Five National Championship Game Thoughts

Let’s talk about the matchup in Atlanta, the one Texas fell one victory short of being part of. Notre Dame and Ohio State will battle tonight at 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN.

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Ryan Day‘s journey home

Jim Harbaugh‘s born on third base comments have yet to be disproven. Of course, that’s not to say Ryan Day isn’t a good football coach. His record is 69-10 and he’s never had more than two losses in a season. He’s also almost always had the talent advantage save for a few late- or postseason matchups.

But with every advantage a football program could ask for, Day has not ventured this deep into the tournament in a program without inherited pieces. His best run was in 2020, a season where the Big 10 made multiple concessions to put a Buckeyes team filled with players recruited by Urban Meyer in the conference title game. Credit to Day to take advantage of those opportunities before running into the 2020 Alabama buzzsaw.

In the wake of last year’s Michigan national title, Ohio State went all in and put all the pressure on Day to make things happen with the most talented roster in college football. Aside from a quarterback mismanaging the clock in Eugene, Ore. and a stubborn plan of attack versus Michigan, Ohio State has lived up to being a dominant team despite their two losses and No. 8 seeding.

Texas may have given the Buckeyes the toughest challenge they’ll face this year, and the Longhorns still lost by two touchdowns and failed to eclipse 20 points.

Day is on the precipice of getting to a level Ohio State expects to be at yearly despite a considerable amount of pressure. While his program gave him a lot of advantages available to few others in the nation, he has organized the tremendous strengths of Ohio State football into a powerhouse during the 2024 season.

Put another way, he’s about to head home on a sacrifice fly.

A star in Marcus Freeman

Notre Dame is likeable because of its head coach.

Think about that again. Notre Dame, a program that enjoys a luxurious standing afforded to no other football team thanks to stubborn adherence to a bygone tradition and a nice healthy annual check from NBCUniversal, is likeable because of its head coach.

Marcus Freeman has turned Notre Dame into a bit of a darling in the context of this matchup. A charismatic, young CEO coach flanked by top-notch coordinators, Freeman has squeezed every ounce of juice from a program that does not feature an explosive passing attack but does boast a fantastic defense predicated on toughness.

Freeman utilizes analytics and gamesmanship at the highest level, just ask Kirby Smart. He also steals yards, possessions, and points in special teams in a way few other coaches are able to replicate.

Part of the allure of Freeman is the man he replaced. Brian Kelly snatched Freeman ahead of the 2021 season to call his defenses. When the 2021 season was winding down, Kelly left Notre Dame for a SEC pay raise at LSU. Though never vocalized by Kelly, the decision made it clear he believed that his standing at a bona fide blue blood was not high enough for him to win a national championship. That’s despite playing for one in 2012 and appearing in the four-team College Football Playoff twice.

Freeman is knocking on a door Kelly though was locked at Notre Dame in his third year.

One of the biggest villains in college football in Notre Dame is enjoying near anti-hero status because of its likeable coach in Freeman. It’s due to a variety of reasons, but the one that endures him to so many is that he can plain coach ball.

Quarterbacks

I likened Will Howard to Keanu Reeves’ character in Speed. He’s charged with driving the bus and making sure it doesn’t go below a certain speed. Howard has been stellar in the CFP with credit due to his wideouts. His challenge is to be the quarterback who makes sure all the talent around him makes it to the finish line, a considerable one but one that he’s lived up to all year.

Riley Leonard is the bus for the Fighting Irish. The ball is in his hands so often. ND has six games where he’s been the main playmaker on a given snap at least 40 times.

Howard has the benefit of fantastic skill around him. Leonard, not so much, but that’s not to discount the running game boasted by the Irish.

A heroic effort from Howard makes this a blowout. A similar one from Leonard makes this a competitive game.

Questions that will define the game

Does Notre Dame continue to play a ton of man coverage despite battling star receivers like Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate? That’d be Freeman dancing with the one that brung ya, but it would leave his defense susceptible to attack from possibly the best receiver corps in the country.

Or does he mix things up a bit in order to utilize a strategy others like Texas and Michigan have used with success. It will be tough, as the Irish are getting thin at defensive tackle.

Betting the game

Ohio State is currently an 8.5 point favorite over the Fighting Irish, a larger spread than the 6.0-point spread between the Buckeyes and the underdog Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl. The over/under is 45.5, which creates an implied score around 27-19 Ohio State.

Ohio State is a -400 favorite on the moneyline, while Notre Dame carries +310 odds.

A two-possession game sounds about right here, and if it does hit the over it’s because Ohio State will run away with it.

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Pick: Ohio State -8.5, over.