Making sense of Texas' preseason ranking in ESPN's Football Power Index

With teams, including the Texas Longhorns, reporting for duty over the weekend for the start of summer workouts ahead of the 2024 season, rosters and coaching staffs are all settled save for the possible disgruntled player or controversial coach finding themselves on the outs of their program. As part of the march to the 2024 season, ESPN released on Monday an updated Football Power Index, or FPI.

[Sign up for Inside Texas and get ONE MONTH for $1!]

According to ESPN, FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.

Texas ranked third in FPI behind only the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs and the No. 2 Oregon Ducks. Texas had a FPI of 22.9 made up of a 11.2 from the offense, 10.7 from the defense, and 0.9 from special teams.

Oregon’s FPI was 24.5 and Georgia’s FPI was 26.8. That 3.9 difference between No. 1 and No. 3 is the same as the difference between Texas and the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

FPI also provides projections. Texas’ projected win-loss record after tens of thousands of season simulations was 10.0-2.4. The Longhorns were given a 6.8 percent chance of going undefeated, sixth-best in the nation and second-best in the SEC behind Georgia.

The Longhorns had a 99.1 percent chance of winning six games and a 24.2 percent chance of winning the SEC, again second behind Georgia.

Texas’ chances of making the 12-team College Football Playoff were at 67.8 percent, once again behind only Georgia at 79.1 and Oregon at 76.0.

Texas trailed the Dawgs and the Ducks in the final two categories. The Longhorns were given a 20.6 percent chance of making the national title and a 11.4 percent chance of winning the fifth title in program history.

FPI explains SEC’s place at the top of the sport

Eleven of the top 20 teams in FPI are from the Southeastern Conference, and four of those 11 are on the Longhorns’ schedule. Texas will battle No. 1 Georgia, No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 14 Texas A&M, and No. 20 Florida throughout the course of the season.

Other conferences in the top 20? The Big 10 has five, the ACC has two, and the Big 12 has one. Independent Notre Dame rounds out the list.

Fifteen of the SEC’s 16 teams are in the top 50, with lowest-rated Vanderbilt sitting at No. 76.

Other SEC teams not previously mentioned from Texas’ schedule include No. 34 Kentucky, No. 44 Arkansas, and No. 49 Mississippi State.

From the non-conference slate, Michigan checks in at No. 12, Colorado State is at No. 105, UL Monroe is at No. 129, and UTSA is at No. 56.

All those teams give Texas the No. 10 toughest schedule according to FPI. Nine of the top 10 teams are from the SEC, with Georgia Tech at No. 9 as the sole outlier.

Oh yeah: FPI said there was a 52.5 percent chance of a SEC team winning the national title. The Big 10’s second-place odds? 32.3 percent.

The schedule features some challenges

ESPN put together a list of the 20 biggest games of the season, according to FPI. Texas will take part in four of them.

Georgia at Texas in week eight was listed as the “biggest game” thanks to the high combined FPI ratings of both the Longhorns and the Bulldogs at 97.7. Texas has the fifth biggest game according to the numbers one week prior when the Horns venture to Dallas to take on the Oklahoma Sooners.

The week two non-conference game at Michigan was the seventh biggest game. Last but not least, the return of the rivalry with Texas A&M ranks as 13th biggest game based on combined FPI.

SEC in the FPI

1- Georgia
3- Texas
5- Alabama
8- Oklahoma
9- Tennessee
10- Missouri
13- LSU
14- Texas A&M
16- Ole Miss
19- Auburn
20- Florida
33- South Carlina
34- Kentucky
44- Arkansas
49- Mississippi State
76- Vanderbilt

[Subscribe to the Inside Texas YouTube channel!]

FPI Top 25

1. Georgia
2. Oregon
3. Texas
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. Penn State
7. Notre Dame
8. Oklahoma
9. Tennessee
10. Missouri
11. Florida State
12. Michigan
13. LSU
14. Texas A&M
15. Clemson
16. Ole Miss
17. Kansas
18. USC
19. Auburn
20. Florida
21. Louisville
22. Kansas State
23. Miami
24. Arizona
25. SMU