Breaking down the 2021 Big 12 Championship

Let’s start this off with a mea culpa. I’ve struggled to prognosticate this league in the preseason for the last few years.

It’s a tough gig, generally the difference between teams is pretty thin and it all comes down to a few key devleopments. Such as Baylor successfully converting to the flyover defense in 2019 and James Lynch putting up 10+ sacks as a big Edge. It was similar to when Iowa State returned JaQuan Bailey healthy in 2020 and dominated games with a 3-man pass-rush, although I did anticipate some of that.

This season I had Oklahoma, Iowa State, and TCU as the three strongest teams with Oklahoma taking a step back due to some space force losses and Baylor probably ending up in the middle somewhere.

I didn’t realize a few things about Oklahoma State, like how they’d get an awesome pass-rush with freshman Collin Oliver, whom I didn’t even know existed until Trace Ford was lost for the year.

On Saturday we’ll get a Baylor vs Oklahoma State matchup, which I would have had extremely low on the likelihoods in the preseason as well as through much of the actual season. Let’s review some of the unexpected turns that have defined this season and matchup.

Didn’t see that coming

Baylor fans will recall how bullish I was on Oklahoma heading into Waco and bursting the bubble of the Bears’ Big 12 title chances. Lincoln Riley with a bye week to scheme up spread stress with a generational dual-threat talent at quarterback? Slam dunk.

They opened with a 3×1 power scheme they’d installed for Spencer Rattler and run regularly in Week 2 against Nebraska, minus the backside RPO option and with no quarterback run component. From there, it didn’t get much better. It was one of the worst Oklahoma offensive gameplans I’ve ever seen and I don’t believe it was strictly due to Caleb Williams’ current limitations as a quarterback.

Especially now.

Lincoln Riley clearly had a foot out the door for at least some portion of the season. It’d be very hard to believe Oklahoma doesn’t make the Big 12 Championship game if he’d not been about to go Hollywood on them and leave for USC. This had a huge impact on the season.

Here’s another one on the periphery. I expected Texas to start Hudson Card at quarterback and make extensive use of RPOs this season. They opened the year heading in that direction, got whipped by Arkansas while the fanbase and media CLAMORED for Casey Thompson, and they pulled Card for Thompson over the rest of the year. I’ve seen the All-22 of the Arkansas game and it was a curious decision by Sark. Thompson had some big moments this year but ultimately didn’t have the right skill set or any margin for error within a pro-style scheme heavy on pushing the ball vertically.

What might Texas have been had Hudson Card fought through the Arkansas struggles and grown over the course of the year? We don’t know. Probably still not a Big 12 title contender, the defense collapsed, but there are some butterfly effects considering Texas lost several single-score games in which they held second half leads. Or maybe Card just wasn’t up for it and Sark rightly recognized the need to play the veteran. Either way, Texas didn’t have it all together and absolutely folded down the stretch.

Iowa State just ultimately had no margin for error. They lacked explosiveness in the passing game or the overpowering pass-rush they had in 2020 and absolutely gave away games with poor special teams.

What’s amazing here is the numbers in the passing game. Everyone in the Big 12 was running the ball this year, no one had terrifying passing attacks. I think one factor here is the departure of a few offensive minds, the additions of a few defensive coaches, and then the quarterback position at a few schools.

I think Oklahoma State still knows how to attack people in the throw game, but they don’t protect well and Spencer Sanders does questionable things. Texas knew how to attack people this year and did, but quarterback/wide receiver play were both inconsistent. Oklahoma dumped their more developed passer for the freak freshman talent and paid the price down the stretch.

I still think this changes in the future, I wouldn’t expect the defenses to have the last laugh. The league is about to add more good offensive minds and we’ll see where it takes us.

The Baylor defense proved to be about what I expected this year, although the skill with which they blitz is definitely really high. Undoubtedly an advantage of having Terrel Bernard and Jalen Pitre for so many years receiving high level coaching. The offense was better than I expected and really the biggest area of surprise around this team.

In particular, the offensive line was very physical in their wide zone scheme and moving Abram Smith from linebacker to running back was an inspired decision. He ran hard all year and helped bring a toughness and reliability to their run game which is largely responsible for their appearance in the Big 12 title game.

Space warfare in the 2021 Big 12 Championship

Much of the Big 12 was less comfortable winning games in space this season and the Oklahoma State defense was a big part of that.

