Projecting the 12-team College Football Playoff (and explaining the process)

ATLANTA – The loss in the SEC Championship by the Texas Longhorns was a painful one for Steve Sarkisian‘s program, but the hurt was dissipated by the knowledge that the Longhorns can still play for the national title.

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“The beauty for us is this stings, it’s hard, but we get a chance to regroup in a couple weeks and get into the College Football Playoff and go compete for a national championship,” Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said following the SEC Championship. “I think we’re plenty good enough to go win that, but we’re going to need to get healthy so we can put our best foot forward to make that happen.”

Now that the regular season and conference championships are compete, the question remains: who’s in?

The field of 12 will be announced tomorrow in a televised special on ESPN that starts at 11 a.m.

The process

Straight from the CFP:

The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and will receive a first-round bye. The remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 based on their final ranking.

Non-conference champions and independents, like Notre Dame, ranked in the top four will be seeded beginning at No. 5. Because of this, the seeding, 1 through 12, could look different than the final rankings.

The knowns

Oregon is the No. 1 seed: The Ducks made it through the year as the sole undefeated team in FBS, earned multiple tough wins, and won their conference championship over Penn State in a game that looked more Big 12 than Big 10. The Ducks are the No. 1 team and deserve top billing.

Georgia is the No. 2 seed: Georgia will gladly accept the bye as a result of their win in the SEC Championship over Texas.

Boise State is the likely No. 3 seed: There was a misconception that the four byes would automatically go to the Power Four champions. Practically, that outcome was always most likely. Then the 2024 season happened. Boise State was ranked No. 10 in the most recent Playoff rankings and topped No. 20 UNLV on Friday night. Despite their status in the Group of 5, the system is what the system is and the Broncos will most likely avoid a first round game thanks to the efforts of Ashton Jeanty across the 2024 season.

Clemson and Arizona State are in and fighting for the last bye: That leaves the No. 4 seed. Arizona State was ranked No. 15 and beat No. 16 Iowa State. Clemson was No. 17 and beat No. 8 SMU. The Tigers winning the ACC but not earning a bye would say a lot about what the committee thinks about the ACC… maybe? This is a new world in the 12-team playoff.

What’s likely, yet needs to be confirmed

All these are likely but not locks.

Notre Dame, Texas, and Penn State are getting home games: Texas isn’t going to drop far from No. 2. Nor is Penn State going to drop far from No. 3. Both those teams suffered their second losses of the year in conference championship games, exciting ones at that. Notre Dame, proudly independent, entered the weekend ranked No. 4. They cannot earn a bye as a result of the format of this 12-team playoff, so their highest possible seeding is No. 5. They signed off on this system to get a home game in the Playoff. They’ll get it, as will the Nittany Lions and Longhorns.

What needs to be sorted out

Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, SMU, Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina, teams that fancy themselves as being of Playoff caliber, were not in action. Many of those teams will make up the first ever 12-team field. A handful will be apoplectic at the fact they weren’t included.

Rankings prediction (top 15)

1. Oregon (13-0)
2. Georgia (11-2)
3. Texas (11-2)
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
5. Penn State (11-2)
6. Ohio State (10-2)
7. Tennessee (10-2)
8. Boise State (12-1)
9. Indiana (11-1)
10. SMU (11-2)
11. Alabama (9-3)
12. Arizona State (11-2)
13. Clemson (10-3)
14. Miami (10-2)
15. Ole Miss (9-3)

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Bracket projection

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State

5. Texas
12. Clemson

6. Notre Dame
11. SMU

7. Penn State
10. Indiana

8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee