Stats Breakdown: What the numbers say about Texas vs. Arkansas
Both the Texas Longhorns and the Arkansas Razorbacks have played nine games during the 2024 season, but each team has taken very different paths to this Saturday. Texas is 8-1 and 4-1 in Southeastern Conference play, while Arkansas is 5-4 and 3-3 in conference play.
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What do the stats, both advanced and conventional, say about the game?
Standard stats
Via the UT game notes
COLLEGE FOOTBALL INSIDERS
Weekly reminder: The Longhorns are among the nation’s best in almost every advanced statistical category save for defensive rush rate over expected.
What does that measure? According to CFB-Stats’ Parker Fleming, it looks at given down, distance, yard line, and game state, how often do you call designed runs relative to an average team?
Fleming has reiterated that RROE is not a measure of quality. It’s a measure of what opponents are doing against a defense.
For most of these pictures, Red = Bad and Blue = Good. That doesn’t apply for this particular stat, it just illustrates how often a team is calling a designed run relative to an average team.
As is evident, Texas has regressed toward the dividing line between the middle and upper third on early downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success on offense. The Texas defense has also gone to the back half of the starting field position ranking, though mostly by no fault of their own.
ESPN FPI
Texas fell to No. 2 in the Power Index after the Florida game and finds itself just 0.1 points behind Alabama. Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Ole Miss round out the top-5.
Texas’ win total projects to 10.9 and its chances of winning the national title are the highest in the country at 17.5%.
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Arkansas ranks No. 30 in FPI.
FEI
Texas now ranks No. 3 in FEI, opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team or unit would expect to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.
The Longhorns are No. 11 in offensive FEI, No. 1 in defensive FEI, and No. 46 in special teams FEI.
Arkansas is No. 60 in overall FEI. The Razorbacks are No. 56 in offensive FEI, No. 59 in defensive FEI, and No. 69 in special teams FEI.
A STAT THAT COULD DECIDE THE GAME
Arkansas is No. 116 in the country in defensive pass efficiency (146.84). The last time they took the field, against Ole Miss, they got blasted to the tune of 63-31. In that game, Rebels QB Jaxson Dart threw for 515 yards and 5 touchdowns with just six incompletions.
Texas, readying to play a quality, if inconsistent Bobby Petrino passing attack, is No. 1 in the country in defensive pass efficiency (89.39).
On offense, Texas is No. 9 in the country (166.25). Arkansas finds itself at a respectable No. 31 (146.15) behind QB Taylen Green.
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A big advantage for Texas is Quinn Ewers if he can continue his play from the Florida game and Steve Sarkisian can solve whatever defense the Razorbacks
