Stats Breakdown: What the numbers say about Texas vs. Florida
Both the Texas Longhorns and the Florida Gators have played eight games during the 2024 season, but each team has taken very different paths to November. Texas is 7-1 and 3-1 in Southeastern Conference play, while Florida is 4-4 and 2-3 in conference play.
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What do the stats, both advanced and conventional, say about the game?
Standard stats
Via the UT game notes
College Football Insiders
Weekly reminder: The Longhorns are among the nation’s best in almost every advanced statistical category save for defensive rush rate over expected.
What does that measure? According to CFB-Stats’ Parker Fleming, it looks at given down, distance, yard line, and game state, how often do you call designed runs relative to an average team?
Fleming has reiterated that RROE is not a measure of quality. It’s a measure of what opponents are doing against a defense.
For most of these pictures, Red = Bad and Blue = Good. That doesn’t apply for this particular stat, it just illustrates how often a team is calling a designed run relative to an average team.
As is evident, Texas has regressed toward the dividing line between the middle and upper third on early downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success on offense. The Texas defense has also gone to the back half of the starting field position ranking, though mostly by no fault of their own.
ESPN FPI
Texas is in the top spot in ESPN’s Football Power Index and is ahead of Ohio State by 0.1 percentage points. Rounding out the top five are No. 3 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia, and No. 5 Notre Dame.
The Longhorns’ projected record is 10.8 and 1.8, and their chances to win out sits at 34.5 percent. Texas has 34.7 percent odds to win the SEC, a 78.7-percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, at 25.7 percent chance of playing for the national championship, and a 15.6 percent chance of bringing home the program’s fourth national title.
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Florida is currently the No. 25 team in ESPN FPI.
ESPN SP+
Texas is the No. 2 overall team in SP+, defined by Bill Connelly as a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. The Longhorns are only behind Ohio State in SP+ and are just 0.3 percentage points behind the Buckeyes in overall rating at 28.7.
Texas is the No. 7 team in offensive SP+, the No. 4 team in defensive SP+, and the No. 108 team in special teams SP+.
Florida is the No. 26 team in overall SP+. The Gators are No. 20 in offensive SP+, No. 41 in defensive SP+, and No. 4 in special teams SP+.
FEI
Texas now ranks No. 5 in FEI, opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team or unit would expect to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.
The Longhorns are No. 15 in offensive FEI, No. 1 in defensive FEI, and No. 50 in special teams FEI.
Florida is No. 23 in overall FEI. The Gators are No. 41 in offensive FEI, No. 26 in defensive FEI, and No. 7 in special teams FEI.
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All-Time Matchups
Saturday marks Florida’s first trip to Austin since 1939 and the first game between the two teams since 1940.
