IT Roundtable - Week 4: Oklahoma State
[caption id="attachment_23875" align="alignleft" width="300"]
Johnathan Gray. (Will Gallagher/IT)[/caption]
Texas opens Big 12 play when they host our neighbors to the north, No. 24 Oklahoma State. The Horns haven't beaten OSU at DKR since 2008. Here's some serious prognostication from the staff at Inside Texas on the score, outcome, and Upset of the Week.
1. Texas-OSU score/outcome:
Justin Wells: Texas 41, OSU 34. Home game, new energy, new identity, same old Cowboys. Heard and Company serve gallons of juice in the form of yards and points. Rudolph keeps the Pokes close, but a late turnover gives the Horns the opening-conference win.
Eric Nahlin: 31-24, Texas. This will only be Oklahoma State's second game of the year facing a team without the word 'Central' in the opposing school's name and the other opponent had 'San Antonio' in the school name. Texas is much more battle tested, even if those battles have shown some glaring weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball. Mason Rudolph is a quality quarterback, the Cowboys run game isn't what it once was and they don't have the contingent of outside receiving threats they've had in the past, though there is some danger with David Glidden. Glidden's the Dylan Haines version of Daje Johnson and they do a good job scheming him open. We'd like to see Duke Thomas on him as much as possible. The secondary will be tested much how Texas went after Cal, so play your principles and don't let people get behind you. When JW Walsh comes in, look for ZR. Oklahoma St.'s play-calling and scheme scares me more than the players executing them, though, as I stated, Rudolph is quality. This is a team who was gifted easy points versus UTSA and trailed Central Michigan in the 3rd quarter 13-10. Play accordingly.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Texas 35, OSU 31. Heard/Horns start undefeated in Big 12 play.
Ian Boyd: Texas wins 34-31 thanks to more late game heroics by Heard against a tiring Cowboys pass rush. The Texas D takes some hits but manages to keep OSU from establishing the run and putting them away.
Chris Hall: 35-31, Texas. This young Texas team finally get over the hump.
Bill Frisbie: A wise man once said something about angry men winning football games. Texas should be plenty angry after Saturday’s near-comeback, and Oklahoma State is not nearly as battle-tested as the Horns. This shapes up as a swing game for Strong’s tenure - Texas 34, OSU 30.
Mike Blackwell: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 31
Sean Adams: Texas 35, OSU 31
Michael Pearle: Texas 42, Oklahoma State 38. Texas beat the Pokes in Stillwater with Tyrone Swoopes under center; they will win in Austin with Jerrod Heard running the show.
Clendon Ross: OK, so the Horns seem to have themselves a QB. Maybe even a really good one. That gives me hope. And I continue to hold out hope that the DL overall, but particularly Hassan Ridgeway and Tank Jackson, will start performing at a high level (which will make the back seven look significantly better). But for now, I’m living in Missouri. Until the Texas defense shows me, I don’t believe Vance Bedford’s unit is capable of stopping anyone. Plus, under Strong, Texas has not shown the ability to win a close game against anyone with a pulse. Again, show me and I may believe - Oklahoma State 45, Texas 41.
2. Over/under Jerrod Heard 350 yards of offense:
Justin Wells: Over, but barely. Okie Lite has a salty defense, especially along the line. Heard won't run crazy here simply from the infusion of athletes in the Pokes secondary.
Eric Nahlin: Under. I'm thinking in the neighborhood of 300-320. If he goes over against a competent defense with defensive ends capable of playing the ZR tough, then break out the party hats. I also don't think delayed draw will work as well since OSU has used it so much in the past. You also won't see gimme coverage breakdowns leaving receivers wide open down the sideline. Heard will have to come by his yards more honestly, but he's capable of executing big plays versus anyone. If Texas can run well enough to get man coverage on the outside, Heard will get his either in the run game or big pass, but not like we saw last week, imo.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Over.
Ian Boyd: Just under at 300 total.
Chris Hall: Over. Juice won't be stopped. He'll be a nightmare for Big 12 defenses all year, including Oklahoma State.
Bill Frisbie: Over – In Jerrod I trust.
Mike Blackwell: Under - that's a lot of yards, and OSU has tape now.
Sean Adams: Over.
Michael Pearle: Over. I’m thinking he’ll put up numbers in the 400-yard range.
Clendon Ross: Heard goes over 350 (or else Saturday will be a really long day for Longhorn fans).
3. Over/under Texas defense holding OSU to 400 yards:
Justin Wells: Over, but barely. OSU will move the ball, and at times, even score with it. It just won't be enough for Reindeer Games.
