Is Texas overrated, underrated, or properly rated by SP+?

Bill Connelly’s SP+ spring projections for 2025 are now out!

They’ll be updated again before the season begins, but these post spring projections are always key because they reflect movement in the spring transfer portal window which tends to have pretty massive impacts on the season.

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Texas ranked 5th overall behind Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, and Georgia and just ahead of Notre Dame. Here’s how the top 10 looks:

Team	SP+	Off SP+	Def SP+	Special SP+
Ohio State	29.5	39.6 (7th)	10.1 (2nd)	0.3 (11th)
Alabama	27.9	40.4 (5th)	12.6 (5th)	0.2 (20th)
Penn State	27.7	40.6 (3rd)	12.9 (6th)	0.1 (58th)
Georgia	26.9	39.0 (8th)	12.1 (4th)	0.6 (1st)
Texas	26.4	35.4 (17th)	9.0 (1st)	-0.5 (135th)
Notre Dame	24.9	38.3 (10th)	13.4 (8th)	-0.2 (106th)
Oregon	24.7	40.5 (4th)	15.8 (11th)	0.5 (3rd)
Clemson	23.3	39.9 (6th)	16.7 (12th)	-0.3 (133rd)
LSU	22.1	40.7 (2nd)	18.6 (23rd)	0.1 (48th)
Michigan	21.5	31.8 (32nd)	10.3 (3rd)	0.2 (22nd)

The SP+ number is the expected margin of victory against an average team. The offensive SP+ is how much you’d score against an average team, defensive SP+ how much you’d surrender, and special teams SP+ how many points per game difference the special teams is likely to contribute.

So, is SP+ overrating, underrating, or properly rating the 2025 Longhorns? Let’s consider…

135th best special teams?

There are 136 teams in the FBS level of college football and I promise you Texas will be better than the 135th best.

Evidently the Longhorns scored very, very poorly in special teams SP+ last year and Bill Connelly’s special teams formula is to consider a regression to the mean normal but with sticky results from year to year. I think it basically comes down to, “one year we have a really good place kicker who makes all his kicks and we’re awesome. The next year he’s back and it’s great again. The year after that he graduates and the next guy isn’t even a sure thing on the extra point.” That’s very normal across college football and it’s what Connelly bakes in for every team.

Texas had a bad place kicker last year, a bad punter, lost most of its impact gunners and blockers while moving the expected replacement (Tre Wisner) to starting running back in fall camp due to injuries, and no longer had Xavier Worthy returning punts. I think Texas will help other teams average out to “regression to the mean” by shooting up into the top 10 after adding a new punter, new place kicker, and retooling the other positions.

However, if you assume Texas is something like +0.3 in special teams next year that is a difference of only +0.8 to the overall SP+ score. That’d move them from 5th…to 4th. So this doesn’t really make that big of a difference although it’d likely be the difference in a close game.

No. 1 defense?

A preseason top ranking is quite generous to the Longhorns, can they live up to that ranking?

The biggest concern here is Texas having to replace another two-deep of good to very good defensive tackles, the hardest position to replace on a football squad. I have doubts about whether Texas can quite maintain the standard it’s established here in recent seasons under Steve Sarkisian. I have mega doubts at the notion Ohio State will hold up well by the same accounting.

The Longhorns basically have three aces up their sleeve here that could make all the difference. First, sophomore Alex January who was an outstanding D-tackle prospect out of Duncanville, was promising in 2024 in limited snaps, and has received great reports in spring practices. Second, Syracuse transfer Maraad Watson who was shockingly good last year as a freshman and now joins the Longhorn unit. Finally, freshman Justus Terry who was a 5-star prospect and could flip a switch at just about any moment and learn how to translate his immense talent into quality D-tackle play. Will the switch flip in fall camp? During the season? In two years? We don’t know.

Then we have cornerback, where Thorpe-winner Jahdae Barron is gone but Duane Akina, the father of Thorpe Awards, is back.

To finish no. 1 overall would be impressive, I don’t know if they’ll land that high but Texas shouldn’t be too far off the mark here.

No. 17 offense?

I think Texas projecting to be 17th in offense is probably a more consequential underrating of the Longhorns than the miserable 135th projection they received for special teams. Do we think the 2025 Longhorns will only score an average of 35.4 points per game against average defenses?

Not unless it’s by choice.

The added explosiveness in the deep passing game that should result from Arch Manning’s ascendance at quarterback is going to be massive. The added explosiveness that should result from Manning’s impact in the run game is also going to add a lot of juice and efficiency to the overall offense. You have speedy deep threats in DeAndre Moore and Ryan Wingo as well who could make a big difference in the numbers. I’d be shocked if the Longhorns aren’t top five by the end of the year in actual offensive efficiency because of these factors.

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So let’s say we’re right down here in Austin about what Manning is fixin’ to do to the rest of college football and Texas has an offensive SP+ score closer to the current no. 5 (Alabama). Let’s substitute the 35.4 offensive SP+ for 40.4. Let’s also bump the defense down to no. 5, which would be about 12.6

Our ex nihilo numbers for Texas now have the Longhorns at an overall SP+ score of 27.8, which is 3rd in the country but still behind Ohio State and Alabama. Still not big favorites for the coming year but definitely in the mix. It seems Bill’s computer formula is about in line with what we think. Since what we think is obviously right, SP+ is properly rating the Longhorns as being in the thick of the title hunt in 2025.