[caption id="attachment_22195" align="alignleft" width="300"] Texas basketball. (Will Gallagher/IT)[/caption]
Hoops Preview: Oklahoma
Date: Monday, January 5
Time: 8:00 Central
Television: ESPN
Location: UT
Live Updates: TEXAS-OU game thread
Opponent Strengths:
In a short turnaround after their hang-on win at Texas Tech, the Longhorns welcome No. 18 Oklahoma to Austin for a Big Monday showdown of two of the top teams in the conference. Lon Kruger’s Sooner squad took both games from the Horns last year and Texas will be eager to seek out a win against their rivals to the north. Oklahoma (10-3, 1-0) beat Baylor in Norman on Saturday afternoon 73-63.
The Sooners look to be led by 6-foot-4 junior guard Buddy Hield (16 pts, 5.4 rebs, 2 asts, 1.2 stls per game). Hield is one of the top scorers in the country and has grown into a fine all-around player for OU. He’s gonna chuck it. Hield has already attempted 100 three pointers on the season (he’s made 38) and Texas will have to play him to fire often from deep as he’ll likely take in the 8-10 range from beyond the arc. Obviously, that’s been an issue for Texas already this season and how well they handle Hield from deep will go a long ways towards their chances in this one.
Starting five. OU’s starting five is as good as any in the country. Bolstered by the immediate eligibility of Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, the Sooners have athleticism and scoring ability at all five positions from their first tier players. Woodard is a terrific point guard. Hield and Cousins can both score, rebound, pass and defend. And Spangler and Thomas can hit the boards and are dangerous around the basket. Against Baylor, OU’s starting five scored all but two of the Sooners’ points. It’s likely they’ll have to be just as dominant against Texas for OU to hope to come away from Austin with a win.
Field goal defense. Kruger has his team getting after it, defensively. The addition of Thomas gives OU a second defender who can cover interior players along with Spangler and that completeness has enabled Oklahoma’s defenders to be aggressive when contesting and pressing out beyond the three point line. It’s worked. Oklahoma’s limited opponents to only 36% shooting from the floor and a phenomenal 28% from three. This is one of the better defensive teams Texas will play this season.
Opponent Weakness:
Rebounding. Take this in context...OU is pretty good at most things...but they’re vulnerable on the glass both because of their lack of quality depth and because while both Thomas and Spangler are capable forwards, neither of them has ideal size as a true post player. The Sooners are surrendering 13 offensive rebounds per game, on average, and only hold a +2.7 rebounding margin average for the season. That’s worst in the conference. Texas will have the chance to crush the Sooners on the glass. They’ll likely need to to come away with a victory in this one.
Texas Keys: Offense
Turnovers. The 17 turnovers Texas committed against Tech were as diverse as they were despicable. Offensive fouls; poor passes in transition; inability to handle the press; five second inbounds calls; 10 second halfcourt violations; you name it and Texas committed it against the Red Raiders. If the Longhorns give this Sooner team extra possessions they’re going to get beat, especially when coupled with empty possessions of their own. Texas needs to be in the 10-12 turnover area to feel safe. If they’re in the 15+ range, this one could get ugly.
Mash down low. Taylor’s return didn’t materialize better efficiency with the ball, but it did bring with it the hopeful return of Cam Ridley’s effectiveness. Cam, Prince and Turner all stand to be beneficiaries of Isaiah’s ability to a) feed the post; and b) create offensive spacing in the lane with his penetration. Texas needs to find ways to attack OU’s big men in an attempt to get them into foul trouble and to wear them down as the game goes on. Any possession devoid of a lane touch will essentially be a wasted possession. The Longhorns should be able to get banner games out of their big men in this one.
