Inside Texas Roundtable: Sugar Bowl predictions, key factors, Texas football season retrospective

After a long 14 years, the Texas Longhorns are on the precipice of playing for the national championship. All that stands in the way is a No. 2 Washington Huskies team.

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The Inside Texas staff provides predictions, key factors, and lookbacks at the 2023 campaign that has Texas in the final four.

Steve Sarkisian spoke in the offseason about how nice it would be to play in Houston twice, referencing the game against the Cougars and also the CFP title. When did you get similar confidence that Texas could be a playoff contender?

Eric Nahlin – Before the season as well. I predicted 11-1 and Playoffs, including a win in Tuscaloosa if Jalen Milroe was the starter, in our season opening Roundtable. Blind squirrel, imo. That said, there were times during the season where Texas was flying too close to the sun and a second loss wouldn’t have shocked me.

Justin Wells – After they beat TCU. The Horned Frogs were down in 2023, but on the road, Texas pulled it out and it became apparent Texas was a contender.

Joe Cook – At SEC Media Days I mentioned that if the Longhorns defeated Alabama then they absolutely should consider themselves Playoff contenders. Only teams of a certain quality can go into Tuscaloosa and defeat Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. Once they left Bryant-Denny with the win I started having the whole “do I prefer Los Angeles or New Orleans” conversation in my head.

Ian Boyd – Preseason. They had all the right traits, including four NFL playmakers at the major impact positions of outside receiver and defensive tackle. I didn’t really think much about it until they’d won the Big 12 though, an important step in re-establishing Texas.

Paul Wadlington – I thought we had playoff potential back in April when I predicted we’d win the Big 12 title. The Alabama win in Tuscaloosa increased my confidence, losing to Oklahoma decreased it. Quinn going down was certainly a hit. I generally believed this team would get it together and be playoff quality – the only question was whether injuries, bad play or a bad break would hand us a crippling second loss.

Steve Habel – I knew Texas would be better because of its returning talent and continuing growth, but I wasn’t convinced that it would be good enough to make the CFP. All that changed with the win at Alabama and the way the Longhorns’ confidence grew as they faced adversity. Now I think they could win it all.

Coach V – Offense was last spring. I knew after watching Adonai Mitchell that Sark had his final piece to his puzzle where he could maximize his total offense without overworking Jonathon Brooks. I can’t tell you how hard it is to defend five full weapons with just 11 defenders. I knew Quinn Ewers would be as advertised once we added a sure handed deep threat opposite Xavier Worthy because you just can’t match up with Ja’Tavion Sanders and stay honest on Worthy and Mitchell.

Defense wise was Bama despite Derek Williams not playing a down. Williams, Ethan Burke, and Anthony Hill Jr. were huge additions where we needed help. I loved our DT’s (all five) going in but they outperformed my wildest expectations. Unfortunately, our veteran DB’s are still better athletes than they are secondary players.

What’s the biggest difference between the Texas team that lost to Washington in the 2022 Alamo Bowl and the Texas team facing Washington in the 2024 Sugar Bowl?

Eric Nahlin – The offense is much more consistently balanced between run/pass efficacy. But, the D-line powered by T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy deserves mention as well. Those two exceeded my preseason hopes that at the time I felt bordered on fan-fiction.

Justin Wells – Texas defense is stronger. They lost Keondre Coburn, Moro Ojomo, and DeMarvion Overshown to the NFL Draft and yet they got better. Quinn Ewers being more polished would be the other factor.

Joe Cook – On defense, there are gameplan-wreckers at defensive tackle. It was tough to run on Texas last year due to the quality of play on the interior but now it’s tough to run and pass versus the Longhorns because T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy can make life absurdly difficult for opposing offenses. On offense, it’s the multifaceted passing game spearheaded by Quinn Ewers.

Ian Boyd – There are a ton of pretty sizable differences. Maybe the biggest is the fact they’re now oriented around Quinn Ewers throwing to a receiving corps which now includes Adonai Mitchell. In the Alamo Bowl where they’d only begun to transition toward that style away from the Bijan Robinson era.

