Scouting Texas' first SEC schedule

As much as Steve Sarkisian would like to defer public discussions about Texas’ future in the SEC until they’re no longer competing for a Big 12 Championship (or perhaps for after they defeat an SEC team) now the schedule is out the conversation has to at least be broached.

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What is Texas up against in year one in the SEC and how ready will their team be for the challenge?

Here’s the main schedule, released on the SEC Network last night:

• at Michigan
• at Texas A&M
• at Arkansas
• at Vanderbilt
• Red River Shootout
• Georgia
• Mississippi State
• Florida
• Kentucky

Here’s what matters in terms of Texas’ readiness for this slate:

Anticipating Texas’ roster strength in 2024

Some components of a college football roster are easily reloaded and don’t have to endure developmental cycles in today’s era. Namely the skill positions of defensive back, wide receiver, running back, etc. You need a staff of pretty poor planners at a school like Texas to lack good players at those positions when you should be able to either elevating a rising upperclassman, plug in a blue chip underclassman who’s ready, or find a proven player in the transfer portal.

Quarterback could be this way as well, depending on the nature of the scheme. Lincoln Riley and many of the Air Raid coaches excel at plugging in transfers for quick results thanks to the Air Raid’s 3-day install and orientation around shot plays.

Sark’s offense isn’t really like that. While he has a similar talent for designing shot plays, he teaches his quarterbacks a wide array of formations and concepts while emphasizing RPOs as a spread run game adjunct whereas Riley uses traditional read-option. Unless Sark has a practiced back-up waiting in the wings, his programs are going to be vulnerable to cycles. Recruits like Maalik Murphy and Trey Owens are intended to forestall that risk by ensuring Texas can fill any gaps around guys like Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning.

At other positions there’s no way to avoid boom/bust cycles other than to recruit and develop serious depth in every class. Linebacker and tight end are such positions which both hybrid positions that ask a lot physically and (more importantly) mentally from their practitioners. Offensive and defensive line are the real standouts though. Texas has been stockpiling “big humans” for the last few years in anticipation of needing upperclassmen who are ready to go to war in the trenches with the best in the SEC.

Quarterback is an open question for 2024. We don’t know if Ewers will be back for another season or how ready Murphy or Arch might be in a year’s time. Offensive line is going to be as well prepared as you could imagine thanks to the legendary 2022 class and the extra cattle herding Kyle Flood did in 2023. Linebacker is well stocked with developmental players but whether they’ll be ready in 2024 when Jaylan Ford has moved on is a real question. Tight end won’t lack for reliable blocking but may be missing some pop if Ja’Tavion Sanders goes pro.

Defensive line is the position group we’ll all be watching. First for what the NFL Draft claims from the upperclassmen group of Byron Murphy, Alfred Collins, and Trill Carter. Secondly for how the younger players like Sydir Mitchell, Aaron Bryant, or Jaray Bledsoe look coming up the ranks.

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Anticipating opponent strength in the 2024 schedule

The 2024 season is over a year away, but particularly in a league where line play really matters you can peak ahead and anticipate contenders to some degree.

Suffice to say on Michigan that Jim Harbaugh has them in a very good place right now but next year they will likely be without J.J. McCarthy and playing their physical brand up at Ann Arbor in September ain’t the same as doing so in October, November, or December. Believe me.

We’ve talked a good deal here already about how Oklahoma is up against it trying to build the sort of defensive front Brent Venables had at Clemson. Texas’ other old rival Arkansas appears to be pivoting away from majoring in football in order to emphasize basketball under Eric Musselman.

The road game at Texas A&M is going to be as emotional as it gets. The Aggies should have Conner Weigman and Evan Stewart barring some sort of catastrophe. All of the O-line and D-line blue chips they’ve been stocking will be in put up or shut up mode in 2023 and Jimbo Fisher probably hangs onto his job until he’s had his chance at Texas.

Texas’ other SEC West draw Mississippi State is in a state of transition now due to the passing of the pirate Mike Leach. They promoted defensive coordinator Zach Arnett and he brought in App State’s offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay so their system is undergoing an overhaul from the original Air Raid to a more run-centric approach. The new style might fit Mississippi State well in the long-term but it isn’t going to be an easy transition nor give them a unique counterpunch like Leach brought.

Out East is where Texas is really drawing quite the slate, aside from Vanderbilt. Mark Stoops has Kentucky playing like a true SEC team with big, physical fronts and an annually strong defense. They’re essentially what Mississippi State will be aspiring to be under Arnett. Last year Stoops wasted contract year Will Levis and surrounded him with virtually zero impact receivers (in this portal economy?) instead trying to win by bludgeoning their opponents while playing in the same division as Georgia. Their recruiting isn’t necessarily impressive but they’re one of those SEC teams whose draft results still speak to the amount of big people in the region.

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Georgia is in no danger of cycling down in terms of their hallmark positions of O-line, D-line, linebacker, and tight end. Not only are they bringing in plenty of new recruits at those positions but they’re continuing to load up with extraordinary athletes who will allow them to continue their trend of being both bigger and faster in the box than everyone else. Drawing them in Austin may be a blessing or a curse depending on the shape of Texas’ starting quarterback and whether they have to make a return trip to Athens in 2025.

Finally there’s overlooked Florida, who’s new regime under Billy Napier has faced a lot of negative press and has had a cloud of doom in the media over the new program direction. Napier is quietly on his own “big human” hunt and he’s been reloading the cupboard Dan Mullen left him with what could be the biggest linemen in the league. The other notable thing about Napier’s Florida for Texas to consider is his knack for quarterback development and deployment.

Anthony Richardson‘s combine got all the attention but his draft film was striking for how much better he’d become at seeing the field and hitting progressions in the passing game in just a year under Napier. For this coming year they’ve brought in Graham Mertz, who was once expected to lead Wisconsin into a halcyon period of passing offense and instead fizzled. I think Mertz is actually a lot better than his numbers throwing in Madison have shown and this season could prove to be an alert about Napier’s acumen.

Florida may end up being able to nail down two keys to standing out in the SEC, building large, physical lines and getting winning playmaking at quarterback. That’s been Texas’ own strategy for preparing for this jump and this game could differentiate which new head coach is executing the vision.

Texas could have drawn a tougher slate but this is certainly not an easy schedule and the extra inclusion of Michigan on the front end guarantees Sark’s Longhorns are going to be tested up front on both sides of the ball by the most SEC-ish of SEC traits, uniquely large and physical linemen. Enjoy 2023 and watch for how Texas’ younger linemen are coming along, they will be needed in 2024.