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Can Bijan Robinson run his way into Heisman contention?

Eric Nahlinby:Eric Nahlin•10/12/22
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Bijan Robinson (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

At the midway point in the season, Texas preseason All-American running back Bijan Robinson is on pace for 1300 yards rushing and 20 touchdowns. Those aren’t normally Heisman Trophy contending numbers, but he’s also a dangerous receiver and UT’s offense figures to hit another gear if quarterback Quinn Ewers remains healthy. 

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Right now the Heisman is a CJ Stroud runaway, but there are many factors in Robinson’s favor we’ll look at which could at least thrust the junior into the national conversation. 

Quinn Ewers’ healthy return 

We’ve often seen exceptional quarterback play rob from running back production but that’s not how Steve Sarkisian’s system works. Sark’s 2020 offense featured three players who finished in the Top 5 in Heisman voting. The triumvirate consisted of winner DeVonta Smith at wide receiver, third place finisher Mac Jones at quarterback, and fifth place finisher Najee Harris at running back. 

Despite a passing game that produced the rare winner at wide receiver, Harris rushed for 1466 yards and 26 touchdowns. He also added 43 receptions and four touchdowns through the air. 

Robinson likely won’t approach those numbers in total, however he’s going to start to receive the same benefits Harris did as the Texas offense continues to gel with the return of the golden armed and golden mulleted Ewers.

Unlike Harris, Robinson doesn’t have the benefit of the best O-line in the country, but Ewers’ ability to threaten the whole field should allow for the type of breathing room in the running game we’ve yet to see. 

Previously I didn’t buy Robinson as a Heisman candidate because a run blocking unit the offensive line is a year away, but Sark has plenty of tricks up his sleeve to create balanced offense, especially with Ewers back in the fold. 

Exciting player in an exciting offense

Robinson is an unmistakable natural talent capable of making a big play out of nothing. If these sorts of plays occur in high leverage situations they become Heisman moments. Rarely do you see a runner who can make WOW plays through stop-start ability and reversing field and also stiff-arming a hapless defender in the ground or simply running through tacklers, but Robinson demonstrates that ability every Saturday. 

As a receiver, you don’t see a lot of running backs with hands and body control like this.

Robinson is both an athletic and physical marvel and it’s likely we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

UT’s rising national profile

Texas probably should have defeated Alabama and absolutely smoked Oklahoma in the Red River Shutout. Both high profile performances have earned notice from metrics nerds and astute members of college football media like Joel Klatt.

Say what you will about the position OU finds itself, Texas did exactly what it should have done to the Sooners and given the gravity of that rivalry game, it put the Longhorns on a national coverage loop. 

Texas is not back, but the narrow loss to the Crimson Tide, after losing Ewers at the end of the first quarter, coupled with blasting the Sooners upon Ewers’ return, has media and corresponding voters paying closer attention. 

If by season’s end Texas does appear to be back, Robinson will make for a useful avatar for UT’s team-wide turnaround.

Strength of schedule and conference title run

The Big 12 is a solid conference from top to bottom but so far the Horns have likely played teams who will finish in the bottom half of the conference. That doesn’t exactly change this weekend with 3-3 Iowa State headed to Austin, though the Cyclones do have a very strong defense, but it will change the following week as Texas heads to Stillwater to face No. 8 ranked Oklahoma State. 

If Texas handles Iowa State and Oklahoma State defeats TCU on the road this weekend, perhaps the biggest game of the conference season will occur the following Saturday. With that comes a lot of attention.

Texas will then have a bye before facing Kansas State and a good Wildcats defense. That’s three opportunities in a row for the Texas offense and its star running back to put up big numbers against good defenses who look to take away the pass first.

After K-State, Texas’ final third of the season consists of TCU, Kansas, and Baylor. 

As the season wears on, and assuming UT plays well, it’s likely the Big 12’s growing reputation for having the most parity among teams from top to bottom will earn UT’s season and individual numbers more respect. 

Brand and marketability 

If Texas goes on a legitimate win streak you’ll see the dusty Texas hype machine back up and running. Given the combined Q rating of the University and the extremely likable Robinson, you’ll see national outlets and analysts start to discuss Robinson as a viable candidate. For the same reasons Robinson is a hit with local and national businesses, he’ll be a hit with Heisman voters.

Robinson would also get a bounce from the attention given to the overall offense and Ewers. Ewers’ own stretch run could set the stage to become a favorite for the award next season.

Beyond the front-runner it’s a wide open field 

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud was the smart pick to win the Heisman before the season and he’s an even safer bet at this point. I’m under no illusions anyone other than the Ohio State quarterback will be handed the trophy, but given this list of names currently in contention, I think it’s possible Robinson could play his way into an all expense paid trip to New York City in December if the above factors align.

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