Good teams win, great teams cover: Texas vs Wyoming

Texas isn’t yet a great team but it has its best chance to be one since 2009. 

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I don’t particularly care if Texas covers Vegas’ 28.5 point spread against Wyoming today but I do care if Texas becomes a great team throughout the course of the season. If Texas is to make the playoffs and compete for the National Championship, it will have to become great at some point in the coming weeks or month. 

One barometer of a great team is win margin and the best barometer of expected win margin is the point spread. Barring some big missteps along the way, Texas is going to be the favorite in its remaining conference games. We knew the conference wasn’t going to be great this season, but it looks even worse than it did before the season began. 

Conference in turmoil

Baylor has a bad loss to Texas State and a somewhat respectable loss to the Big 12’s future daddy, Utah. Baylor blew a late lead in that game at home. Tickets likely won’t be hard to come by for Texas’ trip to Waco next week, unless you’re competing against other Texas fans.

TCU lost to Deion Sanders’ Colorado at home in the opener. The Horned Frogs had a lot of turnover this past offseason but not nearly as much as the Buffaloes. I do think TCU will improve throughout the year.

Kansas and K-State look to be pretty solid — about as expected. 

SMU played OU tough. I’m not a believer in the Sooners for this year and maybe not ever under Brent Venables. At minimum it’s a three-year build for Venables but probably more.

Special section for Tech’s losses

Texas Tech and Brett Yormark already have that bad loss to Wyoming (they led by 17), and a somewhat respectable loss to Oregon at home. Oregon outscored Tech by 17 in the 4th quarter to win by 8.

Ouch.

Back to the rest of the Big 12

Cincinnati has what might be a pretty good win over Pittsburgh. Either way, they might not be bad but they won’t be good.

U of H lost to Rice. Rice is better than many give it credit for but that’s not a loss that should ever happen.

UCF beat moribund Kent State in the opener and then beat Boise State by two.

Texas’ conference for the taking

You get the picture.

Though many of these teams will improve, the Big 12 isn’t good outside of Texas. The key to the season for Texas is improvement and playing to expectations week in, week out. With expectations raised (or met if you picked UT to beat Alabama and make the playoffs) today’s game against Wyoming is an opportunity to prove just how focused this team is. Wyoming is a tough, experienced team that won’t be intimidated by playing in DKR. No doubt the Cowboys have used the transitive property — the most worthless property this side of Baltic Ave. — to convince themselves they can beat Texas because of the Tech win. After all, Tech beat Texas last season.

But for so many reasons the 2023 Texas team is vastly different from 2022. Today offers the program another chance to prove it.

Here’s what I’m looking for

— A fast start on offense. The practice week started off slow on that side of the ball but picked up with each practice. Quinn Ewers‘ reputation for being a cool and composed leader took root last week but it needs to truly sprout in the coming weeks. Part of leadership is ensuring there are no days off, whether they’re Tuesday or Saturday. Ewers needs to get the passing game going early and demonstrate the offense is going to be consistent throughout the year.

— On defense I’m looking for something approximating the Rice effort. The opener featured 11 guys, regardless of who the 11 were, playing hard and assignment sound. The D-line should create plenty of issues for the Cowboys offensive line. That O-line is coming to Austin like so many groups of young men for bachelor parties. They’re full of hope and anticipation. The D-line needs to send them home like Austin does — utterly trashed. If the D-line does its job, desperation will set in for Wyoming. The secondary needs to watch for double passes and the like. Special teams needs to be aware of trickeration as well. An onside kick attempt after a field goal? I could see it.

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— Wyoming does have a pretty sound and active run defense. This is a good opportunity for the Texas O-line to advance the line of scrimmage and assert the run game. It’s also a good chance for Steve Sarkisian to disperse carries to his deep group of running backs.

— I want to see as many first- and second-year players as possible, as early as possible. 

— Play well, get the dub, and stay healthy.

I’ll take a cover, too, as a sign Texas is progressing towards greatness. But if not this week, I have full confidence a string of covers is coming this season.

It’s time to create consistency.