Stats Breakdown: What the numbers say about Texas and Arizona State
The Texas Longhorns and the Arizona State Sun Devils are set to battle in the 2025 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl as part of the quarterfinal round of the 12-team College Football Playoff. The Longhorns and Sun Devils have only matched up once in their history.
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Here’s what the numbers say about the next iteration of the matchup.
Note: The NCAA website was unable to create a rankings summary for Arizona State, so their raw statistics from CFBStats.com without a ranking is listed.
Standard Stats
Texas Longhorns
Arizona State Sun Devils
College Football Insiders
Weekly reminder: The Longhorns are among the nation’s best in almost every advanced statistical category save for defensive rush rate over expected.
What does that measure? According to CFB-Stats’ Parker Fleming, it looks at given down, distance, yard line, and game state, how often do you call designed runs relative to an average team?
Fleming has reiterated that RROE is not a measure of quality. It’s a measure of what opponents are doing against a defense.
For most of these pictures, Red = Bad and Blue = Good. That doesn’t apply for this particular stat, it just illustrates how often a team is calling a designed run relative to an average team.
SP+
SP+, created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.”
Texas is the No. 5 overall team in SP+ behind Ohio State, Oregon, Ole Miss, and Alabama. Texas is No. 9 in offensive SP+, No. 2 in defensive SP+, and No. 117 in special teams SP+.
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Arizona State is No. 29 on overall SP+, No. 35 in offensive SP+, No. 26 in defensive SP+, and No. 131 in special teams SP+.
FPI
Texas is the No. 1 team in ESPN’s FPI and has occupied the top spot for most of the 2024 college football season. The Longhorns have a 47.3 percent chance of making the national championship game and a 27.5 percent chance of winning the national title according to ESPN’s FPI.
Arizona State is No. 22 in FPI. The Sun Devils have a 5.1 percent chance of making the national championship game and a 1.3 percent chance of winning the national title.
FEI
Texas is No. 4 in overall FEI, behind only Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame. Texas is No. 17 in offensive FEI, No. 2 in defensive FEI, and No. 38 in special teams FEI.
Arizona State is No. 13 in overall FEI, No. 6 in offensive FEI, No. 35 in defensive FEI, and No. 80 in special teams FEI.
