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A win over Oklahoma and a chalky conference tournament week are in the Texas Longhorns' best interest

Joe Cookby:Joe Cook•03/08/25•

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Chendall Weaver, Arthur Kaluma
Chendall Weaver, Arthur Kaluma (Scott Wachter-Imagn Images)

Texas needs some help to make the NCAA Tournament.

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ESPN’s Joe Lunardi labeled the Longhorns (17-13, 6-11 SEC) as one of the first four teams out on Friday along with Oklahoma, North Carolina, and Nebraska. The Longhorns matchup on Saturday night with the Sooners (18-12, 5-12 SEC) in a contest where the winner stays on the bubble and the loser ostensibly gets knocked off.

Rodney Terry and Texas need a win in that game, but they’ll also need some help throughout conference tournament week. As CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein put it…

So when looking across conference tournaments, what does Texas need to have happen along with its own success?

Right now, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the following conferences as multi-bid leagues: West Coast Conference (2), Atlantic Coast Conference (3), Mountain West (4), Big East (5), Big 12 (8), Big 10 (10), and SEC (12).

Other conferences such as the Atlantic Sun and the Southland are going to remain one-bid leagues no matter who wins the conference tournament. A bid-stealer won’t come from their ranks.

When looking at the West Coast Conference, it is in Texas’ best interest for either Gonzaga or St. Mary’s to win the WCC tournament title. If Santa Clara or Oregon State (yes, they’re in the WCC) were to go on a championship run, they wouldn’t be taking bids from the Bulldogs for the Gaels and would take one of the places available to teams on the bubble.

In the ACC, the Longhorns need one of Duke, Louisville, or Clemson to take the tournament title, as those three teams are the projected bids for the basketball-centric league struggling to focus on basketball. North Carolina going on a run would help them leap out of the last four and therefore hop the Longhorns. Another Duke conference title is likely in Texas’ best interest.

Lunardi called the Big East a five-bid league. St. John’s, Creighton, UConn, and Marquette are projected to make the field of 68, and Xavier is listed as Lunardi’s last team in. Texas needs favors from Rick Pitino, Greg McDermott, Dan Hurley, or Shaka Smart. Xavier getting knocked down a peg, however, may not be the worst thing for the Horns.

In the Mountain West, New Mexico, Colorado State, Utah State, Boise State, and San Diego State are projected to make March Madness, with both San Diego State and Boise State in the last four in category. There are a lot of moving parts out west, but a run from one of the top teams like Richard Pitino‘s Lobos would make things a little easier for Texas.

The remaining power conferences, the SEC, the Big 10, and the Big 12, are all projected to add at least eight teams. Without a doubt, a Texas SEC Tournament run that locks up a place in the field of 68 would remove all worry. The last thing Texas can afford is for a team like LSU or South Carolina to make an unlikely run. These days, however, the structure of the tournament makes that a nearly impossible task for the Longhorns, the Tigers, and the Gamecocks.

All told, Texas needs to take care of its own business starting Saturday night versus Oklahoma. But with conference tournament titles ongoing, the Longhorns need chalk and lots of it to create their best possible chance at March Madness.

NET ranking

Texas is currently the No. 39 team in the NCAA’s all-important NET Ranking.

Here’s what the NET Ranking, or NCAA Evaluation Tool, is in the NCAA’s own words.

The 2024-25 men’s basketball season marks the seventh season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. In May 2020, the NCAA announced there will be changes made to the NCAA Evaluation Tool to increase accuracy and simplify it by reducing a five-component metric to just two.

The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home.

SEC Tournament Tidbits

Right now, the Longhorns appear to be locked into the No. 13 slot in the upcoming SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament, which would put them into the 2:30 p.m. Central game on Wednesday, March 12.

Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Arkansas, three teams who have yet to lose to the Longhorns this year, are the likely candidates for Texas to play in that first round game. Every one of those games would be a Quadrant 1 game for Texas, as would ensuing games in Nashville barring epic runs from South Carolina or LSU on the opposite side of the bracket.

Quadrant 1 games

Quadrant 1 games are home contests against teams ranked 1-30, neutral site games against teams ranked 1-50, and road games against teams ranked 1-75

Record: 5-9

Wins

  • 1/15 – at No. 50 Oklahoma – 77-73
  • 1/21 – No. 17 Missouri – 61-53
  • 1/25 – No. 20 Texas A&M – 70-69
  • 2/15 – No. 13 Kentucky – 82-78
  • 3/4 – at No. 33 Mississippi State – 87-82

Losses

  • 11/4 – vs. No. 35 Ohio State – 80-72
  • 1/4 – at No. 20 Texas A&M – 80-60
  • 1/7 – No. 2 Auburn – 87-82
  • 1/11 – No. 5 Tennessee – 74-70
  • 1/18 – at No. 4 Florida – 84-60
  • 1/29 – at No. 27 Ole Miss – 72-69
  • 2/8 – at No. 43 Vanderbilt – 86-78
  • 2/11 – No. 6 Alabama – 103-80
  • 2/26 – at No. 40 Arkansas – 86-81

Quadrant 2 games

Quadrant 2 games are home contests versus teams ranked 31-75, neutral site contests against teams ranked 51-100, and away games against teams ranked 76-135

Record: 3-4

Wins

  • 11/22 – vs. No. 71 St. Joseph’s – 67-58
  • 12/4 – at No. 128 NC State – 63-59
  • 2/1 – at No. 84 LSU – 89-58

Losses

  • 12/8 – No. 34 UConn – 76-65
  • 2/1 – No. 40 Arkansas – 78-70
  • 2/22 – at No. 88 South Carolina – 84-69
  • 3/1 – No. 32 Georgia – 83-67

Quadrant 3 games

Quadrant 3 games are home contests against teams ranked 76-160, neutral site games against teams ranked 101-200, and away games against teams ranked 136-240

Record: 2-0

Wins

  • 11/21 – vs. No. 141 Syracuse – 70-66
  • 12/12 – No. 133 New Mexico State – 91-67

Quadrant 4 games

Quadrant 4 games are home games against teams ranked 161 or higher, neutral site games against teams ranked 201 or higher, and away contests against teams ranked 241 or higher

Record: 7-0

Wins

  • 11/8 – No. 283 Houston Christian – 90-59
  • 11/12 – No. 358 Chicago State – 105-58
  • 11/16 – No. 364 Mississippi Valley State – 89-43
  • 11/29 – No. 303 Delaware State – 90-68
  • 12/15 – No. 363 Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 121-57
  • 12/19 – No. 347 New Orleans – 98-62
  • 12/29 – No. 230 Northwestern State – 77-53

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Upcoming games

  • 3/8 – No. 50 Oklahoma – Quadrant 2

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