For Steve Sarkisian and Texas, a lot is at stake at K-State
It’s accurate to say all that matters on game day is getting the win, but overall, processes are more important than results because over time good processes yield wins while bad processes yield losses. Not always, but more often than not.
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Once there’s enough data, win-loss records are how coaches can evaluate whether or not their processes are working or in need of reexamination.
Steve Sarkisian isn’t deep into his tenure, and I’m merely observing rather than passing judgement, but a couple of negative themes that first emerged last year have continued this season. Those would be the inability to protect a lead and the inability to win on the road. Often times both themes overlap in frustrating fashion. That was the case in UT’s previous two road losses this season to Texas Tech in September and to Oklahoma State two weeks ago.
Summing the trend up to one issue is both easy and difficult. The dismissive way to explain it is to decry poor execution, but poor execution stems from many factors: coaching error (could be scheme, teaching, or playcall related), player error, player talent, lack of experience, quality of opponent, etc.
Last year Texas was hit by pretty much every issue, notably talent and lack of time in offensive and defensive systems. This year you might point to experience first followed by equal parts coaching and player error. But that doesn’t explain how Texas scored 24 and 31 points in the first half against Tech and Oklahoma State but finished with only 34 each time.
Basically, nothing we can publicly see truly explains lack of complementary football, particularly in second halves of games.
Vegas either can’t put its thumb on it or is dismissive of lingering issues and continues to favor UT. Texas is currently a 2.5 point favorite over Kansas State. Any non-emotional takers out there on that one?
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Adjusted metrics also like Texas, which makes UT’s issues even more confounding. Texas should be winning these games.
If Texas loses this week in all too predictable fashion it’ll be difficult to give Sark the benefit of the doubt on his game preparation and processes. It’s possible, maybe likely, as Texas continues to stockpile talent and experience it will be able to power through whatever the current issues are, but it shouldn’t come to even more stark talent advantage if Sark is one of the best coaches in the conference.
The flip side is, this is a fantastic opportunity for Sark to get the monkey off his back. There’s another famous former BYU quarterback who carried a much bigger burden. Following a legend, it was said he couldn’t win the big game. Like Sark, he had an issue overcoming the Cowboys. Eventually he punched through.
Somehow some way, Sark will eventually do the same, but if Sarkisian wants to keep Texas’ Big 12 title hopes alive, it needs to be this weekend against a good opponent in the face of a growing narrative.
