Are the dreams of a 1000-yard rusher gone for the Texas Longhorns?
At this point everyone on Earth has heard Steve Sarkisian‘s claim of always producing a 1000-yard running back. But so far this season, there has been almost an even split of the carries between Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner, which is extremely abnormal for a Sarkisian offense. Will Sark have his first year without a 1000-yard rusher at Texas?
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Sarkisian’s continued claim is mostly true. He’s had a player produce 1000 yards on the ground ever since he returned to the college game in 2019. Plus, at least one running back has produced 1000 total yards in Sarkisian’s offenses throughout his career as a play-caller save for 2008. Though there wasn’t a 1000-yard rusher on the USC Trojans that season, three different players rushed for more than 600 yards.
Back to 2024, where Texas doesn’t have a bell-cow back like Bijan Robinson or Jonathon Brooks and puts the odds of someone reaching four figures at risk.
Through eight games, Wisner has 77 carries for 409 yards and two touchdowns. Blue has 71 carries for 316 yards and four touchdowns.
To understand just how abnormal it is for Sark to have a 50-50 split, look at the charts below to see the progression and decline in the splits for carries. The reason for the second chart (right side) is the numbers unadjusted don’t accurately reflect the split between carries.
Brooks was unquestionably RB1 on the depth chart last year, but once he was injured those responsibilities shifted to CJ Baxter Jr. So any touches Baxter received after the TCU game were adjusted to be considered RB1 attempts.
(The totals for 2024 were the 2024 stats through 8 games multiplied by 2)
As you can see, it is extremely rare for the top two running backs to even sniff being within 100 carries of each other. Yet here Texas is, halfway through the season and the Longhorns’ top two running backs are separated by only 0.6 attempts on a per game basis.
Do passing targets provide more context?
To stick with the theme of charts, here is the split in carry/target totals as they have progressed through the season. There has been a massive difference in not only the number of carries/targets received, but in the consistency of receiving them as well.
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If it wasn’t clear before, it should be clear now with targets in mind that Wisner is the RB1 for Texas.
Applying the same logic from the adjusted chart earlier, it starts to look a lot more like a normal Sarkisian offense. Maybe as Blue distances himself from the Mississippi State game, he can continue to earn trust and thus get more carries and targets. It is just hard to see that happening without Wisner hitting a rough stretch or suffering an injury.
So what does this all mean for Sarkisian’s chances at having another 1000-yard running back to keep his streak going?
Wisner has averaged 83.25 yards in the games where he could be considered RB1. He would likely need Texas to make it to the semi-final or national championship game to accumulate the rest of the 600 yards.
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If Texas makes it to the national championship, it will be on the back of a balanced offense where Wisner contributes to the team successes. It is 100% still possible. But if there’s any doubt about the Longhorns chances of advancing deep the playoffs, there should be more doubt of the Longhorns producing a 1000-yard rusher.
