How many Longhorns should be drafted? What about by round? Here's the answer

The University of Texas is about to set a new school record for draft picks. Festivities kick off tonight with the first round. Though it’s only one round, three Longhorns should hear their names called. Where they’ll go is anyone’s guess. Mock drafts, which are always all over the place, are particularly so this year. Even the few guys with real information seem to be struggling to come to any sort of consensus.

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I’ll offer my thoughts on where I would draft each player with my reasoning. Anyone who has ever read my thoughts on evaluation and projection knows I rate highly for football character. I also tend to value a high floor more than most. A lot of teams and evaluators salivate over the ceiling. That’s great—especially when the mental evaluation is strong—but countless players never come close to their ceiling. Teams that are perennially bad tend to look for saviors rather than quality starters.

With that in mind, let’s start with a very high-floor player.

OT Kelvin Banks — I’d draft him top 10: I think Banks is an NFL left tackle. His length is fine, and if you don’t think it is, he has compensatory traits like quick feet. He’s a smart, high-character football player. If tackle doesn’t work out, then you have a 10-year guard. That’s a left tackle ceiling, guard floor.

I would love for the Texans to get him, but I don’t want him falling to 25.

CB Jahdae Barron — Top 15: Barron is a complete defensive back. Safety IQ and toughness, cornerback movement skills, and combativeness when the ball is in the air. I’ve seen Trent McDuffie comps and love that.

The Niners draft DL seemingly every year, but I want them to take Barron at 11.

WR Matthew Golden — Late 1st, early 2nd: I can argue earlier, but I just can’t shake the feeling he’s a very good No. 2 receiver in a prolific offense. He didn’t seem to separate vertically in accordance with how he timed. He’s a strong ball-winner to make up for his ordinary height, but NFL CBs are freaks.

The Texans have bigger needs, but he’d be awesome in Houston.

If you can’t tell, I like the Niners and Texans.

S Andrew Mukuba — Late 1st, early 2nd: As a pro prospect, Mukuba won me over entirely this season. Literally the only knock I can find is lack of weight (186 pounds), but that doesn’t keep him from playing physically. You want to defend the deep pass in the NFL? I know a guy.

I think the consensus is wrong on him.

DT Alfred Collins — 2nd Round: Last year I begged and pleaded the NFL to take T’Vondre Sweat in the first round. A number of teams probably wish they had another chance to do so. I don’t see Collins in the same light, but I do think the second round is justified. If anything, I think the NFL is downplaying his athleticism and overrating his strength.

QB Quinn Ewers — 2nd Round: I’ve had the same concerns you can find in a million other places, but the right coach and offense could bring out the best in Ewers. Quick and intermediate passing with schemed-open receivers—like with the Rams or Niners—could be what the doctor ordered. The Rams and Niners make sense given their QB situations as well. Matt Stafford can’t live forever and Brock Purdy is a function of Kyle Shanahan.

OT Cameron Williams — 2nd Round: Eric, are you nuts!? His tape was nowhere close to his traits. Oh man, do I know that. I watched the games too. Had Adonai Mitchell come back for one more year, he’d be the first true receiver going in this draft. I feel similar about Williams’ upside had he come back. You pay the price for a year because he’s not ready, but it’s an investment that could pay off for a decade.

TE Gunnar Helm — 3rd Round: Here’s a good place to say I’d take Colston Loveland over Tyler Warren. Give me Helm in the 3rd. I think he benefited more from play-calling than his own ability to get open, but he’s a good athlete and reliable receiver. A little more physical maturity will unlock better blocking.

Edge Barryn Sorrell — 3rd Round: Sorrell’s fit in the NFL will likely change. Rather than playing the “bigger” end, he can play from a standup position. He has strong hands, play strength, and moves well enough to become a quality pass rusher. I think people will be surprised by his sack totals given his good but not great production in college. He’ll be good against the run. Fantastic football character is a big bonus. I’d want him on my team.

DT Vernon Broughton — 4th Round: I view him more as a high-energy rotational player than a long-term NFL starter, though I wouldn’t rule that out. Broughton took a while to become the latest version, which could mean there’s still room for improvement.

OC Jake Majors — 5th Round: He’s scheme dependent to me, but he could also start early in his career, so I struggle on what round I’d take him. What does my OC run?

RB Jaydon Blue — 5th Round: Not many have been tougher on Blue, but he’s a potential game-changing change-of-pace back. I’ve likened him to Raheem Mostert. He has the athleticism, but I don’t think he has the intangibles to become one of the litany of productive NFL volume carriers we’ve seen who were drafted in the later rounds.

LB David Gbenda — 6th Round: Runs like a pro, hits like a pro. Fifth linebacker plus special teams ace? Sign me up for the foreseeable future.

OL Hayden Conner — 7th Round: If I’m a team who feels good about his physicality, I’d draft him a round or two higher. I’d explore center with him.

PR Silas Bolden — 7th Round: Silas in a bottle > lightning in a bottle. He’s diminutive, but he’s as tough as the baddest mother trucker on the planet.

WR Isaiah Bond — Off the Board: I don’t know enough about his legal issues. I can deal with WR diva attitude, even on the more negative side of it. At a certain draft value, I can even deal with unwillingness to block. But I can’t invest in someone who did what he was alleged to do. I’m not passing judgment on him in either direction. If the legal issues are clean, I’d take him in the second round.

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Clearly I suffer from familiarity bias. I don’t normally want players drafted by my professional team just because they went to Texas, but I really like this group and see a ton of NFL success in its future.