Hoops Preview: Iowa State
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Kendal Yancy. (Will Gallagher/IT)[/caption]
Hoops Preview: Iowa State
Date: Tuesday, January 12
Time: 8:00 pm Central
Television: ESPN2
Location: UT
Opponent Strengths:
After Texas’ most disappointing loss of the season, the Longhorns find themselves staring down the barrel of the gun as the Iowa State Cyclones come to Austin on Tuesday evening. ISU has been ranked as high as #3 already this season and, even without former coach Fred Hoiberg (now with the Chicago Bulls) remain a dangerous team filled with talented scorers and playmakers.
Passing/Creating. The Cyclones have two of the best playmakers in the country, let alone in the Big 12, in Monte Morris and Georges Niang. One of the two of them (or both) have the ball in their hands essentially every possession. It’s one of the reasons they’ve been so good during their mutual stint in Ames. Niang excels at catching the ball at the high post/elbow/low wing and breaking down opponents off the bounce. All Morris has done during his time as a Cyclone is set the national record for assist-to-turnover ratio while also progressing nicely as a scorer. How about this for a stat, Morris (110) and Niang (55) have combined for 165 assists this season. Texas, as a team, has only 176. The Cyclones, as a team have 265. Pretty stark difference in the level of playmaking/creating between the two teams.
Scoring diversity. Four Cyclones average over double figures in scoring. Two more, Burton and Thomas, average 9.5 points per game. With the exception of Cooke, Texas has to stay cognizant of every Iowa State player as shooters/scorers. It’s what makes guarding them so difficult. Who does a defense double? Who does a defense help off of? Difficult questions.
The Cyclones look to be led by 6’3” point guard Monte Morris (14.3 points, 7.3 assists, 4 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game). Niang gets a lot of the hype for ISU because of the matchup problems he causes for opponents but it’s Morris who is ISU’s most versatile and dangerous player because of how much he has the ball in his hands and, simultaneously, how excellent he is as a facilitator.
Opponent Weaknesses
Depth. They don’t have any. Iowa State goes seven deep. After that, the drop off is so steep that the staff obviously trusts none of the other players to contribute. As in, only ISU’s top seven players have gotten minutes during Big 12 play. That bodes well for Texas (though more so in February when they play for a second time) but it also dictates how the Cyclones play defense. They don’t foul (221 for the entire season compared to Texas’ 342). They don’t crash the offensive glass (only 30% offensive rebounding percentage). They attempt to stay solid and keep what little depth they have on the floor without concern for fouling out.
Shooting defense. Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the lack of depth is that ISU has to allow for their opponents to get some baskets against length instead of attacking teams, defensively. This helps with foul trouble, but it also enables some positive shooting performances for their opponents. For the season, teams are shooting almost 44% from the floor and almost 36% from three against Iowa State. Neither are particularly good numbers as the Cyclones rely on out-scoring opponents more so than stopping them.
Texas Keys: Offense
Avoiding the lulls. Iowa State’s offensive talent will come at you in waves. That’s what they do. In last year’s Big 12 second round game for Texas against ISU, they led the entire game, but a four and a half minute lull in scoring saw the Cyclones erase a 13 point deficit and turn it into a two point win. Again, it’s what they do. Texas has the offensive firepower to compete with ISU, but it’s not enough to do it in spurts, it has to happen consistently over a 40 minute game. Is this team ready for that? If not, it would take a Herculean defensive effort because the Cyclones are going to score.
Three-point shooting. Last year it was offensive output from Holland/Taylor/Felix. This year it’s three point shooting. Currently, the Longhorns rank second in the conference in three point attempts at almost 25 per game. Unfortunately, they also rank ninth in the conference for three point percentage at 25%. Extrapolate Texas’ 25% mark out to a season and they wouldn’t be last place in the country for that metric...they’d be second to last. Luckily, that hasn’t been the case for this team, but the numbers post-Ridley have been terrible. If they are on Tuesday, Texas will lose. Just as luckily, Iowa State’s three point defense on the season has been poor as well (35%). We’ll see.
Texas Keys: Defense
Rebound. Iowa State doesn’t create second chance opportunities particularly well/often. However, Texas needs to make it an essential non-factor. Second chance opportunities will lead to points (often of the perimeter variety) and that will be a killer.
Niang and Morris. McKay can hurt you. Burton can hurt you. Thomas can hurt you. Nader can hurt you. But Niang and Morris are the main components. Texas must be solid in the way that they maintain contact with both players and force them both to play make against a defense that is set early and not pulling against rotation. Prohm, like Hoiberg, does a good job of creating obvious iso situations for both guys by building reversals and skips into the offense. Texas must be early and solid on both guys.
Contest...hope. There is some luck to defending a team with the shot making talent of Iowa State. You can do everything right and then Niang nails a 26 footer. You can do everything right and then they turn a loose ball into a dunk. You can do everything right and then Morris drops a step back with a hand in his face. Hopefully, Iowa State doesn’t have a game where they’re red hot.
The Endgame
So, is this team progressing? Treading water?
Tough to say.
Shaq and Prince both had two of their better offensive games of the season against TCU. Davis is getting better as a playmaker. Taylor’s becoming more dynamic as a distributor bit by bit. Roach is turning the ball over less. Mack looks more comfortable. But the outside shooting and rebounding just aren’t getting better. Not fast enough, for sure. But arguably not at all.
Those are two huge issues to have against a team as good as these Cyclones. Especially after ISU is coming off of a home loss to Baylor that has them at 1-2 in the league.
I can see Texas rallying around Holland’s return from the emotional rollercoaster of losing his grandma, but I just can’t pick a Texas win in this one.
