Seven keys to watch for as Texas opens Big 12 play against Baylor

Entering the season Texas’ goal was to win the Big 12 Championship and perhaps contend for a playoff spot. After the win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa, sights may have been set a little bit higher. But first thing’s first, Texas must win tonight in Baylor, hopefully convincingly, to show the program is playing to a standard and not down to its competition. The more you play to your competition’s level the more likely you are to suffer an embarrassing or season-altering loss.

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Baylor does not seem to have the makings of a good team this year. The Bears suffered an opening season loss to their new rivals on I-35, the Texas State Bobcats, and followed that up with a last second loss at home to Utah. Last week they beat a school most people had never heard of, and it wasn’t exactly pretty. 

Injuries haven’t been kind to the Bears as starting quarterback Blake Shapen was injured in the opener. In addition, quality Big 12 running back Dominic Richardson is also out. 

This has all the makings of a convincing Texas win if the players’ focus matches an intentional game plan.

1. A hot start from Quinn Ewers

This would demonstrate QB1 and Steve Sarkisian are synced and have a plan to exploit Dave Aranda’s defense. If Ewers can start fast, like he did against Alabama, he’s going to stay that way because Baylor’s defense will be off balance defending both the pass and run.

How about some quick high percentage throws to start the game that pick up ‘run-game’ yardage? Texas has a nice advantage with Jordan Whittington on Baylor’s nickel back that could serve that purpose.

2. Prepared for kitchen sink blitzes

Last year Baylor made it a game by getting pressure — typically up the middle — on Texas’ young O-line. The O-line isn’t as young now and has shown improvement throughout the season after a difficult start against Rice. The Owls definitely threw the kitchen sink with their blitz packages. Aranda will as well.

3. Run the dang ball

Baylor has been gashed by the run this season, even giving up nearly five yards a carry against LIU. I already Googled it for you, yes Long Island University is a real school. While Baylor has had difficulty with the run, the Bears do have some nice D-line pieces up front in Gabe Hall and TJ Franklin. Texas should have talented freshman CJ Baxter back. While he may be on a pitch count after missing last week, this game could set up as a genuine breakout similar to Jonathon Brooks‘ game last week against Wyoming. 

4. Can Texas minimize the self-inflicted wounds?

Texas played a pretty clean game in Tuscaloosa at night on the road. There were some drops but they executed well on offense and kept the penalties to a minimum. If UT minimizes pre-snap penalties and receiver drops its going to be difficult for Baylor to keep this game competitive. 

5. Press the D-line advantage

Baylor’s O-line is okay while UT’s D-line is a team strength. The group led by T’Vondre Sweat, Byron Murphy, and Alfred Collins may in fact be the best D-line in the nation. Texas has a huge advantage to press in a couple of different ways. First, Baylor has some quality running backs and will want to run the ball. Even if running back Dominic Richardson is out, Baylor still has Richard Reese and Dawson Pendergrass ready to go. Baylor OC Jeff Grimes, known for his outside zone running scheme, is going to want to lean on the run game. If Texas shuts that down Baylor is dead in the water. Second, Baylor is yet again forced to start Sawyer Robertson in place of Shapen. Any pressure on him will force him from the pocket or into bad decisions. Robertson does look to throw the ball down the field. Often those throws take time to develop. Any pressure the D-line produces will help UT’s corners out.

This game could be similar to the Rice game in which Texas won it up front and not much else mattered.

6. Xavier Worthy seems primed for a punt return TD

The star receiver has the green light to return the ball this season after a marathon of fair catches last year. On a couple of occasions we’ve seen him come close to taking one the distance. With an already good defense, quality special teams is a cheat code that helps pick up the slack when the offense sputters. It’s a matter of when, not if Worthy can be found celebrating a special teams touchdown.

7. Will Baylor have much of a home field advantage?

Yes, it’s the Bears Super Bowl but this isn’t 1985. The wind is out of the Baylor fan bases’ sails after the tough start to the season. That’s on the heels of a difficult season last year and coupled with a looooong contract for the likable, yet perhaps overmatched Dave Aranda. The Bears simply haven’t replenished the talent on the shelves previously stocked by Matt Rhule.

Meanwhile enthusiasm is in the opposite direction for the Longhorns. Word is, over 260 private jets flew to Tuscaloosa and surrounding areas for the Bama game. Given the magnitude of that game it is a bit of an outlier, but it is in an indicator of overall fan enthusiasm. People of more modest means will happily make the short drive to Waco to support their ‘Horns. 

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Texas could really use a clean Big 12 opener to jumpstart what it hopes is a Big 12 Championship season at minimum.

It all starts tonight in Waco at 6:30 p.m.