Dancing, Dayton, or Dread: The path ahead for Texas ends in one of three places

At this point, three outcomes remain for the Texas Longhorns with five regular season games left. Rodney Terry‘s team will either be dancing as part of the field of 68 with one of the last four byes, be sent to Dayton, Ohio as part of the First Four, or miss the NCAA Tournament entirely for the first time since the 2018-19 season.

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Texas is currently No. 31 in the all-important NET rankings, the formula the NCAA uses as its primary sorting tool for determining the field of 68. Texas boasts a 7-10 record in Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 games, which for the Longhorns includes most SEC games plus a handful of contests from non-conference play. Most of those games are against teams in the top 90 of the NET rankings, including a few matchups with the best of the best in college basketball this year.

The Longhorns are 16-10 overall and 5-8 in SEC play, but they have a couple of things going for them right now. First is a mangable remaining schedule. Only one team on the remaining slate, Mississippi State, has a .500 record in conference. In fact, every other team left other than State, South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, and Oklahoma, are below the Longhorns in the SEC standings.

The other thing going for Terry’s crew is the strength of the league. The SEC is by far the toughest conference in the nation, and that strength undoubtedly boosts Texas’ metrics. An 8-10 record in the league would likely create a strong enough resume for tournament selection. A 7-11 record? That’d be cutting it close, but still might earn a place in the tourney.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently had Texas listed as a No. 10 seed entering Monday’s action.

pic.twitter.com/JBe9jTi3DQ

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 17, 2025

Though No. 10 is below where the Longhorns would like to be, that projection is incredibly important as it just barely keeps the Longhorns out of the First Four. Lunardi had the Longhorns as one of his last four byes, avoiding Dayton and creating an obviously easier path in March Madness.

That’s where most of the 90 projections available on BracketMatrix.com had Texas as well, though a significant number of prognosticators, 18 of the 90, left Texas out of their field of 68. Others still had Texas as a No. 11 seed, a position that puts them at risk of playing in the First Four. The Longhorns’ average seed was 10.44.

Dancing is preferred. Dayton, though technically part of the NCAA Tournament, is not where Texas wants to be. Playing in the First Four functions as a punishment of sorts for just barely avoiding the NIT. With the Longhorns already needing to traverse injury problems with players like Arthur Kaluma, Chendall Weaver, Tramon Mark, and Devon Pryor, more wear and tear is a detriment to what’s become a shorter rotation. That punishment is better than the alternative of not making it, but punishment nonetheless.

Outright missing the NCAA Tournament would entail a late-season collapse over these final five games, a quick exit in the SEC tournament, and a gloomier picture for the future of the program than the current one that already features a significant amount of turnover heading into the 2025-26 season.

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Quadrant 1 games

Quadrant 1 games are home contests against teams ranked 1-30, neutral site games against teams ranked 1-50, and road games against teams ranked 1-75

Record: 4-8

Wins

• 1/15 – at No. 52 Oklahoma – 77-73
• 1/21 – No. 16 Missouri – 61-53
• 1/25 – No. 11 Texas A&M – 70-69
• 2/14 – No. 17 Kentucky – 82-78

Losses

• 11/4 – vs. No. 30 Ohio State – 80-72
• 1/4 – at No. 11 Texas A&M – 80-60
• 1/7 – No. 1 Auburn – 87-82
• 1/11 – No. 5 Tennessee – 74-70
• 1/18 – at No. 4 Florida – 84-60
• 1/29 – at No. 25 Ole Miss – 72-69
• 2/8 – at No. 41 Vanderbilt – 78-86
• 2/11 – No. 6 Alabama 103-80

Quadrant 2 games

Quadrant 2 games are home contests versus teams ranked 31-75, neutral site contests against teams ranked 51-100, and away games against teams ranked 76-135

Record: 3-2

Wins

• 11/22 – vs. No. 85 St. Joseph’s – 67-58
• 12/4 – at No. 124 NC State – 63-59
• 2/1 – at No. 82 LSU – 89-58

Losses

• 12/8 – No. 35 UConn – 76-65
• 2/5 – No. 42 Arkansas – 78-7-

Quadrant 3 games

Quadrant 3 games are home contests against teams ranked 76-160, neutral site games against teams ranked 101-200, and away games against teams ranked 136-240

Record: 1-0

Wins

• 11/21 – vs. No. 147 Syracuse – 70-66

Quadrant 4 games

Quadrant 4 games are home games against teams ranked 161 or higher, neutral site games against teams ranked 201 or higher, and away contests against teams ranked 241 or higher

Record: 8-0

Wins

• 11/8 – No. 279 Houston Christian – 90-59
• 11/12 – No. 356 Chicago State – 105-58
• 11/16 – No. 364 Mississippi Valley State – 89-43
• 11/29 – No. 292 Delaware State – 90-68
• 12/12 – No. 164 New Mexico State – 91-67
• 12/15 – No. 363 Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 121-57
• 12/19 – No. 337 New Orleans – 98-62
• 12/29 – No. 238 Northwestern State – 77-53

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Upcoming games

• 2/22 – at No. 91 South Carolina – Quadrant 2
• 2/26 – at No. 42 Arkansas – Quadrant 1
• 3/1 – No. 39 Georgia – Quadrant 2
• 3/4 – at No. 29 Mississippi State – Quadrant 1
• 3/8 – No. 52 Oklahoma – Quadrant 2