So, you’ve decided to watch some Texas men's basketball as they start off SEC play versus Texas A&M

Hello, friends, and say “Hello” to the new boss (who is the same as the old boss).

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rivalry roadtrip 🤘#HookEm pic.twitter.com/ahZdvho843

— Texas Men’s Basketball (@TexasMBB) January 3, 2025

Your 2024-25 Texas Men’s Basketball team (11-2 with losses to Ohio State and UConn) steps into its first SEC slate looking solid. Especially as the team starts their new conference journey against Texas A&M on Saturday night.

Freshman Tre Johnson has been as advertised (he’s a for sure lottery pick next June). Transfer forward Arthur Kaluma has been a scoring/rebounding/shooting revelation. And there has been plenty of depth and playmaking from the rest of Texas’ strong backcourt (Tramon Mark, Jordan Pope, Chendall Weaver, Julian Larry) to give the Longhorns all the firepower they needed to quite comfortably navigate a rather weak non-conference schedule.

It’s been fine. Not great, to be clear. But fine.

Anyways, back to that new boss…

For almost the entirety of this century, the Big 12 enjoyed the distinction of being either the second or, more recently, the best basketball conference in the country. Multiple national championships (by Kansas and Baylor) dotted what was both a high ceiling and, more impactfully for Texas, a ridiculously high floor group of programs.

There were no easy outs. No games Texas was able to simply take a rest and coast to victory. The grind, as many say, was plainly not going to stop.

Fast forward to this year.

The Longhorns bid farewell to the only super green pastures of the Big 12 in favor of the wildly green pastures of the SEC (those were references to money, y’all) and, certainly, easier basketball days were ahead, right?

Right?

Sh**.

Currently, the SEC boasts 10 AP Top 25 programs (including four of the top six and seven of the top 13). Venture out into the depths of “Receiving Votes” and that number swells to 12 of the SEC’s 16 teams.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that none of those 12 teams are Texas.

Here is the current list of AP rankings for SEC teams:

1. Tennessee
2. Auburn
5. Alabama
6. Florida
10. Kentucky
12. Oklahoma
13. Texas A&M
17. Mississippi State
23. Arkansas
24. Ole Miss

Georgia and Mizzou are the two other schools currently receiving votes.

No, the Longhorns did not receive a single vote in either the AP or Coaches’ polls this past Monday.

Texas’ Schedule

So, the SEC has their teams play 18 conference games. Given the strength of the league, Texas should probably feel like anything 8-10, or better, will put them squarely into the tournament. Does 7-11 squeeze them in? Possibly (depending on the strength of those wins). Can’t imagine 6-12 finds them anywhere but on the wrong side of the bubble.

Let’s predict whether they can get there.

In the month of January, the Longhorns play what has to be a top-5 toughest schedule in the country. Over the first four weeks of the new year, the Longhorns will follow this slate:

@Texas A&M
Auburn
Tennessee
@Oklahoma
@Florida
Mizzou
Texas A&M
@Ole Miss.

Like, 0-8 and is a genuine possibility. Not that I’d bet that, but that’s a crazy slate of games. If Texas can find three wins out of that list, they’d kind of be in great shape. Anything more than that and we should all be jumping for joy.

Prediction: 2-6

It gets “easier” in February when they only have to tackle the following:

@LSU
Arkansas
@Vanderbilt
Alabama
Kentucky
@South Carolina
@Arkansas

The toughest of those games, at least, are at home.

Prediction: 4-3

The Longhorns wrap up SEC play in March with the following:

Georgia
@Mississippi State
Oklahoma

Prediction: 2-1

Overall Prediction: 8-10 (which would mean a 19-12 record)

If that happens, I think Texas would be rather safely in, something like a seven to a nine seed. It certainly helps that bad losses just aren’t really a thing in the conference this year. I also expect UConn to look solid in the Big East, which is fine for Texas.

But, look, this season could get really ugly in a hurry. Somebody is going to rock like a 2-16 season and it certainly could be the Longhorns.

The positive for me is that I don’t particularly believe in Oklahoma, Mizzou or Ole Miss as top-shelf teams this year and Arkansas has a brutal schedule all the way through (they travel to most of their weaker opponents and host almost every top-level team).

Obviously, we’ll see.

SEC Final Standings Prediction:

1. Auburn

2. Alabama

3. Tennessee

4. Florida

5. Kentucky

6. Mississippi State

7. Texas A&M

8. Texas

9. Arkansas

10. Oklahoma

11. Ole Miss

12. Missouri

13. Georgia

14. Vanderbilt

15. LSU

16. South Carolina

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Thanks for reading, friends.