Stats Breakdown: The numbers to know ahead of Texas vs. Oklahoma
While “throw the stats out the window” has some merit in the Red River Shootout, the numbers do typically forecast what’s likely to happen when Texas battles the Oklahoma Sooners.
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Here’s a look at standard and advanced numbers the Longhorns and Sooners bring to the Cotton Bowl.
Standard Stats
via the UT game notes
College Football Insiders
A reminder: The Longhorns are great and near the nation’s best in almost every advanced statistical category save for defensive rush rate over expected.
What does that measure? According to CFB-Stats’ Parker Fleming, it looks at given down, distance, yard line, and game state, how often do you call designed runs relative to an average team?
Fleming has reiterated that RROE is not a measure of quality. It’s a measure of what opponents are doing against a defense.
For most of these pictures, Red = Bad and Blue = Good. That doesn’t apply for this particular stat, it just illustrates how often a team is calling a designed run relative to an average team. In the above picture, that’s a testament to both defenses taking the field at the Cotton Bowl.
That doesn’t hold true for the other Red stats for the Sooners. Ranking near the bottom of the FBS in offensive success rate, rushing success rate, and dropback passing success rate, the numbers in the 120s illustrate the troubles OU has gone through on offense with a struggling Jackson Arnold and a talented-yet-limited Michael Hawkins at quarterback.
There’s more Red that’s concerning for the crimson and cream. Their early downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success rate on offense is abysmal, while their Eckel Rate (explained here) also leaves a lot to be desired.
ESPN Football Power Index
Once again, the Longhorns rank No. 1 in FPI with a rating of 28.1, 0.4 better than the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes. Texas has a projected win-loss of 11.4-1.3. The Longhorns have a 21.6% chance of winning out, a 46% chance of winning the SEC, a 91.4% chance of making the playoff, a 37.9% chance of making the national championship game, and a 23.3% chance of winning the program’s fifth national title.
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That 23.3% chance is the highest in the nation.
Texas is currently No. 8 in strength of record but a lowly No. 101 in strength of schedule. In remaining strength of schedule, the Longhorns are No. 9.
Oklahoma is currently the No. 17 team in ESPN’s FPI.
ESPN SP+
Texas remains the No. 1 team in SP+, just ahead of No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Alabama. The Longhorns are No. 2 in offensive SP+, No. 5 in defensive SP+, and No. 84 in special teams SP+.
Oklahoma is No. 16 in SP+, No. 50 in offensive SP+, No. 10 in defensive SP+, and No. 21 in special teams SP+.
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FEI
Texas is currently the No. 4 team in FEI. The Longhorns are No. 5 in offensive FEI, No. 4 in defensive FEI, and No. 41 in special teams FEI.
Oklahoma is No. 18 in overall FEI. The Sooners are No. 47 in offensive FEI, No. 10 in defensive FEI, and No. 3 in special teams FEI.
