, this is arguably the least likable coaching staff in the nation. Plenty of talent in College Station though.

**

Who could surprise?

UCLA isn’t ranked. If they hit at QB, that will change quickly. Chip has recruited his guys to his system and is flying far under the radar. Watch UCLA.

Kansas is a fun dark horse possibility if they stay healthy and outscore everyone. Watch their non-con against Illinois for a season bellwether.

UTSA has Frank Harris and Jeff Traylor. Enough said.

The winner of UCF/Boise State in September may shake some stuff up.

Miami has talent. What happens if they coach it?

If NC State has their QB in Virginia transfer Brennan Armstrong, Tony Gibson will provide the defense. The ACC will provide the automatic wins from the bottom half of the league.