38 days until Texas Football: The Longhorns and Expected Points Added
Inside Texas is putting a new twist on long-time photographer Will Gallagher’s time-honored countdown to Texas football kickoff. In addition to Will’s great pictures, the Inside Texas staff will go through every player on the roster by jersey number and offer a season outlook on each, from five-star to walk-on.
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We’ll also look back at other greats to wear that day’s number, with special reverence to some of Texas’ best.
Today is 38 days until kickoff. No. 38 for the Longhorns this season will be worn by Graham Gillespie, a sophomore walk-on defensive back, and Remy Patson, a sophomore walk-on wide receiver. We’ll also look at the Longhorns’ 2022 standing in Expected Points Added, or EPA.
Why EPA is worth knowing
There are a number of advanced statistics that have permeated throughout the college football consciousness in recent years. These stats try to paint a more accurate picture of what’s happening on the field than ones that count pure volume like total offense or even averages like scoring defense.
One telling stat is Expected Points Added, or EPA.
CFB-Graphs.com offers this definition of EPA.
EPA translates yards to points in context. A 3-yard gain on 1st and 10 is bad; a 3 yard gain on 3rd and 2 is good. How can we compare? EPA takes into account the down, distance, yard line, and game state of each play to calculate the added point value of every play. EPA is an explosiveness weighted measure of success: how often did you provide positive value, and on average, how much positive value did you add? It is analogous, roughly, to wOBA in baseball. A higher EPA on offense is good, and a lower EPA on defense is good.
CFB-graphs.com
Even more nuts and bolts of the measure using regular season FBS versus FBS games and conference championships as data can be found here.
So why highlight EPA with 38 days until kickoff? Texas was No. 38 in EPA Margin last year with a mark of 2.19, good for fourth in the Big 12 in 2022 behind No. 13 TCU, No. 28 Kansas State, and No. 34 Kansas.
Texas’ EPA Margin on a per game basis was 2.19. For comparison, TCU’s was 5.38, K-State’s was 3.59, and Kansas’ was 2.61. No. 1 Michigan had an EPA Margin of 11.16. New Mexico was last in the FBS at -10.08.
The Horns’ EPA Margin for offense on a per game basis was 3.27, which checked in at No. 36 in the nation. On defense? It was -0.87, good for No. 56 (the EPA Margin of 2.19 comes to be because the stat is weighted toward offense).
Here’s a closer look at what goes into EPA Margin. Blue is good, the darker the better. Red is bad, and darker equals worse.
Texas was a darling for certain advanced statistical measures last year. ESPN’s FPI ranked the Horns No. 7 in its final version, as did Bill Connelly’s SP+. Football Outsiders’ FEI went so far as to rank the Longhorns No. 6.
The Longhorns’ ranking in EPA Margin, and other EPA categories, place them among a variety of teams. Nos. 35-45 in EPA Margin were
- 35. Ole Miss (8-4) – 2.59
- 36. Toledo (7-5) – 2.26
- 37. Tulane (10-2) – 2.25
- 38. Texas (8-4) – 2.19
- 39. Army (5-6) – 2.16
- 40. Wisconsin (6-6) – 2.16
- 41. Ohio (9-3) – 2.14
- 42. Notre Dame (8-4) – 2.11
- 43. UCF (9-3) – 1.94
- 44. Appalachian State (6-6) – 1.56
- 45. Troy (10-2) – 1.53
There’s some variance in who the Longhorns are grouped with, but that’s a wildly different group than the one the Horns are among as part of the top 10 of the final 2022 FPI: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, Penn State, Texas, Utah, Clemson, and LSU.
There’s only one five-loss team in that group: Texas.
Attention on college football has lead to a number of new statistics in recent years that have changed the way experts and tuned-in fans pay attention to games.
EPA Margin is worth monitoring, and one the Longhorns hope they can improve upon in the coming season.
Remy Patson and Graham Gillespie season outlook
Neither Patson nor Gillespie saw any game action during the 2022 season. They both are valuable members of the scout team.
Recent player to wear No. 38: Roddrick Muckelroy
Muckelroy played in 41 career games, making 30 starts, in his five years on the 40 Acres. He was a two-time All-Big 12 selection and posted 291 tackles (177 solo), 5.5 sacks, 24 TFL, 15 pressures, two INTs, nine PBU, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries, including a 26-yard TD return, during his career.
Muckelroy registered 11 10-tackle games during his career and was a member of Texas Athletics Director’s Honor Roll (Fall 2006). He drafted with the 32nd pick in the fourth round (131st overall) by Cincinnati in the 2010 NFL Draft.
All-Americans to wear No. 38
Glen Gaspard, LB, 1972
Steve Habel co-authored this article