Prediction: Iowa State 82 - Texas 70
Projected Starting Lineup
Taylor
Felix
Holland
Lammert
Ibeh
Kendal Yancy. (Will Gallagher/IT)[/caption]
Hoops Preview: Iowa State
Date: Tuesday, January 12
Time: 8:00 pm Central
Television: ESPN2
Location: UT
Opponent Strengths:
After Texas’ most disappointing loss of the season, the Longhorns find themselves staring down the barrel of the gun as the Iowa State Cyclones come to Austin on Tuesday evening. ISU has been ranked as high as #3 already this season and, even without former coach Fred Hoiberg (now with the Chicago Bulls) remain a dangerous team filled with talented scorers and playmakers.
Passing/Creating. The Cyclones have two of the best playmakers in the country, let alone in the Big 12, in Monte Morris and Georges Niang. One of the two of them (or both) have the ball in their hands essentially every possession. It’s one of the reasons they’ve been so good during their mutual stint in Ames. Niang excels at catching the ball at the high post/elbow/low wing and breaking down opponents off the bounce. All Morris has done during his time as a Cyclone is set the national record for assist-to-turnover ratio while also progressing nicely as a scorer. How about this for a stat, Morris (110) and Niang (55) have combined for 165 assists this season. Texas, as a team, has only 176. The Cyclones, as a team have 265. Pretty stark difference in the level of playmaking/creating between the two teams.
Scoring diversity. Four Cyclones average over double figures in scoring. Two more, Burton and Thomas, average 9.5 points per game. With the exception of Cooke, Texas has to stay cognizant of every Iowa State player as shooters/scorers. It’s what makes guarding them so difficult. Who does a defense double? Who does a defense help off of? Difficult questions.
The Cyclones look to be led by 6’3” point guard Monte Morris (14.3 points, 7.3 assists, 4 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game). Niang gets a lot of the hype for ISU because of the matchup problems he causes for opponents but it’s Morris who is ISU’s most versatile and dangerous player because of how much he has the ball in his hands and, simultaneously, how excellent he is as a facilitator.
Opponent Weaknesses
Depth. They don’t have any. Iowa State goes seven deep. After that, the drop off is so steep that the staff obviously trusts none of the other players to contribute. As in, only ISU’s top seven players have gotten minutes during Big 12 play. That bodes well for Texas (though more so in February when they play for a second time) but it also dictates how the Cyclones play defense. They don’t foul (221 for the entire season compared to Texas’ 342). They don’t crash the offensive glass (only 30% offensive rebounding percentage). They attempt to stay solid and keep what little depth they have on the floor without concern for fouling out.
Shooting defense. Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the lack of depth is that ISU has to allow for their opponents to get some baskets against length instead of attacking teams, defensively. This helps with foul trouble, but it also enables some positive shooting performances for their opponents. For the season, teams are shooting almost 44% from the floor and almost 36% from three against Iowa State. Neither are particularly good numbers as the Cyclones rely on out-scoring opponents more so than stopping them.
Texas Keys: Offense
Avoiding the lulls. Iowa State’s offensive talent will come at you in waves. That’s what they do. In last year’s Big 12 second round game for Texas against ISU, they led the entire game, but a four and a half minute lull in scoring saw the Cyclones erase a 13 point deficit and turn it into a two point win. Again, it’s what they do. Texas has the offensive firepower to compete with ISU, but it’s not enough to do it in spurts, it has to happen consistently over a 40 minute game. Is this team ready for that? If not, it would take a Herculean defensive effort because the Cyclones are going to score.
Three-point shooting. Last year it was offensive output from Holland/Taylor/Felix. This year it’s three point shooting. Currently, the Longhorns rank second in the conference in three point attempts at almost 25 per game. Unfortunately, they also rank ninth in the conference for three point percentage at 25%. Extrapolate Texas’ 25% mark out to a season and they wouldn’t be last place in the country for that metric...they’d be second to last. Luckily, that hasn’t been the case for this team, but the numbers post-Ridley have been terrible. If they are on Tuesday, Texas will lose. Just as luckily, Iowa State’s three point defense on the season has been poor as well (35%). We’ll see.
Texas Keys: Defense
Rebound. Iowa State doesn’t create second chance opportunities particularly well/often. However, Texas needs to make it an essential non-factor. Second chance opportunities will lead to points (often of the perimeter variety) and that will be a killer.
Niang and Morris. McKay can hurt you. Burton can hurt you. Thomas can hurt you. Nader can hurt you. But Niang and Morris are the main components. Texas must be solid in the way that they maintain contact with both players and force them both to play make against a defense that is set early and not pulling against rotation. Prohm, like Hoiberg, does a good job of creating obvious iso situations for both guys by building reversals and skips into the offense. Texas must be early and solid on both guys.
Contest...hope. There is some luck to defending a team with the shot making talent of Iowa State. You can do everything right and then Niang nails a 26 footer. You can do everything right and then they turn a loose ball into a dunk. You can do everything right and then Morris drops a step back with a hand in his face. Hopefully, Iowa State doesn’t have a game where they’re red hot.
The Endgame
So, is this team progressing? Treading water?
Tough to say.
Shaq and Prince both had two of their better offensive games of the season against TCU. Davis is getting better as a playmaker. Taylor’s becoming more dynamic as a distributor bit by bit. Roach is turning the ball over less. Mack looks more comfortable. But the outside shooting and rebounding just aren’t getting better. Not fast enough, for sure. But arguably not at all.
Those are two huge issues to have against a team as good as these Cyclones. Especially after ISU is coming off of a home loss to Baylor that has them at 1-2 in the league.
I can see Texas rallying around Holland’s return from the emotional rollercoaster of losing his grandma, but I just can’t pick a Texas win in this one.
Prediction: Iowa State 82 - Texas 70
Projected Starting Lineup
Taylor
Felix
Holland
Lammert
Ibeh
