Maximizing Win Expectancy & Field Goals

Right now, Texas has a kicker that it can’t trust. I wrote about this several weeks ago and recommended that we start making some adjustments to our tactics inside the opponent’s 40 now in preparation for the postseason, but the Longhorn kicker missing two potential game winners in a college football playoff in perfect dome conditions may prioritize this thinking.

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BERT AUBURN HITS THE UPRIGHT AND WE'RE GOING TO OVERTIME pic.twitter.com/1isezCSNdr

— Jake (@jakekolp9) January 1, 2025

Particulary in light of losing the SEC title game in the same dome in overtime with another pair of Auburn misses. Might’ve been fun to be on the other side of this playoff bracket, wouldn’t it?

Bert Auburn is struggling. He’s currently 16 of 25 on the season (64%), 6 of 12 between 40-49, and 0-2 past 50. Against Arizona State, he missed a 48 yarder and a 38 yarder at the 1:39 and 0:03 second mark, respectively. Both game winning attempts.

He wants to succeed as much as anyone. But it’s not happening.

Texas has to deal with reality on its own terms, managing game state by “what a kicker should be expected to make” is now moot. Any decision-making predicated on that notion is now a coaching issue, not a kicking issue.

We even indulged the “oh, we got him on the correct hash, we’ll be fine” theory.

Auburn had been reliable inside the 40, but his last game winning miss was a centered layup from 38 on turf in a climate controlled dome.

Before that last miss, he’d made 10 of 10 between 20-39 and had been reliable on extra points. Maybe that was bad luck. As likely, we’re seeing a larger deterioration, accentuated by the intensity of the moment.

Texas needs to coach assuming the latter.

Texas has to change its approach once they cross the opponent’s 50.

We can reasonably argue about what Texas should do on 4th and 4 from the opponent 12 yard line, but what is no longer debatable – at least for me – is anything between the opponent 20-40.

From the opponent 40 to our 45, if we haven’t learned that Kern will likely bounce the punt into the end zone and negate any field position trade off, we’ve got some other math to work on, too.

About that math. Let’s talk win expectancy. The aggregate or individual decisions in a game that lead to an expected points value.

A 42.8% chance of getting 3 points on any attempt past 40 yards isn’t mathing by even simple counting stats and if you want to go all advanced analytics, Texas is at a point where win expectancy would obviously increase not just going for it on 4th and 3 on the opponent 26 yard line, but also on 4th and 13 from same.

“Oh no, you can’t go for it on 4th and long…..because!”

While I will appreciate banality from color announcers, game thread man, or the halftime show panel that “you must take the points” after a possible fail to convert a 4th and 7 from the opponent 27 yard line as much as anyone, the points are, demonstrably, not there to be taken, and heeding poltroons or dummies isn’t a great tactical plan for life or football.

A few scattershot thoughts:

I’m open to giving Stone a shot, but our coaches watch the kickers practice. Auburn outperforms him. That’s not translating to games, but the kicker who doesn’t kick well on Tuesday but kills it under the lights isn’t a thing I’m familiar with. Now add in the playoff Final 4 spotlight for a naive kicker.

The staff has to be brave enough to ignore the platitude-spouters, who are greatly emboldened by the opportunity to opine when any correctly calculated risk fails. Particularly in a “big game.”

If we embrace this, it actually unlocks a real opportunity against an opponent where points will be at a premium.

The decision to embrace 4th down as another down to score or get a 1st down changes not only the 4th down decisions right outside of the red zone, but play-calling once Texas crosses the 50. Sark can call downs 1st through 3rd very differently with another down in his back pocket. He can be extremely aggressive, he can be contrarian, if the running or short passing game is clicking, he can be patient, he can hunt more single shot scores if he guesses right.

Sark has a “free down” to make something happen. Or enforce the game state of his choice.

That’s critical.

Given Texas red zone issues near the goal line and Ohio State’s excellent defense, there is an additional imperative for Texas to try to throw it to the end zone between the 20-40. That’s when you still have some room, but more crucially that’s when 90% of defensive coordinators bring their favorite blitzes to knock you out of field goal range or force a field goal by inflicting a negative.

They assume the offense’s tactics and it doesn’t involve three more downs to throw after a 4 yard gain on 1st down.

It just so happens that Jim Knowles is that DC.

Throwing blitz beaters to the end zone, a RPO replacement route aimed right at the vacated spot the Caleb Downs had been standing, or your favorite TE leak combo becomes much more actionable.

Texas can get Ohio State uncomfortable.

However, this understanding must be communicated and repped now.

You don’t feel your way into this strategy depending on game vibes.

Texas should commit and then game plan with the 4 down imperative past the 50 in mind. This isn’t something you feel your way into. Resolve will collapse in the moment and if you do decide to go for it spontaneously, you actually didn’t use the full benefit of downs 1-3.

4th down can’t be “We’ll see.” It should be “We’re gonna.”

Deciding now also means psychologically preparing the entire team for 4th down momentum shifts. Sell it the right way, and it’s a motivator. “We’re putting the game in your hands. We’re here to score touchdowns and kick ass against a team that everyone thinks is going to blow us out.”

Texas fans were impressed with Arizona State’s approach to our game.

In this game, we’re the Sun Devils.

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On Friday January 10th, Texas has to think, coach and play like the underdog.