Projecting possible scenarios in the SEC Championship race
Man plans and God laughs, but this projection tool can take you down some rabbit holes.
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I picked every likely favorite to win (some guessing there) and A&M to beat LSU with Georgia winning out.
1. Georgia (7 – 1) Above Texas and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
2. Texas (7 – 1) With Texas A&M, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375). Above Texas A&M based on head-to-head record (1-0).
3. Texas A&M (7 – 1) With Texas, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375). Below Texas based on head-to-head record (0-1).
4. LSU (6 – 2) With Tennessee, above Alabama based on record vs. common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). Above Tennessee based on winning percentage against #10 teams all played one time (1-0).
5. Tennessee (6 – 2) With LSU, above Alabama based on record vs. common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). Below LSU based on winning percentage against #10 teams all played one time (0-1).
6. Alabama (6 – 2) Below LSU and Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
What if LSU beats A&M?
1. Georgia (7 – 1) With LSU, above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531). Above LSU based on Capped Relative Scoring Margin (not actual placement: you must check yourself).
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2. LSU (7 – 1) With Georgia, above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531). Below Georgia based on Capped Relative Scoring Margin (not actual placement: you must check yourself).
3. Texas (7 – 1) Below Georgia and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
4. Alabama (6 – 2) Above Tennessee and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).
5. Texas A&M (6 – 2) With Tennessee, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531). Above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
6. Tennessee (6 – 2) With Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594). Below Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).
More general principles are distilled here.
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Bottom line: Texas needs to win out in SEC play and let the chips fall where they may.
