Peering through the hubble: Big 12 matchups that matter in Week 7

Last week’s Big 12 slate was pretty light save for featuring the biggest game of the season in the Red River Shootout. This week we’ll get a load of Big 12 games, some rivalry matchups, and everything is going to come into much sharper focus in terms of the Big 12 Championship picture.

As always, I’ll try and have a particular eye on the big space matchups and then work down from there. The big space matchups in a given football game are edge vs left tackle and cornerback vs wide receiver.

Let’s dive in.

Oklahoma State at Texas (-5)

Is Xavier Worthy the most dangerous deep threat receiver in the Big 12? He’s caught 25 balls on the year for 531 yards and six touchdowns through six games, despite a downright bad game against TCU. The 531 number puts him atop the Big 12 currently, as do the six receiving touchdowns.

In a related story, Casey Thompson is averaging a league-best 11.3 ypa.

How much of this is due to the focus opposing teams are putting on Bijan Robinson? A lot. Oklahoma stacked the box against the Longhorn run game though and not only did Bijan still run for over 100 yards and average over 6.0 ypc, but it left them exposed to play-action to Worthy and also Joshua Moore.

My main point is this, Texas hasn’t had a deep threat receiver like this in quite a long while. They now have one at exactly the same time they happen to have one of their best running backs I’ve seen in burnt orange this century. It’s a potent combo.

For the entire offseason I’ve discussed how Oklahoma State missing Rodarius Williams looms large over their season. Now we come to it. Baylor was able to land some shots on the ‘Pokes a few weeks back, I’m positive Texas will attempt a great many more and I don’t think OSU can hold up without exposing themselves to the risk of a big day by Bijan.

It’s not just a matter of playing a single high safety either to take away the post or playing a deep 1/2 safety over Worthy. Texas has shown they can get Moore open down the field as well and against OU Thompson finally hit him a couple of times. This is the Steve Sarkisian offense fully realized, scheming up multiple deep threats, and a survey of league history tells us that you can win the Big 12 simply by hitting on these regularly.

So I like Texas -5, I don’t think the OSU defense will prove as potent when they have to deal with maximal field stress and can’t park their 215 pound safeties flat-footed at nine yards deep.

BYU at Baylor (-6.5)

This is fun, Jeff Grimes and Eric Mateos go up against their former team and Baylor tests their wide one offense against Kalani Sitake’s defense. There’s also the future of this game when BYU joins the Big 12 conference, best name I’ve seen yet for this potential rivalry is probably the “Dr Pepper Bowl” as the Mormon BYU folks abstain from caffeine while Waco is the home of this particular beverage.

Perhaps “the teetotaler classic” is another option. We’ll workshop this.

It was almost better. BYU nearly started a quarterback in this game literally named Baylor Romney, and yes he’s related to Mitt Romney. We may still see him. I’d say cross your fingers but this would require wishing poor health on BYU’s other quarterback Jaren Hall, so let’s not do that.

BYU hasn’t lost a step on offense without Grimes and Mateos, they return a lot of receivers and running back Tyler Allgeier from a year ago and still have a lot of lanky, super-old offensive linemen to execute wide zone. On defense they list 16 starting positions and I have little idea who does what. What is a “Frodo” or a “cinco?”

I can see plainly enough they have a ton of Islanders across the front, tons of stout players overall, and the linebackers at the top of their stat lists have fairly high numbers under the TFL column. So overall I’m reasonably sure of what we’ll get from the Cougars on defense. They’ll blitz in groups of four and five, play off at safety, and be a general pain for Baylor.

In terms of the space matchups, the Cougars have some big receivers outside who will be a challenge for the Baylor cornerbacks. The main weapons are Neil Pau’u, a former 2-star quarterback they converted into a receiver who has some size at 6-foot-4, 215, and then Gunnar Romney (yes) who’s 6-foot-2.

Presumably BYU will bracket Tyquan Thornton and see how Gerry Bohanon fares without his favorite target. The challenge for Baylor is then whether or not they can execute the wide zone run game against a front as tough as BYU’s.

This game is ultimately meaningless for the Big 12 race in 2021 but it should tell us more about Baylor, about whom we still don’t know enough, and will be a fun prelude to a future rivalry.

Texas Tech (-16.5) at Kansas

This seems like an easy bounce back game for Texas Tech, who slid back into “ah crap, I’m fired” territory after losing to TCU in Lubbock. If Kansas can put together a good effort here they may be worth another look as a team of interest.

TCU @ Oklahoma (-13.5)

This is the big test for young Caleb Williams and Oklahoma.

They’ll probably have tougher tests than this 3-2 TCU team which (allegedly) has “questionable” starters at quarterback and running back between Max Duggan and Zach Evans. Still, TCU will gameplan for Williams and Gary Patterson will want this one badly.

TCU has had a revolving door at safety and at the end of the Texas Tech game they’d settled on a trio of Donovann Collins (5-foot-11, 188 pound converted cornerback), T.J. Carter (5-foot-11, 180 pound converted cornerback) and La’Kendrick VanZandt (6-foot-1, 195 pounds). So OU knows what they’re getting there, this group will play a ton of read and steal coverage, relying on Collins and Carter to play coverage while VanZandt helps load the box to stop Williams and the run game.

With that set-up, they could just make things difficult for OU, force them to either beat coverage down the field or else maintain steady drives on the ground. I think Williams may be a future star but I don’t love this line. The TCU secondary will make things a bit tricky on OU throwing the ball. If Khari Coleman can have a big game this season that’d go a long ways as well.

On the flip side, Texas exposed the Oklahoma secondary and defense a week ago, although TCU doesn’t have the same kind of play-action passing game. The Frogs will aim to spread the Sooners out and make their linebackers and safeties prove they can close with leverage and tackle Duggan and Evans (assuming they play, of course). I think they’ll have mixed results.

TCU’s Obinna Eze and their overall protection schemes will have an interesting day against Isaiah Thomas and Nik Bonitto, this is where they could lose the game, maybe big. I’d pick TCU if Quentin Johnston was a sure thing to play AND they’d shown a pulse in getting him the ball this year. The Sooner cornerbacks are in bad shape without Woodi Washington.

Iowa State (-6.5) at Kansas State

Farmageddon!

Both teams are coming off a bye week so this should be an absolute war. K-State fans have come to loathe the Iowa State crew, probably because they came out of nowhere to take their mantle as the hard-nosed, overachieving team from the Midwest in the Big 12.

These teams are also both in position to basically knock themselves out of the Big 12 title race with a loss, so the stakes are pretty darn high. Skylar Thompson is two weeks healthier than he was against Oklahoma which helps a great deal, while Iowa State is two weeks better in their passing game and overall offensive rhythm.

Overall, I think Iowa State’s run game is going to be a big problem in this game for the Wildcats. K-State’s run defense just hasn’t been there and they haven’t nailed the angles in the flyover defense, meanwhile Breece Hall and the Cyclone front are continuing to mash people.

Space matchups in this one are mixed. Felix Anudike and Will McDonald, fourth of that name, are both going to have opportunities against the tackles in this game. Iowa State will probably be able to protect Brock “pump fake” Purdy more easily on play-action and McDonald and the Cyclone pass rush is better.

Kansas State’s outside coverage has been good, which is a big potential boost in this game if they’ll make the most of it with Cover 3 rather than their Tampa 2 which they don’t play particularly well. Iowa State doesn’t rely much on their cornerbacks man2man and won’t start now with Malik Knowles and Thompson working together.

I think I foresee a solid Iowa State win with K-State’s best chance of making it close coming from Thompson making a few throws and Deuce Vaughn doing his thing.

One of Texas, K-State, Iowa State, or Oklahoma State is going to look much more dubious for a Big 12 title berth after this week. Which will it be?

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