2025 SEC Breakout Candidate: The Auburn Tigers

Auburn is one of the rare schools in college football that has a better football brand and perception than actual performance.

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Credit a passionate fanbase that sells out an 88,000 person capacity stadium in rural Alabama every football Saturday, lots of SEC television time, their historical role as Alabama’s foil, producing all-time CFB icons like Bo Jackson and Cam Newton, and some rather memorable programs highs on the big stage.

This is also a program that, other than Bama fans, lacks many true haters. They’re not exactly Texas, Notre Dame, or Ohio State.

That’s heartening to Auburn faithful, but it’s actually proof of not winning enough.

We also tend to forget the programs lows. There have been quite a few.

Since winning a national championship in 2010, Auburn is on their 4th coach in 14 years and boast a 53-61 record in SEC play over that time span.

They’re 4-12 against hated rival Alabama over their last 16 games and over the last four years, they’ve had 7 season losses every year.

Nor were they a model of consistency before 2010.

Between 1990-2009, they won double digit games only four times. In my lifetime, the story of Auburn football is that they spring up, kick ass, make headlines, and then promptly disappear for a few years, often with some accompanying scandal.

Beyond the objective record, their subjective level of play is maddening. Last year, they were 1-5 in games decided by 10 points or less. Costly late turnovers, dumb penalties, poor coaching decisions and low collective football IQ cost them close losses against several good or above average teams.

This has been a feature of their play for some time and the madness has to stop.

Sometimes they don’t show up against their inferiors. Getting worked over by Diego Pavia and the New Mexico State Aggies in their own building in 2023 is only slightly more dispiriting than getting worked over by Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville in 2024.

So why might a somewhat predictable underachiever breakout this year after so many other failed breakout attempts hyped in other preseasons?

Talent and opportunity.

And every season begins anew.

Under Hugh Freeze they’ve recruited at a high level, retained and acquired more portal talent with broad NIL support from their loyal fanbase, seem to have cleaned up their obligatory scandals to normal SEC levels, and boast elite young talent that should be coming into its own at several spots.

These are their national On3 recruiting rankings over their last four years:

2025 – 8th

2024 – 8th

2023 – 17th

2022 – 16th

That’s a pretty damn good trajectory given their poor on-field results. They’re peddling hope and it has to materialize on Saturdays.

More crucially, that talent has largely remained on campus. Is it being developed?

Hard to say. But if they are, this is the season that it should show up.

It all rests on Jackson Arnold.

Not exactly a sentence that inspires confidence in the knowledgeable college football fan, but if the Oklahoma transfer QB can play at least capably in a QB-friendly system surrounded by upgraded talent and avoid the numerous boneheaded mistakes of his predecessor(s), the Tigers are well positioned to make a move.

Arnold didn’t play well at Oklahoma, but he was poorly coached there and he had less surrounding talent than what he’ll boast inside Jordan-Hare.

Behind Arnold is Stanford transfer QB Ashton Daniels, who inspires even less confidence if you’ve ever watched Cardinal football and his glacial wind up before each throw.

Still, they will boast one of the nation’s top WR rooms, including coveted former Georgia Tech speedster Eric Singleton, who will join standout youngster Cam Coleman (37-598-8tds as a true freshman), solid Malcolm Simmons, and Horatio Fields (starting transfer from Wake Forest). They even boast a potential standout true freshman in Sam Turner.

They also addressed glaring weaknesses at tackle with the portal (incoming starters from USC and Virginia Tech), which should complement an above average interior OL. A historical deficiency, at least of late, this could be their best group up front in years.

So why can the the former five star Arnold thrive in the Tiger offense?

Hugh Freeze is a solid offensive tactician who keeps reads simple and when he has speed outside, the offense tends to open up nicely for the QB’s legs and in the running game. It encourages simple decision-making from the QB, while still managing to keep the defense in conflict.

Freeze is also conversant with an Auburn tradition from the Gus Malzahn days – a big time game plan for a big-time visiting opponent. Georgia is this year’s circled opponent and rest assured that they’ll devote plenty of non-con opponent weeks (other than Baylor) to the Bulldogs.

They lose underrated RB Jarquez Hunter, but historically, Auburn doesn’t struggle to replenish it’s RB room.

Defensively, last year’s #34 ranked defense in the country has room for improvement. Largely, their penchant for giving up big plays at inopportune moments after playing 3 or more quarters of largely good ball.

6-6, 285 pound Keldric Faulk will be key. Faulk was one of the SEC’s best defenders last year and should be a NFL rounder in 2026. Fellow defensive lineman Malik Blocton was a Freshman All-American. Their DL consistently looked good on the hoof and they return a two deep of high level athletes, including a talent infusion of freshman and sophomores that will only expand their rotations.

The secondary has to stop busting at key moments and they’ll arrest that tendency with a mix of veterans and the introduction of more instinctive players from their most recent talent recruiting classes and the portal.

Cornerback Jay Crawford was a standout as a freshman starter last year and Champ Anthony is a more than capable nickel returning from injury.

They need to clean up their safety play overall.

We should know early.

Auburn opens at Baylor and we’ll see how they acquit themselves against QB Sawyer Robertson in an opening road environment where the Tigers have too often wilted.

The meat of their season is @ Oklahoma, @ Texas A&M and hosting Georgia, all in rapid succession beginning in late September. If they can go 2-2 or better against those three teams and Baylor, the back half of the season sets up beautifully (Arkansas, Kentucky, Vandy) until they host Alabama in the Iron Bowl.

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After a five year succession of 5 or 6 win seasons, a 9-3 record and SEC contention is very much in the fore if they can make reasonable improvements across the board, buoyed by a potentially elite WR room and a very athletic defensive front four.