Floor, Expectation, Ceiling for Texas' three potential first-round picks in the NFL Draft

With the NFL Draft just three days away, fans and players alike are counting down the hours to hear the fate of their teams announced over speakers at Lambeau Field, the host of this year’s induction.

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Texas has three players that expect to hear their names called on Thursday: DB Jahdae Barron, OT Kelvin Banks and WR Matthew Golden. The three have a chance to be the first trio of Longhorns picked in the first round since 1980, when speedster Lam Jones was selected second overall by the New York Jets.

Texas won’t be having anyone drafted that high, but Bijan Robinson may have some competition for the highest drafted Longhorn of the Steve Sarkisian era. The former RB was selected eighth overall in the 2023 draft, but IT could see two different Longhorn being taken inside the top-10 overall picks in this year’s draft.

Kelvin Banks, OT

The Floor
Banks should never make it past the Houston Texans at Pick 25. Banks anchored the Longhorn offensive line as one of the nation’s best left tackles in the last three seasons, starting at the position as a true freshman. Texans edge rusher Will Anderson even claimed that Banks, in his second ever collegiate game, was the toughest matchup the former Alabama pass rusher had ever seen. With Laremy Tunsil traded to the Commanders, the Texans have a big need all over the O-line, but especially at LT. Banks is too good to fall past that.

The Expectation
Though this is quite the steep jump from the floor, the position that makes the most sense for the talented tackle to go is to San Francisco at Pick 11. Banks has had his share of critiques as a potential long-term tackle, but he’s still consistently mocked around the 13th-15th best player in the draft. The Niners have a huge need at tackle with former Sooner Trent Williams nearing retirement, and the only other team with a huge NEED at the position until the Texans is Arizona at 16.

The Ceiling
This truly is the ceiling of Banks’ draft stock, as there has been very little buzz for him to go this high, but in a world where Will Campbell and Armand Membou could both be top-five picks, the New York Jets at Pick 7 may be desperate to address an offensive tackle room that consistently under performs. This doesn’t feel likely, but there may be some teams that have him as OT1 if they believe in his longterm ability at LT, and this would be a spot for a tackle needy team to grab him.

Jahdae Barron, DB

The Floor
Jahdae is not getting past the Minnesota Vikings at pick 24. The run of Tampa Bay at 19, Pittsburgh at 21, Green Bay at 23 and the Vikings at 24 is sure to produce a pick for Barron and his extremely diverse skillset. All four of these teams need help around the secondary, but none more than the Vikings, whose lack of playmaking DBs cost them last year. If available, Minnesota would be springting in his name on a draft card.

The Expectation
The Dolphins at 13 are a popular spot for all three Longhorns, but that feels a bit steep for someone like Barron who may just be a nickel at the next level. For that reason, the expectation and the floor come in similar spots, as Green Bay at Pick 23 feels like his most likely slot. Another team desperate for a CB, Green Bay could use someone to play the nickel this year. He’s too talented to go any later than this, and unless their WR1 is still on the board Barron should be a priority.

The Ceiling
Just to rip the band-aid off, the pick is Las Vegas Raiders at Pick 6. Bear with us here.

The consensus for Vegas seems to be Ashton Jeanty, but what if he goes off the board? There’s no spot on this Vegas roster that needs more help than cornerback, and if they were already ready to select a low-value position in the first place, what would stop them from taking Barron if he’s at the top of their board? The best players in the draft are mostly at offensive line, tight end and defensive tackle, all positions the Raiders don’t really need. This could be a sneaky draft night shocker

Matthew Golden, WR

The Floor
Wide receiver is a tricky position to evaluate this year. Outside of Travis Hunter, no one seems to have a consensus best guy, though Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan is a popular answer. If Golden isn’t quite as popular as it’s been made out to be this past month, he could slip all the way down to the Washington Commanders at Pick 29. The Commanders wouldn’t let him fall any further, as they have a huge need at WR2 alongside Terry McLaurin. Golden would be a perfect fit in the Jayden Daniels–Kliff Kingsbury offense.

The Expectation
Golden going to the Dallas Cowboys at Pick 12 has been a consensus pick for what seems like the last two weeks, and it’s easy to see why. Dallas wants another playmaker on the offense, and it’s likely both Jeanty and McMillan are gone. Golden would be the best pairing of the first round receivers to play alongside Ceedee Lamb, and he’d get to stay in the Lone Star State. Golden has already started calling Jerry Jones “Coach Jerry”…

The Ceiling
The Cowboys at Pick 12 also feel like Golden’s ceiling. San Fran and Chicago at 11 and 10 don’t need a WR here, and though all the teams in the 6-9 range could swing it, it seems more likely that McMillan and Jeanty go in that range with the other two teams searching for help at other spots. It just doesn’t seem like the Saints or Panthers would reach that far down the consensus ranks (Golden is around the 20 range right now) for a player with a limited track record like Golden.

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Texas is expecting a big selection of players in this year’s draft, with anywhere from 13-15 players expecting to hear their names called at some point this weekend. The Longhorns have a chance to do something this program hasn’t done in decades, hear three of its players names called on the first night of the NFL Draft.