At the end of the day, they were primarily a standard 4-2-5 quarters team who would bracket the slot in 2-read coverage and have the backside safety lend help as needed to the run, the field, or the solo-side receiver on a post route. But they line up in so many different ways before the snap and bring enough different pressures it was very difficult for anyone to get a good bead on what exactly they were doing. It was very common for opposing quarterbacks to drop back, not see what they expected, try to get to another part of their read and then get buried by pass-rushers.

As was the case in 2020, a major part of their formula was the left cornerback. Just as was the case in 2020, a 5th/6th year senior with good athleticism but inconsistent film to that point made a leap and played some lockdown coverage in man. This time instead of Ro Williams it was Christian Holmes.

In both instances, the stats aren’t all that much to look at. Ro Williams had 18 tackles, one tackle for loss, and three pass break-ups in 2020. This season Holmes had 31 tackles, one pick, and five break-ups. In both instances it was more of a “the dog who isn’t barking” effect. Teams didn’t even try Williams or Holmes much, which is very significant because both played left cornerback and both played a good amount of man coverage.

Even the recent Big 12 list had Jarrick Bernard-Converse 1st team and Holmes 2nd team at cornerback. Both had good seasons but Williams had tougher asks from their scheme every week and was a silent assassin.

In a related story, Oklahoma State had six different players on their defense with three or more sacks. Devin Harper had six and Malcolm Rodriguez had three within their nasty array of linebacker blitzes. Brock Martin had six and Collin Oliver had 8.5 serving in their “Leo” pass-rushing position. Then D-line fixtures Israel Antwine and Tyler Lacy contributed three and 3.5 respectively. They could get after you with a base pass rush, with exotic blitzes, or with pure zero pressure. Nasty stuff.

They were also a tough unit to run on because of the size and strength of Lacy, Antwine, Brandon Evers, and Jayden Jernigan and also because of their size and deployment at the hash safety positions where Kolby Harvell-Peel (6-foot-0, 210 pounds) and Jason Taylor (6-foot-0, 215 pounds) patrolled flat-footed.

What has made this defense so great is that the obvious way to attack them is by throwing the ball but their flyover pre-snap structure and quality at cornerback and in the pass-rush makes them difficult to beat in space. So teams bang their heads against the wall in the run game.

Baylor’s own “space force” on offense is limited but mostly by their Admirals at the quarterback position. Tyquan Thornton has been good on some of their adjustable routes outside and they’ll scheme up shots on play-action where he’s the deep threat taking the top off, if only to open space underneath for Ben Sims (tight end) or R.J. Sneed (possession receiver).

Tyquan Thornton vs Christian Holmes in man coverage is a big battle for this game, but one we may not see take on much importance. When the Bears took their shots in round one they’d target JBC and their quarterback was Gerry Bohanon.

Creating time is another big question. Ostensibly the Bears have the league’s best left tackle in Connor Galvin and a good play-action game, those two forces should allow them to take some shots now and again. This is only a piece of the pie though, Oklahoma State does not have a Connor Galvin but they too can create time now and again for Spencer Sanders to take a shot on play-action.

The bigger question is how well the rest of the Baylor line handles the OSU blitz game, whether the quarterback can see the opportunities clearly, and then what happens on obvious passing downs when play-action can’t save them.

On the flip side, Oklahoma State is quietly very dependent on space offensively. Charlie Dickey did a tremendous job with their offensive line this season (again) and they run inside/outside zone pretty well, but this team moves the football and scores because of chunk plays. Every now and again they’ll hit a slip screen, Sanders will break a run, they’ll hit Brennan Pressley in space, Jaylen Warren will crease the defense, or Sanders will throw a dart down the field to Tay Martin. The only consistent about it all is that consistently SOMETHING will happen and an athlete will find space and make something happen.

It’s not hard to hold down the Oklahoma State offense but it is hard to completely shut them out.

The Tay Martin vs Baylor cornerbacks is a big matchup. I haven’t worked out the specific rhyme or reason as to who plays where at cornerback for the Bears but Raleigh Texada continues to be prominently involved and can certainly be attacked and none of them can lock Martin down 1-on-1.

I think the Bears are vulnerable in space because of their lack of a really good cornerback as well as the size of their defensive line (big run stoppers) and their need to involve linebackers to effectively rush the passer. The RPO/play-action spread attack most teams favor actually plays into their hands because they are so effective at blitzing late and blowing up play-action protection schemes and they can disguise and challenge RPO routes. Spread them out to throw and they are a little more exposed both to having their calls recognized and also to getting beat badly when the ball finds space. Is Spencer Sanders the guy to make them pay? Probably not, at least not as a pocket passer.

