Stats Breakdown: What the numbers say about Texas' SEC Championship matchup with Georgia

The last time the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs met it was part of a weekend hyped up as one of the most important in the history of the city of Austin. The top-five matchup, the Formula 1 race, and the host of stars in town for both events put the national spotlight on Central Texas and the Longhorns.

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The football game did little to live up to the hype. Fueled by Longhorn turnovers, Georgia raced to a 23-0 lead and eventually won 30-15.

Since that game, all Texas has done is win. The Longhorns earned a spot in the SEC Championship in Atlanta, Ga. and will have the chance to best the Bulldogs in a game with a similar national spotlight on it and with far higher stakes. t

“It’s a great opportunity to go against a really formidable opponent,” Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said Monday. “Georgia and Kirby (Smart) have been the standard in college football now for about the last eight years. They’ve been in the SEC Championship game seven of the last eight years. They’ve been in the last four consecutively.

“As I touched on with the team this morning, and this is a real compliment. This wasn’t to intimidate our players. Georgia’s got the heart of a champion, and you see it time and time again.”

What do the numbers say about the rematch?

Standard Stats

via the UT game notes

College Football Insiders

Weekly reminder: The Longhorns are among the nation’s best in almost every advanced statistical category save for defensive rush rate over expected.

What does that measure? According to CFB-Stats’ Parker Fleming, it looks at given down, distance, yard line, and game state, how often do you call designed runs relative to an average team?

Fleming has reiterated that RROE is not a measure of quality. It’s a measure of what opponents are doing against a defense.

For most of these pictures, Red = Bad and Blue = Good. That doesn’t apply for this particular stat, it just illustrates how often a team is calling a designed run relative to an average team.

ESPN Football Power Index

The Texas Longhorns are No. 1 in FPI and are a full point clear of No. 2 Notre Dame. The Longhorns are projected to go 11.6-1.4 and have a 61 percent chance of winning out.

Texas has 61 percent chance to win the SEC, a 100 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 39.8 percent chance to make the national championship, and a 23.9 percent chance of bringing home the program’s fifth national title.

Georgia is No. 5 in FPI.

The Longhorns currently are No. 3 in strength of record and No. 32 in strength of schedule according to ESPN, but their remaining strength of schedule ranks No. 2 in the country.

Georgia has the No. 2 strength of record, the No. 3 strength of schedule, and the No. 1 most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the country.

ESPN SP+

Texas is ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. That’s helped by an offense that ranks No. 7 in offensive SP+ and a defense that’s No. 2 in defensive SP+. The Longhorn special teams ranks No. 117 in special teams SP+.

Georgia is No. 7 in overall SP+, No. 4 in offensive SP+, No. 13 in defensive SP+, and No. 6 in special teams SP+.

FEI

FEI has the Longhorns as the No. 2 team in the nation, just behind the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes. Texas ranks No. 18 in offensive FEI, No. 1 in defensive FEI, and No. 34 in special teams FEI.

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Georgia is No. 9 in this metric, with the No. 6 team offensive FEI, the No. 15 unit in defensive FEI, and the No. 30 special teams FEI

Previous Game Stats

Statistical leaders
Passing

Georgia: Carson Beck – 283-for-435 (65.1%), 3429 yards, 28 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Texas: Quinn Ewers – 206-for-306 (67.3), 2307 yards, 24 touchdowns, 7 interceptions

Rushing

Georgia: Nate Frazier – 123 carries for 587 yards and eight touchdowns

Texas: Quintrevion Wisner – 157 carries for 812 yards and three touchdowns

Receiving

Georgia: Arian Smith – 42 catches for 709 yards and four touchdowns

Texas: Gunnar Helm – 48 catches for 600 yards and five touchdowns