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A round two loss? ESPN’s College Football Playoff projection varies wildly from On3’s

by:James Hayden•about 9 hours
College Football Playoff CFP Trophy
© Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

When the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff became a reality in 2024, the Texas Longhorns under Steve Sarkisian were in the mix right down to the very end, losing in gut-wrenching fashion to Ohio State in the semifinals. But let’s not dwell on the past and instead look to the future like we will do all off-season.

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Thankfully, ESPN did some work for us in the manner of a 2026 College Football Playoff prediction, and naturally they have Texas right in the thick of it. In this projection, the Longhorns are picked to be a No. 6 seed and are slated to play Bill Belichick and the North Carolina Tar Heels. It would mean another season without a conference title, and it would be another ACC team at home for the Horns. ESPN’s prediction is that Texas will manage this one in a fashion similar to how they handled Clemson.

After that game, ESPN has Texas facing off with Utah in the Cam Rising Bowl, however Rising will not be playing quarterback for the Utes and it will either be Isaac Wilson or Devon Dampier, a New Mexico transfer.

As much of an unknown as the Utah quarterback situation will be, and with Texas having Arch Manning, ESPN has Utah beating Texas. ESPN said nothing more than “Big 12’s revenge in the Cotton Bowl” when providing an explanation for the Utah win. While Kyle Whittingham is one of the best coaches in the nation, 5-7 to conference champion is a tall task considering what the Ute offense has looked like without Rising.

But what ESPN wrote is way different from what Andy Staples of On3 projected this week, when he said Texas would carry the No. 1 seed as SEC Champions and defeat Georgia, Ohio State, and Notre Dame on the way to the program’s fifth national championship.

With this year being the 20-year anniversary of Texas’ last historic national title season, the two-year window of Manning as the starter continues to give Texas a chance at a ring. Pair that with the talented freshman and sophomore receivers becoming seasoned players and the No. 1 2025 recruiting class gaining footing along with other highly ranked groups, and the recipe for a championship in Austin is there.

While none of us know what the future holds, there will be no shortage of predictions about the Manning-led Longhorns this offseason. Some might be down on the Horns like ESPN’s. Some might be a lot more positive like Staples’ projection.

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But one thing’s for sure the future is bright on the Forty Acres, and probably a lot brighter than a second-round loss to Utah.

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