Space admirals

Normally you’d use field general when describing quarterback play but given our theme on space here at Flyover Football, admiral seems more fitting.

This is where you see a big difference in this game and why it’s hard to foresee the Bears coming out ahead.

Gerry Bohanon can be fooled into throwing picks, he doesn’t yet have a big bank of experiences or quick natural processing. He tends to rely on his scheme and his ability to throw the ball with touch, which are both good qualities about him, but they make it hard to navigate the asteroid field Jim Knowles creates for quarterbacks. Where Bohanon gives you a potential edge is as a runner, both on option or direct snap. In many ways he’s a close facsimile to Spencer Sanders himself. The difference is Sanders is quicker, much more experienced, throws harder (not better or worse, it’s just different), and he doesn’t have a hamstring injury.

If Bohanon plays, which I doubt, it’s hard to see him being effective enough to win this game. A hobbled Bohanon just doesn’t offer enough.

Blake Shapen is an intriguing passer I discussed after the BU-TT Bowl. He’s pretty accurate, has a quick release, and can be fooled and rattled at least as easily as Bohanon. In a game like this you typically want either the veteran quarterback who’s seen some things and can hold it together, see the defense, and find ways to win…or the guy who can just run the ball and help contribute offense in that fashion. Baylor seems likely to have neither whereas Spencer Sanders has learned how to calm himself down when things go wrong, will avoid compounding mistakes, and is a gritty and explosive runner who will use his legs to finish games.

In this regard, Oklahoma State has such a massive edge, even though Spencer Sanders is hardly a brilliant quarterback. He and Mike Gundy have a great working relationship and they’ve navigated this galaxy before.

The Baylor path to victory

The Oklahoma State path to victory is pretty obvious. Blow up their offense by loading the box against the run and goading hobbled Bohanon or inexperienced Shapen into missing opportunities and committing turnovers. Combine that with a few big plays by the Cowboy offense and you have a winning margin of some magnitude.

The Baylor path is trickier but it exists.

First, it’s hard to see Baylor winning this game if they can’t move the ball with the run game. They could hardly run at all last time, on the surface, but Abram Smith actually had 10 carries for 97 yards which represented essentially all of their ground game production. Now much of that was on a 55-yard run and Smith is clearly kinda banged up now, but it’s title time and he’ll do everything he can.

The biggest concern here is probably, “if it was bad before, what about now that we don’t have the zone-keeper dimension to the offense?” Oklahoma State is going to sell out so hard on the zone play and take their chances with some Shapen keepers or Bohanon trying to run on a bad hammy, it’s just obvious. When titles are on the line, defensive gameplans get built around big bets. Maybe you wouldn’t double a particular receiver as much normally but you do in the title game.

Offensively you’ll typically lean harder into what you do well. Like the running quarterback getting 20 carries rather than 8-12, or the good passer getting in the spread and throwing 40-50 times. For Baylor this is unquestionably to load the box with extra blockers and give Abram Smith as much as he can tolerate.

Can that work against this Oklahoma State defense? Maybe some, it could be hard to score a lot but you probably don’t need a lot of scoring to win unless you’re turning the ball over. Turnovers are less likely if your gameplan is heavy on ground and pound.

Then there are two potential sources of points for Baylor which have been huge for them this season. Turnovers forced by their own defense and special teams. Couldn’t a Trestan Ebner kick return flip this game? Or a Pitre/Bernard blitz that results in a sack-strip or defensive touchdown?

It’s not hard to foresee a game where Blake Shapen plays a pretty limited game but manages to avoid turnovers and perhaps hits a touchdown pass in the red zone while Sanders takes a heavier load but has the one big miscue which defines the game. Sometimes the percentages work in your favor. You got here Baylor, you have a puncher’s chance.

But overall, I expect Oklahoma State’s experience and composure to make the difference in this game, potentially in a big margin if the Baylor quarterback situation goes south.

If I’m a Baylor fan, a Big 12 Championship is always amazing, but I’d like to see my team pave the way for future seasons by drawing a NY6 Bowl or otherwise big matchup against a respected, national power. Baylor has won Big 12 Championships before but they’ve never beaten a good, top 10 type team from outside the conference on a big stage. The Art Briles teams went down against Central Florida and Michigan State with bowl wins over teams like a 7-6 Sark Washington team (2011) or the UNC Tar Heels (2015). Matt Rhule went to two bowl games, beating Vanderbilt and losing to Georgia.

For Oklahoma State, a Big 12 Championship would be sustenance for years to come. Then it’s all in the hands of the selection committee to determine what comes next…

Who will win the Big 12 Championship? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board!