Stats Breakdown: What the numbers say about Texas vs. Georgia
The No. 1 Texas Longhorns and the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs do a lot of things similarly considering both their respective coaches come from the Nick Saban tree.
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“A ton of respect, and I think the premise of our programs is probably very similar,” Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said Monday about comparisons between his team and Kirby Smart‘s. “Obviously ours has got a little bit of an offensive perspective because of me, and his a defensive perspective. But I think the way we built our teams, the style in which we try to play the game, and our belief in physicality and running the ball, those things matter, our belief in special teams, a lot of the things that we do and how aggressive we are in recruiting are very similar that way. I respect that.”
Many of those similarities, and even some of their differences, are reflected in the various statistical rankings both teams carry with half of the regular season under their belts.
Here’s what the stats say about the two top-five teams.
Standard Stats
Texas
Georgia
College Football Insiders
Weekly reminder: The Longhorns are among the nation’s best in almost every advanced statistical category save for defensive rush rate over expected.
What does that measure? According to CFB-Stats’ Parker Fleming, it looks at given down, distance, yard line, and game state, how often do you call designed runs relative to an average team?
Fleming has reiterated that RROE is not a measure of quality. It’s a measure of what opponents are doing against a defense.
For most of these pictures, Red = Bad and Blue = Good. That doesn’t apply for this particular stat, it just illustrates how often a team is calling a designed run relative to an average team.
So what about the other Red instances on this graph? Coincidentally, they belong to the Bulldogs.
Filed position can be explained by the fact that Anthony Evans III has only five kick returns in six games.
The offensive rush success rate means that Georgia is only No. 72 in the nation in generating plays that have an expected points added above zero, meaning the rushing offense for the Bulldogs is somewhat lacking compared to 71 other teams.
The defensive success rate on pass attempts means that teams have had success passing the ball against the Bulldogs.
ESPN Football Power Index
The Texas Longhorns remain No. 1 and are almost three points clear of No. 2 Ohio State in FPI rating. The Longhorns are projected to go 11.9-1.0 and have a 34.4 percent chance of winning out.
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Texas has 60.9 percent odds to win the SEC, a 95.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 46.9 percent chance to make the national championship, and a 31.2 percent chance of bringing home the program’s fifth national title.
Georgia is No. 4 in FPI.
The Longhorns currently are No. 6 in strength of record and No. 82 in strength of schedule according to ESPN, but their remaining strength of schedule ranks No. 9 in the country.
Georgia has the No. 7 strength of record, the No. 7 strength of schedule, and the No. 2 most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the country.
ESPN SP+
Texas continues to hold onto the top spot in SP+. That’s helped by an offense that ranks No. 2 in offensive SP+ and a defense that’s No. 4 in defensive SP+. The Longhorn special teams ranks No. 97 in special teams SP+.
Georgia is No. 5 in overall SP+, No. 6 in offensive SP+, No. 10 in defensive SP+, and No. 12 in special teams SP+.
FEI
FEI has the Longhorns as the No. 2 team in the nation, just behind the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes. Texas ranks No. 4 in offensive FEI, No. 2 in defensive FEI, and No. 38 in special teams FEI.
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Georgia is No. 4 in this metric, with the No. 5 team offensive FEI, the No. 9 unit in defensive FEI, and the No. 24-ranked special teams FEI
