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How Texas could approach its first two NCAA Tournament games

by:Evan Vieth•05/28/25
Ethan Walker
Ethan Walker (Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Over the recent holiday, the NCAA announced Texas baseball’s seeding and future opponents for the NCAA Baseball Tournament. The Longhorns drew the No. 2 overall seed, behind Vanderbilt, and are slated to host UTSA, Kansas State, and Houston Christian in the Austin Regional.

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With Texas securing a top-eight seed, the Longhorns will be able to host a super regional if they advance, setting the stage for a potential matchup against the group of four in the Los Angeles Regional: UCLA, UC Irvine, Arizona State, and Fresno State. As mentioned on the Inside Texas Baseball show on Monday, this is a fantastic draw for the Longhorns.

Texas avoids any opponents from the ACC or SEC, and UCLA is one of the weakest national seeds. Another team winning the LA Regional wouldn’t even feel like an upset. UTSA is a fantastic team, and Kansas State is a strong three-seed (25th and 37th in RPI, respectively), but if the Longhorns take care of business, it should mean an appearance in Omaha.

Texas will face HCU at 1 p.m. on Friday, one of the weakest teams in the entire NCAA Tournament draw. The Longhorns run-ruled the Huskies at home earlier this year.

Given this functionally weaker matchup, Texas has several options for how they can approach the regional. No game is a guaranteed win, but barring a catastrophe at the Disch, Texas should be playing in the winner’s bracket on Saturday night.

This allows Texas to take the same approach they used in the SEC Tournament. The Longhorns trotted out Ethan Walker to start against Tennessee. Somewhat unexpectedly, the mustached lefty outdueled Liam Doyle, the SEC’s finest pitcher, and got through 4.1 innings of one earned run and three-hit baseball.

Walker is the obvious choice to start against HCU, with the plan for him to throw a similar number of innings to get through a Huskies lineup that features three prominent lefty bats. This strategy allows Texas to save Luke Harrison for Saturday, his usual day to pitch, to face the toughest opponent of the regional: the winner of the Kansas State-UTSA game.

This is a solid plan to secure the first two wins with a starting rotation that has been banged up and shuffled all season. Friday’s game could see relievers like Grayson Saunier, Kade Bing, Jason Flores, and Andre Duplantier II, while Saturday would give way to Thomas Burns, Max Grubbs, and Dylan Volantis to shut down their opponents.

A team seeded as highly as Texas going up 2-0 in a regional would all but guarantee a chance at advancing to the supers. They would need to lose two consecutive games to teams that have already suffered losses, either to Texas or a team Texas defeated. That final win could come from Ruger Riojas, Bing/Flores, or even a heavy bullpen game with players like Cody Howard and Grubbs.

Offensively, Texas will have more options than usual. Jonah Williams and Max Belyeu should be healthy in the outfield, Ethan Mendoza can return to second base, and now the Longhorns have 10 position players they trust. HCU may essentially concede game one and avoid using Parker Edwards, their ace righty who is arguably their best hitter and pitcher. Instead, Joshua Carvalho would likely start.

Facing a righty, Texas would likely include Williams in the lineup. The Longhorns could line up like this for the first game:

  1. 2B Ethan Mendoza
  2. RF Max Belyeu
  3. C Rylan Galvan
  4. 1B Kimble Schuessler
  5. DH Adrian Rodriguez
  6. SS Jalin Flores
  7. CF Will Gasparino
  8. LF Jonah Williams
  9. 3B Casey Borba

That Borba slot could also go to Tommy Farmer IV, with Williams hitting at DH and Rodriguez moving to third base. Williams returning to the lineup sacrifices some defense from either Farmer or Borba, but his lefty bat is invaluable for Texas’ lineup construction.

Lastly, UTSA and Kansas State will likely throw their aces in their respective matchups. Both teams must win their first game to gain some cushion later in the tournament. If Kansas State wins, it won’t matter as much for Texas since K-State primarily uses lefty starters. For UTSA, it’s more variable, as either lefty Conor Myles or righty Braylon Owens could be their ace. If Texas faces a lefty, the Longhorns might drop Williams for a righty bat and slightly adjust the order, creating a defensively strong team with multiple lefty-righty matchups.

Texas has a slew of options on both sides of the diamond. A lot of this weekend’s strategy will depend on head coach Jim Schlossnagle’s in-game decisions. Walker (or possibly Bing) should start against HCU, but the lineup and pitching strategy could shift depending on the second game matchup.

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While many variables play into regional pitching matchups, Texas has positioned itself well for postseason success. With a favorable game one matchup, no ace waiting in game two, and depth on both sides of the ball, Schlossnagle’s team is well-prepared for a run at Omaha.

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