Five keys to a Texas victory against Iowa State in Ames

There haven’t been many games where the season was on the line for both Texas (9-1, 6-1 conference) and Iowa State (6-4, 5-2). Each program is in contention for the Big 12 title game. Texas is in sole possession of first place but due to tiebreakers could go from the penthouse to the outhouse in the span of three hours.

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Iowa State’s path isn’t easy but Matt Campbell‘s team holds a win over Oklahoma State and still plays Kansas State next week.

Despite the stakes, Texas can make this easy if it plays well. Playing well isn’t exclusive to these five keys, but surely these could have an out-sized effect on the game.

1. Down-to-down Efficiency 

Like a couple of famous Toms — Tom Brady and Turtle Tom — Matt Campbell likes to take the air out of the ball. Iowa State is 113th in plays per game at 64.2. That’s slightly up over the last two years. Texas is 39th at 71.9, but that number is likely to be lower tonight. 

Texas can’t afford a ton of wasted plays. The offense needs to convert on money downs to extend drives. Any punt or turnover to Iowa State could keep the ball out of the offense’s possession for quite a while. 

On the flip side, if Texas can create an early lead the shorter the game the better, especially the way Houston, Kansas State, and TCU mounted furious comebacks over multiple possessions.

2. Utilize Speed Advantage

On the surface, Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defense should be fast simply by the personnel choice of “going smaller.” Maybe it is fast in aggregate, but individually, ISU’s defenders up the middle at linebacker and safety sacrifice speed for size. Texas has the speed advantage over most teams but especially tonight against the Cyclones. 

This advantage extends beyond Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell and to tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders depending on who’s covering him. Without a nickel, it extends to Jordan Whittington, too. He should get a waiver to wear orange while the rest of the team wears white so he’s more visible.

While defensive coordinator Jon Heacock‘s defense is designed to provide extra help on dangerous receivers, Texas has too much speed on the field to double everyone.

Sark needs to feed the NFL athletes against the disciplined athletes and let the NFL athletes make plays. That’s his predisposition, let’s see it manifest despite ISU’s “smaller” personnel package.

3. D-line Dominance

Iowa State has a balanced diet of run/pass but that doesn’t necessarily mean the offense is in great shape. It’s in okay shape — Iowa State is a dad bod that eats okay during the week but parties on the weekend. While that’s an exceptional way to live, the weekend is when you need to be at peak performance. 

If the D-line can control the run game and get pressure on Rocco Becht, life becomes much easier against Campbell’s straight-forward offense. 

And of course, we all want to see D-line dominance for the pure uncut schadenfreude.

4. Minimize Run-Game Drop-off

As I mentioned on State of the Program on Wednesday, we’re going to find out how good Jonathan Brooks was through his absence. He created a lot of subtle and not-so subtle yardage with his complete running back skill-set. 

This is a huge game and opportunity for CJ Baxter to announce himself to the college football world and remind Texas fans why he was named the starter heading into the season. The talent is there but the experience and health hasn’t been so far. With a week of preparation and the confidence of knowing he’s the man, how will he respond?

Fortunately, if Baxter struggles there are plenty of horses in the stable deserving of more carries. 

Somebody needs to exploit the run defense enough to open up the different layers of the passing game.

5. Physical and Focused for Four Quarters

A number of people enjoyed the Stop and Smell the Roses post from Wednesday but truth be told I almost wondered aloud Will Close Second Halves Ultimately Cost Texas? Those two articles are not in tension. Even while celebrating the 9-1 start I attempted to convey some hesitance towards the remainder of the season if Texas doesn’t improve its consistency.

If the team plays physical and focused nothing Iowa State does tonight will matter. If Texas plays poorly for stretches, particularly in the second half, then we need to hope it packed its rabbit’s foot.  

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This can be a season-defining game but only if they lose. If they win, which I believe they will, they’re headed for a more high profile game that will define the season.