Paul Wadlington – The team. Not trying to be glib, but almost everything is better. RB would be the only exception.

Steve Habel – Experience, confidence based on realized expectations and quarterback play. Remember that Texas was also without its two best running backs in San Antone last year and its top receiver had a broken hand. And the Longhorns still only lost by seven.

Coach V – I believe we have the combination of run stopping ability on defense paired with a complete offense that we didn’t have last time. I hope we learned from our weaknesses last year and mixed with a huge confidence level should make our journey to Houston much easier. Honestly, we know for a fact we belong and that’s as positive as it gets.

Washington boasts the best receiving corps the Longhorns will have faced this season. What’s the key to limiting Michael Penix, Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’lynn Polk?

Eric Nahlin – No. 1 is you have to get Penix Jr. moving his feet and dropping his eyes. No. 2 is getting safety help to the proper corner, which is tricky. No. 3 is being aggressive at the catch point. No 4 is good open field tackling.

Justin Wells – Pressure. Texas defensive front must get pressure on the southpaw, or it could be a long night. Texas has to make Penix Jr. uncomfortable.

Joe Cook – Communication and pressure. Take time to go through progressions away and make sure those routes are passed off successfully.

Ian Boyd – Don’t give them a lot of space to operate in or they will find open areas and don’t let Michael Penix get away from the pass rush and sit back where he can launch bombs.

Paul Wadlington – In the last six days, I wrote three previews, recorded three pods and did a video exploring this very idea. The short answer is that you’re better off disrupting what they want to do early at the source (pressure on Penix, disrupting routes, eliminating presnap certainty and timing) rather than late. Washington has a high execution passing game with YOLO baller traits. That’s a rare, dangerous combo.

Steve Habel – Defensive line pressure to force Penix Jr. out of his comfort zone and into making free wheeling plays. And making the Huskies one-dimensional by stopping the run. It’s the formula that’s worked for Texas all year. If the Longhorns can steal three or four possessions from the Washington offense, they will win.

Coach V – I believe making Penix Jr. uncomfortable in the pocket is the ticket. I like Hill Jr. to blitz Penix Jr. on cross stunts with the DT’s (makes our big guys only defeat one half of the blocker) and that creates huge problems for Penix Jr. to climb up the pocket. I would also hope to see Hill Jr. go one on one with their center as he threatens both A gaps. I don’t think edge stunts will be as effective for Hill Jr. because they will have schemed the poop out of blocking said blitz. Hey, they are terrific offensive weapons and we aren’t ball hawks in the back five so they are going to make their share of plays. Take your hat off—they have scholarship players too.

How do the Huskies try to mitigate the ability of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy to crash interiors?

Eric Nahlin – Perimeter passing, including screens.

Justin Wells – Possibly going outside more with quick slants and screen plays. If that’s possible.

Joe Cook – Quick passing. What else can they do?

Ian Boyd – I think they’ll try to move them around with rollouts, mix in a lot of quick throws and runs to keep them honest, and use pace as needed to get them huffing and puffing.

Paul Wadlington – Run outside with pulling linemen, get the ball out quickly, half roll the pocket, pray that Texas doesn’t interior blitz its linebackers to create constant 1 on 1s.

Steve Habel – Is that possible? No one has done it yet. The Washington offensive line was voted the nation’s best but they haven’t faced a force like the Longhorns in the trenches. Texas has the depth to keep T-Sweat and Murph fresh and let then hang it all out when on the field.

Coach V – If they huddle most of the time they will get all they want from the entire DT rotation. We have met the challenge every single opportunity and they aren’t overpowering so my best guess is we will make them struggle to block our front.

Score prediction

Eric Nahlin – 37-27, Texas.

Justin Wells – 37-30, Texas

Joe Cook – 42-35, Texas

Ian Boyd – 35-27, Texas

Paul Wadlington – 38-31, Texas

Steve Habel – 31-24, Texas

Coach V – 45-17, Texas