Should a 10-2 Texas make the College Football Playoffs?

I’ll preface this by saying hopefully we never learn the answer to the question and at worst we find out if an 11-2 Texas will make the playoffs (answer: yes).

There’s been a lot of chatter on Twitter from respected pundits such as Bud Elliott and Josh Pate that Texas wouldn’t be deserving of the playoffs at 10-2. With Texas having two losable games upcoming between Kentucky at home and A&M on the road the hypothetical is worth entertaining.

Missing the playoffs would be quite the precipitous fall for a Texas program that finds itself yet again as the No. 2 seed in Tuesday night’s rankings release. Admittedly, Texas’ schedule and the high profile loss to Georgia haven’t done the team any favors.

Strength of schedule

But for all the talk about strength of schedule, Texas is No. 24 in the Massey ratings. ESPN has Texas at No. 38 but that will improve given Texas’ remaining schedule is No. 6. College Football Network has Texas at No. 17.

One problem a 10-2 Texas would potentially have is the amount of company in the SEC with the same record. If Texas lost to Texas A&M, we could see Texas, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss all at 10-2. At that point it would become a beauty pageant where things like SOS could affect committee opinion.

Potential log jam

Texas at 10-2 would still have a case to be made. It would have won at Arkansas where Tennessee lost. It will have also won at Vanderbilt where Alabama lost. Assuming Texas beats Kentucky at home, it would have that to hold over Ole Miss.

A&M would have the head to head over Texas but they wouldn’t haven’t beaten anybody else good unless we’re pretending Missouri and LSU’s ranking at the time of those games matter. In that case, the same would have to apply for Texas as well.

Alabama has the aforementioned loss at Vanderbilt and also at Tennessee.

Tennessee has the aforementioned loss at Arkansas and at Georgia. Like Texas, Tennessee’s offense has struggled at times but its defense has been good.

Ole Miss is on a nice recent run with a blowout win over Arkansas and convincing win over Georgia but it has an inexplicable home loss to Kentucky and an overtime loss to LSU.

Georgia’s in a great place with the road win over Texas and home win over Tennessee. The Bulldogs also showed a lot in the comeback that fell short at Alabama. They were fortunate to escape Lexington with a win and did lose by 18 in Oxford. At times the Georgia offense and quarterback Carson Beck have been poor but their quality wins will have punched their ticket. They still have Georgia Tech, though.

There’s a misconception that Texas played poorly against Georgia. The fact check is the Texas offense played poorly while the defense played very well. Texas has the top defense in the country and has only given up 300+ yard in one game and that was due to having an entire half of garbage time against Florida.

From the Texas SID game notes

My verdict

Clearly I’m a bit biased, and guys like Elliott and Pate are not Texas haters, but barring a blowout loss in the next two games I think Texas will make the playoffs largely on the strength of its defense. That’s a National Championship caliber unit, and the offense, though inconsistent, is very talented and has been productive for much of the year.

We could dive into adjusted stats that demonstrate they’ve largely dominated their schedule but that’s not necessary just yet.

Texas can win the whole thing. That could credibly be said about Georgia, Alabama, and perhaps Ole Miss.

A loss to A&M would certainly muddy the waters, though, as that would propel the Aggies into the playoffs, assuming they defeat Auburn this weekend.

Hopefully Texas removes the human element and keeps winning but if it drops a second game I think the Horns are in.