Eric Nahlin: Over, but I think the defense plays its most complete four quarters of the year, with a big play or two allowed skewing the numbers.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Under
Ian Boyd: OSU falls short of 400 thanks to better Texas run D.
Chris Hall: Over. The defense is still MIA. Not sure how that will get remedied in 2015.
Bill Frisbie: Over
Mike Blackwell: Over - seriously, have you seen this defense?
Sean Adams: Over.
Michael Pearle: Over. It’s going to be a track meet on both sides.
Clendon Ross: I think the Texas D will hold the Cowboys under 600 yards (although I believe Cal gets 600-plus if it doesn’t start milking the clock in the fourth quarter.) OSU under 400? Um, no. (See, Missouri, state of)
4. Number of times Wickline/OSU lawsuit is mentioned during broadcast:
Justin Wells: Too many. Attention: Mike Perrin. Settle this crap. Did you get that memo???
Eric Nahlin: Don't know, don't care, won't have sound, but text me so I know when to drink.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: $600,000 times.
Ian Boyd: Just once and briefly.
Chris Hall: 10 times. Same tired storyline will get repeated again and again. My advice: Just settle already and let it go.
Bill Frisbie: Too much.
Mike Blackwell: Two - until the lawsuit is settled next week.
Sean Adams: Four times.
Michael Pearle: Two. Let's talk football.
Clendon Ross: Just one reference, with a cutaway shot to Wickline.
5. What defensive adjustments will Strong/Bedford make on Saturday to contain OSU QB Mason Rudolph?
Justin Wells: Stop the run, test the pass. OSU will try to rush the football. If UT can hold that down, there will be no adjustment.
Eric Nahlin: Play more man (been saying that since Notre Dame) since the receivers aren't all that dangerous and bring more pressure up the middle.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: More blitzing on early downs to get them behind sticks. Lots of cover 3 in between. With the new found point scoring offense, you can gamble to get a handful of stops and/or turnovers. Jerrod Heard just handed Vance Bedford the dice at the craps table of college football.
Ian Boyd: They start by making sure that OSU can't run the ball by playing more 8-man fronts and thus forcing Rudolph into more passing downs where he doesn't have the benefit of play-action to help him find passing windows.
Chris Hall: None, that are incredibly effective.
Bill Frisbie: Won’t be an adjustment, but it will be same ‘ol, same ‘ol: Texas’ front can’t generate a push rush so Bedford blitzes Jefferson and Jinkens.
Mike Blackwell: Put two tackles in the gaps to the center's right and left. Other than getting new players, that's all they can do right now.
Sean Adams: I don't see any changes.
Michael Pearle: May have to leave the details of that to Ian Boyd, but suffice to say, I think the defense does just enough to allow Jerrod to outscore ‘em.
Clendon Ross: The bend-don’t-break philosophy of the first few weeks of the season has been disastrous (with both bending and breaking) so I’d go with a more disruptive approach. But I’m not sure we’ll see that as the coaches seem to be waiting on a sudden ability for the guys on the field to execute.
6. Upset of the Week in CFB:
Justin Wells: Miss State over Auburn. Not sure why this is an upset. Bulldogs are always better than tiger/eagles.
Eric Nahlin: I predict my moderator brethren will almost unanimously go with Tech over TCU but I don't think so. Trevone Boykin isn't Brandon Allen; TCU will get its points. So far this season I've been very close twice and correct once -- so you'll probably want to find the deed to the house and at least end up within the points. Ugh, is it me or has the slate of games kind of sucked to start the season? I'll go with Miss. St. over Auburn which is only kind of an upset but I like the road dog. Auburn sucks. I think Utah beats Oregon.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Raiders serve frog legs, glazed in Mahomes.
Ian Boyd: Tech takes down TCU in Lubbock. That Frog defense is in pieces and Patrick Mahomes is playing with a lot of confidence right now.
Chris Hall: Texas Tech over TCU.
Bill Frisbie: Arkansas over Texas A&M.
Mike Blackwell: Arkansas over Texas A&M - I don't think the Hogs lose three in a row.
Sean Adams: Tech over TCU.
Michael Pearle: Texas Tech over TCU. Going to be fun watching Mahomes and Boykin duke it out. A surging Tech knocks off the Frogs in Lubbock.
Clendon Ross: I was just a tad off on my pick last week (UTSA over OSU) after a couple of good picks the first two weeks, so let me return to the philosophy of picking against teams traveling to a tough opponent’s house. How about Texas Tech over TCU and a bonus, probably wishful-thinking pick of Arkansas over A&M.
