New RPM prediction for Five-Star Plus+ Arch Manning
After mentioning the recruitment of 2023 New Orleans (La.) Isidore Newman QB and Five-Star Plus+ Arch Manning as something worth Texas fans paying attention to, even briefly before Tom Herman’s 2020 curtain call, I’ve entered an official prediction for Texas to land the nation’s top prospect.
With a confidence level of 70 percent, I’m right about where I was before the Oklahoma State game in October when I predicted Texas with 75 percent confidence.
Truth be told, I feel quite strongly he’d already be a Longhorn commit if the season hadn’t culminated with Texas finishing 1-6 over its last seven games. That will give anyone pause.
That finish shook my confidence in this recruitment only temporarily, but my knowledge of Manning’s process led me to believe it was more of a blip rather than derailment.
While Manning is incredibly football focused, his process to find a school is more holistic. He’s looking at the decision from the standpoint of a student as well as football player.
As a football prospect, despite the 5-7 record, there are still plenty of things to like about UT’s trajectory under Steve Sarkisian. The big point in UT’s favor being talent acquisition. Manning knows to reach his potential he needs to be surrounded by players of similar caliber. A big question at Texas was the offensive line but Steve Sarkisian and Kyle Flood could not have addressed that issue any better in 2022.
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I was quick to report the addition of Quinn Ewers would not likely affect Manning’s decision one way or the other. There will be talented quarterbacks on the roster wherever he goes, and Ewers’ reclassification from the 2022 to 2021 class means the overlap between those two might only be one year; a year in which Arch could redshirt.
Neither myself, nor Justin and Gerry, have heard the Mannings were prioritizing immediate playing time. In fact, a year for Arch to develop would likely be preferable as UT’s young offensive line talent would have more time to be brought up to speed. Similarly, any wide receivers who sign in 2023 would have a year to develop in the system.
In the end, my number one reason for confidence is Manning’s relationship with Sarkisian. When Sark was hired I said this recruitment would go to the next level and it immediately did. And it’s not just that Sark is a likable guy, the Mannings hold his ability to develop quarterbacks in high regard.
Arch’s father Cooper almost went to Texas. Arch’s uncle Eli almost went to Texas. And Arch’s sister May almost went to Texas.
My prediction is the fourth time is the charm for Texas and a Manning.
