Inside the gameplan: Senior day vs K-State

This will be Texas’ last chance in the 2021 season to show some pride and try to play a complete game of football. Their opponent almost doesn’t matter, there should be pride at stake here, but they have recently seemed incapable of playing an inspired game.

As for the opponent, Kansas State under Chris Klieman have been pretty effective through three seasons. He didn’t inherit the most talented roster and what he did inherit (a quarterback!) they haven’t been able to consistently enjoy because of injuries.

The Wildcats were 8-5 in year one under Klieman and Skyler Thompson had a strong season executing their passing game at a solid level while bringing major value-add in short-yardage and the red zone with the quarterback run game. They started 2020 2-1 with a huge comeback win over Oklahoma and then Thompson was lost to injury and the team eventually folded without him. By the time Texas played them at the end of the year they were a shell of a team and Bijan Robinson ran for 172 yards and three touchdowns on just nine carries.

This season they lost Skyler Thompson to injury AGAIN in Week 2 of the season and had to play Nevada and Oklahoma State without him (1-1). They also lost promising pass-rusher Khalid Duke, who otherwise would have been able to share the field with “King” Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who has 11 sacks this season. Against Baylor last week the Wildcats went down 20-10 and lost Thompson to injury again. Given Texas’ status as favorites in this game, it’s reasonable to assume Thompson won’t be available for K-State.

So we have a totally beat down Texas team on a six-game losing streak playing for nothing but pride and appreciation for their seniors against a 7-4 Kansas State team missing their quarterback and playing for the possibility of a better bowl game than a 7-5 finish would garner. Fairly low stakes here and some potential for a washout if either team came out flat.

Controlling the middle

The big question in this game will be who plays quarterback for either team. Best guess would see a Casey Thompson vs Will Howard matchup which would have a lot of ramifications for the likely style of the contest.

Will Howard threw a few bad interceptions in this contest last year (playing with a bad shoulder) but also ran for 79 yards on 14 carries while pairing with Deuce Vaughn (10 carries for 125 yards and two scores) in the option game. Texas fans probably mostly recall the deluge of Bijan Robinson from that contest, the Longhorns won 69-31, but K-State ran for over 200 yards and obviously scored some points.

The run game structure for the Wildcats when Howard is at the helm is really straightforward and potentially horrifying for the Longhorns. There’s some question as to whether Texas will see it, Skyler Thompson wants to try and play his second to last game as a Wildcat and if he could it would preserve a redshirt this season for Howard.

Here’s a small sampling of how this run game can work with Howard at the helm.

pic.twitter.com/uKiFgVzZRG

— Asst to the Minister of Culture (@Ian_A_Boyd) November 24, 2021

The first example is a stretch-read play with a fold block, if the unblocked D-linemen crashes too hard then Howard is running downhill through the cutback lane. Howard can be inaccurate and make shaky decisions in the passing game, but he’s also 6-foot-4, 235 pounds, can run like a tight end, and his position coach is Collin Klein. He can handle a load in the run game, especially right now when he’s hardly played all year, and can find creases between the tackles.

All of the Will Howard run game concepts in K-State’s playbook are perfectly calibrated to torture this Texas defense, who struggle to contain the edge and has hesitant linebackers. It’s easy to imagine the inverse of the 2020 game with a beaten down and disinterested Texas defense getting run over for 200-300 rushing yards if Howard gets the call.

The second example is arguably nastier and another of many concepts they have which can hit you with “speed on the perimeter or Will Howard in the power game” options. They have a sweep outside to slot receiver Phillip Brooks but it’s just a distraction for when they pull the center and left tackle on a power sweep for the quarterback.

Texas should prepare for the Will Howard power-option gameplan and then just count their lucky stars if they get a gimpy Thompson or the extremely limited Jaren Lewis instead. The gameplan should feature a heavy dose of 3-4 defense and quarters coverage with flat-footed safeties sitting at eight yards depth. The threat of K-State throwing the ball for a win shouldn’t factor into the calculation for the defensive coaches in the gameplan this week.

K-State is pretty solid on defense this year too and still a real challenge for Texas’ offensive line and wide receivers. They’ve stolen the flyover defense from the Iowa State Cyclones and have some intense multiplicity in what they can run from it. The full gamut of quarters, Cyclone Tampa 2, and match 3 coverages are at their disposal and they’ll drop safeties into the box late from all angles in the base 3-2-6 scheme.

The Wildcat 5-man box doesn’t always hold the point of attack but they tend to make up for it by having four safeties on the field who can come from every angle to quickly close any initially open running lanes.

Texas’ outside zone game gashed them a year ago and probably gashes them again for a few gains. If the O-line opens initial creases then the cracks in the dam become too large for the defensive backs to patch.

Good chance this game features either team pounding away at each other with the run game and we see who has the will to hold up over four quarters.

Space warfare

There is a potentiality in which Kansas State is awfully good next season because they return Anudike and Duke at defensive end, nearly all of the offensive line, both cornerbacks, Deuce Vaughn, etc. Big 12 defenses who can pressure the quarterback with a base pass rush and play man coverage at cornerback tend to do very well and the offense won’t go over a cliff.

At times in 2021 you’ll get 1-on-1 matchups outside against cornerbacks Julius Brents and Ekow Boye-Doe, at many other times they’ll be in Cover 2 with a safety over the top. They’re both pretty solid, not “lock down Xavier Worthy on a double move or a post” good, but they’re solid players. The bigger concern is holding up against Anudike and the 3rd down packages, which will also bring in young defensive end Nate Matlack (four sacks). K-State can get after you some and it’s very hard on a down to down basis to predict what coverage they’ll be in.

West Virginia gave Texas trouble last week by moving their defensive backs around and forcing true, post-snap reads in the RPO game. K-State can do the same and try to force errors from Casey Thompson where he misses opportunities or even takes sacks or throws incomplete passes.

It’ll be interesting to see how Casey might play at home in DKR, where he’s been a different player than on the road.

In four games he’s started at DKR, Thompson has thrown 111 passes for 1,004 yards at 9.0 ypa with 14 touchdown passes and five interceptions. In five games he’s started elsewhere he’s thrown 114 passes for 841 yards at 7.4 ypa with eight touchdowns to three interceptions.

Take out the Red River Shootout (20-34 for 388 yards with five touchdowns and zero picks) and the road resume gets grim, particularly when you remember he was pulled from his last two road starts after throwing 20 passes for 31 yards at 1.6 ypa with zero touchdowns and an interception.

This game is in DKR and the weather will be reasonably warm for a late November game, so if the recent disparity between Thompson vs Kansas and Thompson vs Iowa State and West Virginia relates to struggling in a hostile environment or trying to grip the ball in cold with a bad thumb, there is some reason for hope in this contest.

However, because of their flyover/base dime defensive structure, the pathway for K-State to find victory in this game is straightforward and attainable. The obvious strategy is to use Texas’ own gameplan against Oklahoma State from 2019 and always play Cover 2 over Xavier Worthy regardless of where he is on the field while sending everyone else to stop the run.

If Thompson has to navigate shifting coverages and can’t find Worthy running behind the defense, Texas will be limited and drawn into a trench war. Which is more efficient? Will Howard and Deuce Vaughn against the Texas defense? Or Roschon Johnson and Keilan Robinson running on the Wildcats?

Unless they come out with fire, it’s easy to see Texas taking one more tough loss before we see Steve Sarkisian start mashing buttons on the “offseason adjustment” control panel.