Five quick thoughts before the Texas Longhorns play the Oklahoma Sooners

The 2:30 kick off for the 2024 Red River Shootout is a blessing for anyone with morning activities to attend to before the game or for those who are attending live. However, if your calendar is cleared, it’s just three extra hours of waiting. For me, it’s three extra hours of waiting and rethinking all the matchups and dimensions for what’s typically the most important game of the season for the Texas Longhorns.

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So, here are five quick thoughts on how this game might play out when it finally comes to a head after an extended, two-week build-up.

Quick thought no. 1: The opening script is essential for OU

Oklahoma has had two weeks to cook up combinations to throw at the Longhorns. It is essential their opening script on the first two drives generates a touchdown to create belief on their sideline and sow doubt and hesitation from the Longhorn defense as they sort it all out.

Additionally, it’s nearly a given the Sooners will draw up several plays designed to punish the Longhorns for keying quarterback Michael Hawkins and spring other players open for big plays. Wide receiver Brenen Thompson is fast, so is freshman running back Taylor Tatum, OU needs to create some big plays with those guys early in order to force the Longhorns to rethink their defensive gameplan and give attention to players they might not have taken very seriously before the game.

If neither of these drives result in a touchdown for Oklahoma, it’s going to be tough sledding for them over the rest of the game. Texas will adjust to whatever the Sooners run and have enough veterans on defense to maintain composure and slowly apply the clamps even if they are shocked or hit by whatever OU runs early. A pair of field goals should be as much as Texas allows, six points for the Sooners won’t be enough if they can’t score consistently later in the game.

Quick thought no. 2: Texas should consider holding back early

Overall I think the right approach in this game for Texas is to play man coverage outside and allow the safeties and linebackers to focus much more attention on the offensive backfield than you’d normally risk. Additionally, throwing pressure and pressure looks at an Oklahoma O-line which doesn’t have much practice working together is a good recipe for creating stress and panic that could turn this game into a total route.

However, it might be a good idea to play normal two-high base defense early in the game against the Sooners’ opening script just to see what Seth Littrell and the Sooner offensive staff have cooked up. Or to play conservative single-high with a spy devoted to Hawkins. If Texas can force the Sooners to earn their way down the field early with sustained drives, they should be able to stop any explosive plays and limit the Sooners to field goals or punts on those opening drives.

From then on, after you’ve seen the main formations and concepts the Sooners have brought into the game, you can get after them. Hold back like Fairfax until you see what you need, then unleash.

Quick thought no. 3: Don’t hold back on offense

Eric’s recent team notes on Texas’ mindset heading into this game confirmed something I suspected based on last year’s outcome in this game. Namely, that Steve Sarkisian didn’t quite understand what he was getting into in this contest.

Last year Texas’ opening script included plays the Longhorns had run before and the Sooner defense pounced on htem. They also had a disastrous snap in one of their red zone trips in which they ran a sweep for Jordan Whittington from under center they’d run before. If you’ve run it before, a Brent Venables Oklahoma defense has seen it on film and are ready for it. Gimmicky motions and play designs in this game need to be novel and not obvious.

Most of us who have watched this rivalry game for decades and have seen Venables pacing the opposing sideline 10+ times could have told Sark that he needed to create hesitation and use something OU’s defenders hadn’t seen before in the early going. Sark likes to “throw jabs” as he put it in his press conference and see what he’s getting before throwing the “overhand right.” Well, you can’t just tip toe in and throw jabs in this bout. The opponent already has you timed and will throw his overhand right as a counter.

I think Sark gets it this year, we’ll see how that looks.

Quick thought no. 4: The only rule is stars need to dominate

I’ve seen people apply a number of different principles to this game. “The team that wins in the trenches wins this game!” Or, “the key is to have a veteran quarterback who’s been in this environment before!”

There are glaring historical exceptions to most of those rules.

Dominating in the trenches is very difficult in this game, both teams usually have some level of parity in terms of size and talent (although that OU O-line is suspect this year), and both teams usually come into this game ready to fight to the death.

What I’ve found to be consistently true is the winning team sets up their best players to control the game. Texas jumped out to a huge lead early on Oklahoma in 2021 but struggled to get Bijan Robinson going and thus couldn’t do much when the Sooners slowly imposed their will on the game in the second half after making key adjustments. The Texas defense wants to make sure Hawkins, who appears to be Oklahoma’s best player on offense, is rattled and contained. If it’s someone else, they’ll have to adjust.

On the other side, the Sooners have a lot of options in front of them as to which Texas unit or player is the one they need to devote their most intense focus toward. Is it the Texas O-line? Quinn Ewers? Isaiah Bond? I’m not sure and hopefully they aren’t either, but Texas needs a plan that allows the right players to make plays when it matters most.

Quick thought no. 5: Special teams…

This game is notorious for big special teams plays. Presumably that should only matter in a close game and Texas should be good enough to avoid a particularly close game.

The factor in this game which should give Texas the greatest pause is the possibility of big special teams snafus that breath life into the Sooners. Punter Michael Kern being listed on the injury report is concerning (he will play). Silas Bolden‘s early tendency to press for opportunities to make plays in the punt return game has created some scary moments early in the year.

Emotions run wild in this game and tend to create big swings in the momentum. Who can forget Jordan Shipley‘s kick return which quickly erased the momentum Oklahoma had in 2008 after jumping out to a 14-3 lead?

Texas is generally quite good on special teams under Sark and have blocked Sooner punts in two of the last three Red River Shootouts. However, the Longhorns are currently only ranked 41st in special teams FEI while Oklahoma is ranked 3rd. The Horns need to be better here and not allow Oklahoma to approach parity in this contest as a result of big plays on special teams.

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Alright, we’ll revisit these in a few hours…