Texas Keys: Defense
Don’t lose Hield or Cousins. The Sooners’ starting wings have attempted 157 threes between them and account for almost 60% of OU’s perimeter shots on the season (and 70% of their makes). If Buddy and Isaiah are going to hit contested threes, so be it. They’re both players who are capable of doing just that. But that’s far more palatable than it will be if they are getting multiple open looks from deep because of turnovers, poor rotation or over aggressiveness against shot fakes. If Texas can make OU’s shooters volume guys to get their points, they’ll win. If Hield and Cousins can score efficiently, however, Texas will be in trouble.
Make somebody other than Woodard facilitate. OU has solid players throughout its starting lineup, but only Woodard is a true playmaker for them with the basketball. Texas needs to be solid in limited Woodard’s ability to get into the paint and create off the bounce for his teammates. The more Cousins, Hield, and Thomas have to facilitate off the pass or with the dribble, the better off Texas will be.
The Endgame
A game like Saturday’s against Tech and the Longhorns will lose to OU. You simply can’t give away possessions like the Longhorns did in Lubbock and hope to beat a team that can score like these Sooners can.
Expecting Texas to all of a sudden be solid with the basketball is probably foolish, but there’s no reason this Longhorn squad can’t be in the low double digits range for turnovers.
If that happens, Texas will win. If it doesn’t, they’re going to be in a heck of a fight with a talented Sooner squad. I think Taylor got rid of the bugs against TTU and that Texas earns a hard fought victory against OU.
Prediction: Texas 78 - Oklahoma 71
Projected Starting Lineup
Taylor
Holland
Holmes
Lammert
Turner
MORE GAME NOTES
TELEVISION: The game will be televised nationally by ESPN. Brent Musburger (pxp), Fran Fraschilla (analyst) and Holly Rowe (reporter) will call the action.
• RADIO: The Longhorn Sports Network and KVET (FM 98.1/1300AM Sportsradio the Zone) broadcast every UT game on the statewide network. Craig Way (pxp) and Eddie Oran (analyst) will call the action. Check www.TexasSports.com for a listing of affiliates carrying the game.
OKLAHOMA SERIES INFO
• Oklahoma leads, 50-35. Last meeting: OU 77-65 (March 1, 2014; Norman).
• Monday's contest marks the 86th meeting between Texas and Oklahoma.
• The Sooners hold a 50-35 lead in the all-time series that dates back to a 59-26 OU victory in Norman on Feb. 25, 1910.
• The Horns have won seven of the last 10 meetings against Oklahoma, despite a two-game sweep by the Sooners last year.
• UT holds a 19-17 advantage in games played in Austin.
• Texas is 21-18 against Oklahoma during the Rick Barnes era.
Notables
• SUCCESS IN BIG 12 HOME OPENERS: UT enters Monday's contest with a 14-2 record in Big 12 Conference home openers during the Rick Barnes era (dating back to the 1998-99 season).
• CLEANING THE GLASS: Texas recorded a +12 rebound margin (41-29) in Saturday's win at Texas Tech. The Horns have posted double-digit rebound margins in 11 of their first 14 contests this season and rank second nationally in rebound margin (through games of Jan. 3).
• FELIX ON A ROLL: Junior guard Javan Felix has reached double figures in scoring in each of the last four contests, averaging 15.3 ppg in the stretch. He has converted 21-of-41 (.512) field goals, including 9-of-23 (.391) from three-point range over the last four games. Felix had a game-high 15 points (5-of-10 FG, 3-of-6 threes) in 24 minutes off the bench in Saturday's victory at Texas Tech.
HORNS AT HOME
• UT is currently in its 38th season of play at the Frank Erwin Center.
• Texas has won 16 of its last 17 home games.
• The Longhorns have registered an all-time record of 458-105 (.813) in the building.
• Since Rick Barnes arrived in Austin, UT has recorded a 233-33 (.876) mark at the Erwin Center, including a 107-24 (.817) record in Big 12 Conference home games.
• Texas is 186-22 (.894) at the Erwin Center in the last 13 seasons (dating to the start of the 2002-03 season)