Johnathan Gray. (Will Gallagher/IT)[/caption]
Texas opens Big 12 play when they host our neighbors to the north, No. 24 Oklahoma State. The Horns haven't beaten OSU at DKR since 2008. Here's some serious prognostication from the staff at Inside Texas on the score, outcome, and Upset of the Week.
1. Texas-OSU score/outcome:
Justin Wells: Texas 41, OSU 34. Home game, new energy, new identity, same old Cowboys. Heard and Company serve gallons of juice in the form of yards and points. Rudolph keeps the Pokes close, but a late turnover gives the Horns the opening-conference win.
Eric Nahlin: 31-24, Texas. This will only be Oklahoma State's second game of the year facing a team without the word 'Central' in the opposing school's name and the other opponent had 'San Antonio' in the school name. Texas is much more battle tested, even if those battles have shown some glaring weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball. Mason Rudolph is a quality quarterback, the Cowboys run game isn't what it once was and they don't have the contingent of outside receiving threats they've had in the past, though there is some danger with David Glidden. Glidden's the Dylan Haines version of Daje Johnson and they do a good job scheming him open. We'd like to see Duke Thomas on him as much as possible. The secondary will be tested much how Texas went after Cal, so play your principles and don't let people get behind you. When JW Walsh comes in, look for ZR. Oklahoma St.'s play-calling and scheme scares me more than the players executing them, though, as I stated, Rudolph is quality. This is a team who was gifted easy points versus UTSA and trailed Central Michigan in the 3rd quarter 13-10. Play accordingly.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Texas 35, OSU 31. Heard/Horns start undefeated in Big 12 play.
Ian Boyd: Texas wins 34-31 thanks to more late game heroics by Heard against a tiring Cowboys pass rush. The Texas D takes some hits but manages to keep OSU from establishing the run and putting them away.
Chris Hall: 35-31, Texas. This young Texas team finally get over the hump.
Bill Frisbie: A wise man once said something about angry men winning football games. Texas should be plenty angry after Saturday’s near-comeback, and Oklahoma State is not nearly as battle-tested as the Horns. This shapes up as a swing game for Strong’s tenure - Texas 34, OSU 30.
Mike Blackwell: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 31
Sean Adams: Texas 35, OSU 31
Michael Pearle: Texas 42, Oklahoma State 38. Texas beat the Pokes in Stillwater with Tyrone Swoopes under center; they will win in Austin with Jerrod Heard running the show.
Clendon Ross: OK, so the Horns seem to have themselves a QB. Maybe even a really good one. That gives me hope. And I continue to hold out hope that the DL overall, but particularly Hassan Ridgeway and Tank Jackson, will start performing at a high level (which will make the back seven look significantly better). But for now, I’m living in Missouri. Until the Texas defense shows me, I don’t believe Vance Bedford’s unit is capable of stopping anyone. Plus, under Strong, Texas has not shown the ability to win a close game against anyone with a pulse. Again, show me and I may believe - Oklahoma State 45, Texas 41.
2. Over/under Jerrod Heard 350 yards of offense:
Justin Wells: Over, but barely. Okie Lite has a salty defense, especially along the line. Heard won't run crazy here simply from the infusion of athletes in the Pokes secondary.
Eric Nahlin: Under. I'm thinking in the neighborhood of 300-320. If he goes over against a competent defense with defensive ends capable of playing the ZR tough, then break out the party hats. I also don't think delayed draw will work as well since OSU has used it so much in the past. You also won't see gimme coverage breakdowns leaving receivers wide open down the sideline. Heard will have to come by his yards more honestly, but he's capable of executing big plays versus anyone. If Texas can run well enough to get man coverage on the outside, Heard will get his either in the run game or big pass, but not like we saw last week, imo.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Over.
Ian Boyd: Just under at 300 total.
Chris Hall: Over. Juice won't be stopped. He'll be a nightmare for Big 12 defenses all year, including Oklahoma State.
Bill Frisbie: Over – In Jerrod I trust.
Mike Blackwell: Under - that's a lot of yards, and OSU has tape now.
Sean Adams: Over.
Michael Pearle: Over. I’m thinking he’ll put up numbers in the 400-yard range.
Clendon Ross: Heard goes over 350 (or else Saturday will be a really long day for Longhorn fans).
3. Over/under Texas defense holding OSU to 400 yards:
Justin Wells: Over, but barely. OSU will move the ball, and at times, even score with it. It just won't be enough for Reindeer Games.
