A look at the College Football Playoff landscape ahead of the penultimate rankings release

Only four teams can make the College Football Playoff, but entering conference championship weekend eight teams with one or fewer losses are contending to hear their name called by the CFP selection committee as a top-four team this Sunday.

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Not only are more teams in contention at this stage of the season than in any other year of the CFP era, but there are many different outcomes possible this weekend with all every Power 5 conference championship game factoring into the equation.

Ahead of the penultimate CFP rankings reveal scheduled for tonight at 6 p.m., here’s a look at the current top eight, the conference championship matchups, and projected outcomes depending on results.

Week 12 CFP top eight

1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-0, 8-0 SEC)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1, 8-1 Big 10)
3. Michigan Wolverines (12-0, 9-0 Big 10)
4. Washington Huskies (12-0, 9-0 Pac-12)
5. Florida State Seminoles (12-0, 8-0 ACC)
6. Oregon Ducks (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12)
7. Texas Longhorns (11-1, 8-1 Big 12)
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, 8-0 SEC)

Since the last release, the Buckeyes fell to the Wolverines. Ohio State dropped to No. 6 in the AP poll on Sunday, one spot ahead of the No. 7 Longhorns.

Ohio State is unique among all these teams, whether undefeated or with one-loss, in that it doesn’t have a 13th data point. There is a path for them to reach the top four, but it’ll be difficult for that camel to pass through the eye of a needle.

Now, for the conference title games.

Pac-12 Championship

Who: Washington vs. Oregon

When: Friday, December 1

Time/TV: 7 p.m., ABC

This one is simple: win and in. Washington can either enter with an undefeated record, a prolific offense, and two wins over fellow CFP contender Oregon, or the Ducks can head to the Playoff for the first time since 2014 after avenging their only loss of the regular season. The Pac-12 has been phenomenal in its final season, and the conference title game should deliver.

Big 12 Championship

Who: Texas vs. Oklahoma State

When: Saturday, December 2

Time/TV: 11 a.m., ABC

Texas can win its fourth Big 12 title during its final season as members of the league, and get revenge for a 2022 loss to Oklahoma State in the process. The only blemish on the Longhorns’ ledger will be a four-point loss to Oklahoma in the final minutes, but Steve Sarkisian‘s team will have a 10-point win over Alabama at the top of the resume it presents to the selection committee. Not to be overlooked, the Longhorns also topped two bowl-eligible Group of Five teams in Rice and Wyoming during non-conference play.

That OU loss could sting during the committee’s deliberations, but a second loss to the Cowboys would be the death knell for the Longhorns’ (and the Big 12’s) Playoff efforts.

SEC Championship

Who: Alabama vs. Georgia

When: Saturday, December 2

Time/TV: 3:00 p.m., CBS

After falling to the Longhorns during Week 2, the Crimson Tide found an identity around its defense and quarterback Jalen Milroe. Nick Saban‘s club went undefeated in conference play, including wins against Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU.

The Bulldogs didn’t skip a beat over the course of the 2023 season, with Carson Beck leading a strong offense to yet another undefeated regular season under Kirby Smart. A win by Georgia makes the process simple. Another Crimson Tide SEC Championship muddies the waters.

ACC Championship

Who: Louisville vs. Florida State

When: Saturday, December 2

Time/TV: 7:00 p.m., ABC

Louisville’s loss to Kentucky eliminated it from Playoff contention, but the Cardinals and Jeff Brohm can affect the picture with a win over the Seminoles. By nature of their undefeated season in a power conference, FSU will be a top-four team should they win on Saturday in Charlotte. If not? The lack of a conference championship plus the Seminoles’ best win being the season-opening victory over LSU (without credit coming for a win over a ranked Duke that finished 7-5) likely keep the one-loss Noles out of the picture.

Big 10 Championship

Who: Michigan vs. Iowa

When: Saturday, December 2

Time/TV: 7:00 p.m., FOX

Another win and in scenario. If the Wolverines can overcome an elite Hawkeye defense and a moribund Iowa offense, Michigan (and Jim Harbaugh) are guaranteed at least the No. 2 spot.

If not? Michigan still could be a Playoff team, and may be the only team who could survive a defeat this weekend.

Scenarios, resumes, and more

A few other odds:
– If Michigan loses, odds to make playoffs: 74%
– If Alabama wins, odds to be left out: 58%
– If Texas wins, odds to be left out: 46%
– If UGA loses, odds to make playoffs: 14%
– If FSU loses, odds to make playoffs: 0.4%

— Ryan Sterritt 🦚 (@RyanSSterritt) November 27, 2023

What you’ll notice in Sterritt’s graph that was astutely pointed out by IT member tmdare is that no projection exists that has Alabama leapfrogging Texas should both teams win. This is a projection using Bill Connelly’s SP+, an advanced analytical rating, but there’s also the basic fact that the Longhorns beat the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa.

Could the SEC be left out in favor of a future SEC team? The weekend’s games will determine that.

Entering championship weekend, here are each contenders best wins using SP+ solely as a reference. Of note, there are some five-loss teams among this list like USC, Miami, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin, which should also be factored in.

Georgia: 12. Missouri, 14. Ole Miss, 19. Tennessee

Ohio State: 5. Penn State, 9. Notre Dame, 27. Wisconsin; Loss: 1. Michigan

Michigan: 3. Ohio State, 5. Penn State, 34. Maryland

Washington: 4. Oregon, 17. Oregon State, 21. Arizona

Florida State: 10. LSU, 22. Miami, 24. Clemson

Oregon: 17. Oregon State, 36. Utah, 38. USC; Loss: 11. Washington

Texas: 8. Alabama, 16. Kansas State, 33. Kansas; Loss: 13. Oklahoma

Alabama: 10. LSU, 14. Ole Miss, 15. Texas A&M; Loss: 8. Texas

A team having a lofty SP+ rating and ranking doesn’t mean they are an elite team. 9-3 LSU is a spot ahead of 12-0 Washington thanks to the Huskies having a bit more balance in the score-blind metric.

And each team’s opponent this weekend according to SP+?

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SEC: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama

Big 12: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 41 Oklahoma State

Big 10: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 31 Iowa

ACC: No. 6 Florida State vs. No. 23. Louisville

Pac-12: No. 4 Oregon vs. No. 11 Washington

The committee has a lot of work to do ahead of tonight’s rankings. It could have a lot more work to do and results to think about after Saturday’s games.