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Bad Take Tuesday: Arch Manning Will Have a 50 Piece in 2025

by:RT Young•06/17/25
Arch Manning
Arch Manning (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

Imagine the scene.

You’re walking out of the store with your family, it’s an idyllic summer day with a nice breeze and butterflies in the air. But as soon as you’ve taken your third step you’re confronted by a haggard old loon from the street. Her eyes are crossed, the hair is unkempt and wild, there’s a crazy look on her face. Her cold fingers grab you and she stares into your eyes. It’s a look that carries a sense of knowledge even amidst the chaos. Can she see into your soul? She makes a guttural sound that clears away the years of burden from her throat. She speaks.

“There’s a storm coming!” She won’t stop screaming those words. Soon, they’re the only words your children know and they’re chanting it too. Despite your initial resistance and pushing her off, you give in. Slowly you’re enveloped into the sound, it swallows you whole. Then, you see what she meant. Deep in your heart, you know it to be true.

There’s a storm coming.

Welcome to another edition of “Bad Take Tuesday” on Inside Texas.

The storm is Arch Manning.

The take: He will have 50 total touchdowns in 2025.

Why? There’s no area of the field Manning won’t be a threat to score from. And he’ll do it early, late and often.

Sidenote: Congratulations to Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore Jr. and Jack Endries, all the others who will benefit from this performance.

Just 33 players have done it the entire history of college football. Only two players did it before the year 2000: Jim McMahon on BYU and David Klinger at UH. A lot of the list is composed of quarterbacks who were Air Raid disciples. The notable exceptions of players who weren’t from that system include all-time dual threats like Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson; or Marcus Mariota and Joe Burrow on historic offenses.

Naysayers will point to the fact that no Steve Sarkisian quarterback has ever eclipsed the 50 total touchdown threshold. The closest a Sark-coached quarterback came was Mac Jones in 2020, who put up 42 total touchdowns in a 13-game season.

But I don’t think Sark will have much of a say, as funny as that sounds.

If Texas returns to the semifinals, they will play 15 or 16 games, so Arch Manning will need to average just over three touchdowns a game to eclipse 50. He did that last year in the three games which were essentially starts. There might be games like Ohio State, where Texas still wins with a two-touchdown performance. But there will also be plenty of scoring eruptions like Manning displayed last year against UTSA.

His offenses will score quicker than previous Texas offenses did under Quinn Ewers, just look at 2024 for proof. Sarkisian’s modus operandi is to bludgeon teams early with deep shots and then ball control them late. The first half of that approach will be more effective under Manning, a much better thrower of the go route and deep post than Ewers. He might get three total touchdowns in the first half of most Texas games in 2025. But will Texas offenses continue to suffer from the second-half droughts which have plagued them since 2021?

So many of those lulls under Sarkisian have been due to the issue that late-game situations come down to players more than plays. The game plan and script are usually empty in the fourth quarter of a tight game. The contest is reduced to “who will make a play?” Can you run the ball on your opponent or hero ball. It’s why late in games during the NBA Playoffs even the most gorgeous offenses come down to “me versus you.”

Manning’s dual threat ability will unlock an unseen element of the Texas run game fans haven’t seen before. That will solve much of the red zone problems. There’s also the element of Arch being the type of player who just won’t be denied.

His touchdown against Texas A&M in College Station shows what type of player he is. The one who won’t be kept out of the end zone.

You can’t stop a storm.

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