Diving into advanced stats ahead of the Red River Shootout
On Sunday, Inside Texas offered a statistical comparison between the No. 3 Texas Longhorns and the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners. That mostly featured regular ol’ counting stats, and those foretell an exciting matchup between the two undefeated squads.
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What do the advanced stats say? Whether it’s FPI or SP+ from ESPN, numbers from Parker Fleming at CFB-Graphs.com, or even some old-school advanced ratings like Massey or Saragin, they each tell a little bit more than something like total defense could.
CFB-Graphs.com
In CFB-Graph.com’s world, blue is good and red is bad. Texas has come a long way from a couple of weeks ago when it was dead last in offensive success rate, with that metric light blue instead of a menacing dark red.
There’s blue all over this one. Oklahoma has made good use of an explosive offense that’s No. 2 in the nation in net points per drive. Every time they touch the ball, the Sooners are averaging just under a field goal. That’s productive. Texas isn’t far behind a 1.96 points per drive. The Sooner defense is looking much better than last year’s woeful operation, too.
The Texas defense is incredibly stout, in the top 10 of nearly every category on the graph and No. 3 overall in success rate. The defense is also No. 3 in “Eckel rate,” which CFB-Graphs.com says is how often a team creates a quality possession. A quality possession is defined as “if a team scores a big play touchdown or gets a first down inside the opponent’s 40-yard line.”
That means opponents are scoring a “big play touchdown” or recording a first down inside the Texas 40 on just 23.7 percent of possessions, an impressive stat. Even more impressive is that among those “successful possessions” opponents are often getting stonewalled once they reach Texas territory. That’s the 0.5 points per Eckel, a figure that’s tops in the nation.
Further down the page in a box featuring the Texas offense versus the Oklahoma defense, this is where we see one of two instances of red on the screen.
The Longhorn offense is No. 89 in points per Eckel, which means that each quality possession with a first down inside the opponent’s 40 produces 3.39 points. Texas is averaging just over a field goal any time it essentially gets into field goal range.
That was on display versus Kansas, where Texas had missed field goals and couldn’t score red zone touchdowns in the early portions of the contest versus the Jayhawks. There were other more successful attempts, but it’s been a small recurring theme for Steve Sarkisian‘s team dating back to the Wyoming game.
The other red box is regarding success rate. The Longhorns are No. 83 in offensive success rate, which seeks to answer the simple question of “how frequently did you improve your situation” using CFB-Graphs.com’s formula.
Top 10
- 1Breaking
Jackson Arnold
OU QB to enter transfer portal
- 2
Alabama flips LSU commit
Tide moves up the rankings
- 3New
Ben Herbstreit
POTUS sends heartfelt note
- 4
Lincoln Riley
USC coach talks job rumors
- 5Hot
Jahkeem Stewart
USC lands five-star DL
Those are the only small deficiencies in the entire graph. Of course, the numbers that are clear as day are win probability and projected points.
CFB-Graphs.com has Texas’ win probability at 68.58 percent, and projected points at 32.88 to Oklahoma’s 25.62.
ESPN FPI
Not all of the computers see Texas as the favorite. ESPN’s FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 133; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
Oklahoma is currently FPI’s No. 2 team. Texas checks in at No. 4.
Oddly sandwiched between them? No. 3 Alabama.
According to Bovada.lv, Texas is currently a 6.5-point favorite over the Sooners.
Some other metrics from ESPN include…
Strength of Record:
“Reflects chance that an average top 25 would have team’s record or better, given the schedule.”
- Texas – No. 1
- Oklahoma – No. 4
Strength of Schedule:
“Rank among all FBS teams of games already played schedule strength, from perspective of an average top 25 team.”
- Texas – No. 16
- Oklahoma – No. 82
ESPN SP+
ESPN also has SP+, a predictive and forward-facing formula created by Bill Connelly. SP+ has been friend and foe to Texas in recent years.
Per Connelly, SP+ is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.”
SP+ has Texas just squeaking by the Sooners
Overall SP+
- Texas – No. 3
- Oklahoma – No. 9
Offensive SP+
- Texas – No. 8
- Oklahoma – No. 4
Defensive SP+
- Texas – No. 8
- Oklahoma – No. 19
Special Teams SP+
- Texas – No. 58
- Oklahoma – No. 43
Massey Ratings
- Texas – No. 3
- Oklahoma – No. 6
Saragin Ratings
- Texas – No. 5
- Oklahoma – No. 6
