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How tough is Texas' schedule in 2025? SP+ provides an answer

Joe Cookby:Joe Cook•about 16 hours•

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Steve Sarkisian
Steve Sarkisian (Brett Patzke-Imagn Images)

Bill Connelly’s SP+ thinks highly of the 2025 Longhorns, ranking Steve Sarkisian‘s Texas as its No. 7 team. But how difficult does SP+ think Texas’ schedule is?

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Connelly took to X on Wednesday to post the projected top-40 for SP+’s strength of schedule. Texas had the No. 12 toughest schedule, with seven teams on its 2025 slate ahead of the Longhorns in terms of difficulty.

Two things worth noting.

  • Connelly’s reminder in his post: “The SOS rating is the projected win percentage an average top-5 team could expect against your schedule. OU and Florida will need to be top-5 caliber to go even 9-3.”
  • Texas can’t play Texas: Seven of the eight teams Texas will play in the Southeastern Conference have projected tougher schedules than the Horns with Georgia as the lone exception. Their schedules are considered more difficult in part because the Longhorns are on them. Texas’ schedule is easier because it can’t play Texas, one of the best teams in the nation.

In SEC play, the Longhorns will face these teams as ranked by SP+…

  • No. 4 Georgia
  • No. 12 Texas A&M
  • No. 17 Florida
  • No. 20 Oklahoma
  • No. 35 Arkansas
  • No. 40 Kentucky
  • No. 54 Vanderbilt
  • No. 65 Mississippi State

That’s an average ranking of No. 31. In addition, Texas has to battle SP+’s preseason No. 1 team in Ohio State to start the year. In the era of the 12-team playoff, a challenging schedule can be a critical factor looked at by the College Football Playoff selection committee. Wins and losses matter, but it’s nice to have wins over quality opponents. The Longhorns’ schedule provides the opportunity to stack up a number of quality wins against a sizable amount of teams ranked within SP+’s top 40.

Some of the other teams in the SEC have difficult slates, even though their 2025 league schedules simply flip the home and away contests from the 2024 season.

Oklahoma has a difficult task in Brent Venables‘ fourth year. Not only do the Sooners have to play Texas, they have to travel to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama and play host to Michigan early in the season.

Florida has to venture Miami and play at LSU, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss.

Arkansas must play Notre Dame, as does Texas A&M.

Other notable non-conference games featuring SEC teams include…

Marquee week one affairs:

  • Alabama at Florida State
  • Auburn at Baylor
  • LSU at Clemson
  • South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech

An intriguing week two matchup:

  • Arizona State at Mississippi State

Plus these week three games:

  • Wisconsin at Alabama
  • Texas A&M at Notre Dame

Not to mention several interconference rivalries:

  • Georgia at Georgia Tech
  • Kentucky at Louisville
  • Clemson at South Carolina
  • Florida State at Florida

Texas likes to maintain difficult schedules, something ironically made easier now that the Longhorns are members of the SEC. That preference should lead to a nice strength of schedule ranking once again in 2025, but some other teams have tougher schedules to manage in the upcoming season.

Projected top-40 most difficult schedules

  1. Oklahoma
  2. Florida
  3. Arkansas
  4. Wisconsin
  5. Vanderbilt
  6. Mississippi State
  7. South Carolina
  8. Kentucky
  9. LSU
  10. Texas A&M
  11. Alabama
  12. Texas
  13. Georgia
  14. Syracuse
  15. Auburn
  16. Rutgers
  17. Purdue
  18. Northwestern
  19. UCLA
  20. USC
  21. Ohio State
  22. Iowa
  23. Ole Miss
  24. Tennessee
  25. Missouri
  26. Michigan State
  27. Minnesota
  28. Washington
  29. Penn State
  30. Florida State
  31. Indiana
  32. Oregon
  33. Stanford
  34. Clemson
  35. Nebraska
  36. Miami (Fla.)
  37. Boston College
  38. Michigan
  39. NC State
  40. Illinois

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