Eric Nahlin: Over, but I think the defense plays its most complete four quarters of the year, with a big play or two allowed skewing the numbers.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Under
Ian Boyd: OSU falls short of 400 thanks to better Texas run D.
Chris Hall: Over. The defense is still MIA. Not sure how that will get remedied in 2015.
Bill Frisbie: Over
Mike Blackwell: Over - seriously, have you seen this defense?
Sean Adams: Over.
Michael Pearle: Over. It’s going to be a track meet on both sides.
Clendon Ross: I think the Texas D will hold the Cowboys under 600 yards (although I believe Cal gets 600-plus if it doesn’t start milking the clock in the fourth quarter.) OSU under 400? Um, no. (See, Missouri, state of)
4. Number of times Wickline/OSU lawsuit is mentioned during broadcast:
Justin Wells: Too many. Attention: Mike Perrin. Settle this crap. Did you get that memo???
Eric Nahlin: Don't know, don't care, won't have sound, but text me so I know when to drink.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: $600,000 times.
Ian Boyd: Just once and briefly.
Chris Hall: 10 times. Same tired storyline will get repeated again and again. My advice: Just settle already and let it go.
Bill Frisbie: Too much.
Mike Blackwell: Two - until the lawsuit is settled next week.
Sean Adams: Four times.
Michael Pearle: Two. Let's talk football.
Clendon Ross: Just one reference, with a cutaway shot to Wickline.
5. What defensive adjustments will Strong/Bedford make on Saturday to contain OSU QB Mason Rudolph?
Justin Wells: Stop the run, test the pass. OSU will try to rush the football. If UT can hold that down, there will be no adjustment.
Eric Nahlin: Play more man (been saying that since Notre Dame) since the receivers aren't all that dangerous and bring more pressure up the middle.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: More blitzing on early downs to get them behind sticks. Lots of cover 3 in between. With the new found point scoring offense, you can gamble to get a handful of stops and/or turnovers. Jerrod Heard just handed Vance Bedford the dice at the craps table of college football.
Ian Boyd: They start by making sure that OSU can't run the ball by playing more 8-man fronts and thus forcing Rudolph into more passing downs where he doesn't have the benefit of play-action to help him find passing windows.
Chris Hall: None, that are incredibly effective.
Bill Frisbie: Won’t be an adjustment, but it will be same ‘ol, same ‘ol: Texas’ front can’t generate a push rush so Bedford blitzes Jefferson and Jinkens.
Mike Blackwell: Put two tackles in the gaps to the center's right and left. Other than getting new players, that's all they can do right now.
Sean Adams: I don't see any changes.
Michael Pearle: May have to leave the details of that to Ian Boyd, but suffice to say, I think the defense does just enough to allow Jerrod to outscore ‘em.
Clendon Ross: The bend-don’t-break philosophy of the first few weeks of the season has been disastrous (with both bending and breaking) so I’d go with a more disruptive approach. But I’m not sure we’ll see that as the coaches seem to be waiting on a sudden ability for the guys on the field to execute.
6. Upset of the Week in CFB:
Justin Wells: Miss State over Auburn. Not sure why this is an upset. Bulldogs are always better than tiger/eagles.
Eric Nahlin: I predict my moderator brethren will almost unanimously go with Tech over TCU but I don't think so. Trevone Boykin isn't Brandon Allen; TCU will get its points. So far this season I've been very close twice and correct once -- so you'll probably want to find the deed to the house and at least end up within the points. Ugh, is it me or has the slate of games kind of sucked to start the season? I'll go with Miss. St. over Auburn which is only kind of an upset but I like the road dog. Auburn sucks. I think Utah beats Oregon.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Raiders serve frog legs, glazed in Mahomes.
Ian Boyd: Tech takes down TCU in Lubbock. That Frog defense is in pieces and Patrick Mahomes is playing with a lot of confidence right now.
Chris Hall: Texas Tech over TCU.
Bill Frisbie: Arkansas over Texas A&M.
Mike Blackwell: Arkansas over Texas A&M - I don't think the Hogs lose three in a row.
Sean Adams: Tech over TCU.
Michael Pearle: Texas Tech over TCU. Going to be fun watching Mahomes and Boykin duke it out. A surging Tech knocks off the Frogs in Lubbock.
Clendon Ross: I was just a tad off on my pick last week (UTSA over OSU) after a couple of good picks the first two weeks, so let me return to the philosophy of picking against teams traveling to a tough opponent’s house. How about Texas Tech over TCU and a bonus, probably wishful-thinking pick of Arkansas over A&M.
