Scouting the Oklahoma Sooners run game

As will likely be the case for the Red River Shootout, the Oklahoma Sooners didn’t have any good, healthy receivers for their contest with Auburn. That almost didn’t matter since the gameplan was always necessarily going to revolve around quarterback Michael Hawkins running around, but it was revelatory to see how Seth Littrell and the Sooner offensive staff put together the gameplan with such a limitation. They’ll need to build on that gameplan in order to compete with the favored Texas Longhorns.

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The advantage of having Hawkins at the helm was always going to be adding an extra ballcarrier and gap for the defense to worry about when defending the run game. The disadvantage was Auburn knew Oklahoma wasn’t going to be interested in throwing many passes. Who would they throw them to? The Sooners played three different tight ends in this game owing to the lack of depth out wide.

Oklahoma may have slot receiver Deion Burks back for the Red River Shootout but Texas can probably expect OU to attempt a similar gameplan. Here’s the run-centric form the Sooner offense has taken in light of their current situation.

The Auburn run game report

Here’s what Oklahoma called in the Auburn game.

Concept	Result
Split zone	Five carries for 10 yards, 2.0 ypc
Duo	Five carries for 12 yards, 2.4 ypc
Scramble	Five carries for 55 yards, 10.0 ypc, one touchdown
Toss sweep	Two carries for 11 yards, 5.5 ypc
Lead draw	Two carries for 8 yards, 4.0 ypc
Power-read	Two carries for six yards, 3.0 ypc
Zone-read	Two carries for three yards, 1.5 ypc
Dart-read	Two carries for 18 yards, 9.0 ypc
Zone-arrow	One carry for two yards, 2.0 ypc, one touchdown
Y-iso	One carry for two yards, 2.0 ypc
QB follow	One carry for two yards, 2.0 ypc
Speed option	One carry for three yards, 3.0 ypc
11 personnel	16 carries for 107 yards, 6.7 ypc, two touchdowns
12 personnel	11 carries for 30 yards, 2.7 ypc, zero touchdowns
21 personnel	Two carries for seven yards, 3.5 ypc
QB designed runs	Six carries for 16 yards, 2.7 ypc
Overall	29 carries for 144 yards at 5.0 ypc with two rushing touchdowns

In reality, split zone, Duo, QB follow, zone-arrow, and Y-iso are all just variations on the same basic inside zone scheme that is the underpinning of the Sooner run game. Their Duo play is probably labelled as inside zone in the playbook but the way they run it I tend to describe as Duo. Unfortunately for the Sooners, it’s taken to this point in the season to be able to reliably execute the blocking scheme without giving up tackles for loss. Improving to the point where they can actually drive opponents off the ball may take until the 2025 season.

The zone-read and speed-option plays utilized outside zone blocking, which Oklahoma doesn’t look as comfortable executing and is a smaller part of the playbook. “Dart-read” was a power scheme that pulled the backside tackle to the tight end side while Hawkins read the backside to pull the ball on a quarterback keeper if they crashed down off the edge. Nearly every concept involved the quarterback as a run-threat if not the primary ballcarrier.

None of it particularly worked. A single long scramble of 48 yards where they caught Auburn in a zero-blitz supplied 33% of the day’s rushing offense. On the other hand, with Hawkins reading run options every snap (no RPOs, all keeper options) and the original fall camp starting five, the Sooners at least avoided negative plays. Only a single split zone play failed to pick up at least a yard, which protected Oklahoma from having as many obvious passing downs.

What should Texas expect?

Again, if you remove the long scramble, you get a different number on Oklahoma’s plays from 11 personnel. Instead of 16 carries for 107 yards you get 15 for 59 yards, which only averages out to 3.9 ypc. Still better than the results in 12 personnel, but not great.

Neither are ideal for attacking the defenses Texas has played against the Veer and Shoot offense in the past. The best way to get after the Longhorns is by spreading the field with four receivers. When you play with four removed receivers, the defense has to make a difficult choice. Do they roll a safety down to cover the fourth receiver (the first three are matched by the cornerbacks and nickel)? Or do they remain in a two-high coverage and play with a 5-man box as Texas did against Mississippi State.

But if the offense brings the tight end into the formation, everything changes for the defense:

Not only does the linebacker get to rejoin the box but the safety who was aligned behind him to protect the defense from deeper passes can also position himself to fit the run aggressively. By adding a tight end to the box, the offense is adding two defenders. Even worse, Oklahoma’s tight ends aren’t good blockers. It’s a losing proposition and this geometry problem was a major factor in Oklahoma’s struggles to find any running room against the Tigers. They could block at the line of scrimmage but there was always a free hitting defender showing up before long to limit the positive gains.

So what will the Sooners do? We can’t be sure, but they should be entering this game thinking “we have to play 10/11 personnel and flex the tight end more often than not.” The best chance Oklahoma has in this game is to mirror the approach of Mississippi State but with a heavier emphasis on the quarterback run game rather than hand-offs to the running back.

For instance, lead draw or different iterations of quarterback counter where the running back is lead blocking for Hawkins…

…and GT counter-read with the quarterback reading the backside end and keeping if he chases the running back:

Or alternatively, the running back taking the outside sweep if the backside end crashes while the quarterback runs behind the pulling blockers:

The Sooners need to rely on a spread field and involving the quarterback option game to help block a light box as their O-line can’t do it without help and the help ain’t coming from the tight ends.

The Sooners also need to call considerably more passing plays just to increase the chances of Hawkins finding room on a scramble, which is still the most dangerous quarterback run. He’ll need to run the ball 20+ times like Sam Ehlinger (22 for 110 yards) for the Sooners to have a chance at manufacturing offense.

Ehlinger had 22 carries for 110 yards in 2017 in a narrow 29-24 loss against a vastly superior Oklahoma team. In 2018 he had 19 carries for 72 yards and three rushing touchdowns in a 48-45 upset win (predicted solely by yours truly). In 2019 he had 23 carries for -9 yards due to a high number of sacks in a 34-27 loss. In 2020 he was back at 23 carries for 112 yards and four touchdowns, all of them essential in dragging the ‘Horns to overtime where they lost 53-45.

The shoe’s on the other foot now. Texas is far ahead of Oklahoma in raw talent level and actual skill. Without dramatic and effective hero-ball from the Sooner quarterback to even things out this game won’t be much of a contest. If the Longhorns aren’t gameplanning with an expectation of the Sooners spreading them out in order to spam quarterback runs, they’re preparing to find themselves in a dogfight as Oklahoma routinely was against the Ehlinger Longhorns.

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The Red River Shootout has often been defined by the underdog going all-in on a gameplan designed to even the playing field, often involving a heavy burden for the quarterback. If Oklahoma can get it right, they could have a chance to be the spoiler in 2024.