Does Texas have the easiest path to the CFP Semi-Finals?
During the numerous College Football Playoffs rankings shows throughout the year, the proverbial horse was beaten dead when it comes to strength of schedule for Texas in 2024. Not much is changing for the playoffs either, and all Texas can do is play the teams that the powers that be decide place in front of them. Ironically, losing the SEC Championship game may have been a benefit.
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When you look at the draw that the Longhorns received, it is the most favorable of all teams playing in the first round. Sure it would be nice to not worry about playing a game until December 31st or January 1st. That would give Isaiah Bond‘s injury time to heal along with giving Kelvin Banks and Quinn Ewers any extra time they may need. However, that would also mean a tougher opponent in the quarterfinals. Had the Longhorns won the SEC Championship they would be the #2 seed behind Oregon, giving a likely matchup in the quarters against the #5 or #8 ranked teams.
(Bracket from ESPN.com)
When you look at the rankings of the teams, not the seeds…it isn’t even close. Penn State comes in again with the second best looking draw given that the No. 3 seed is ranked No. 9, with Texas getting the 12th ranked team in the quarterfinal pairing. Much better than Tennessee or Ohio State having Oregon looming immediately, or had Texas won, having either Notre Dame, Penn State, or Georgia with Indiana as possibilities. If Texas finds itself in the semifinals, expect to see a lot of noise about whether Texas belongs or not.
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Texas also probably got the best possible order of teams to face as well. Sure, Clemson is coming off a big win in a close game against SMU to secure the ACC Championship, but they also just lost to South Carolina the week before. That pairs with a loss to Louisville 8 games into the season. Compare that to Arizona State who just beat Iowa State handily to win their sixth straight. The last game they lost was their 7th game of the season. This Arizona State team was getting red hot at the most dangerous time of the year. State sitting on ice for 23-34 days is the best gift Texas (or Clemson) could have asked for this Christmas outside of a round 1 win.
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First, Texas has to win the game this Saturday at home. Who knows what happens with the playoff system after the 2025 season when the two-year contract for 12 teams runs out. Hopefully they keep home playoff games, but if they don’t let’s enjoy the ones we do get. Let’s also appreciate Texas may not have a path this favorable for quite some time.