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Stats Breakdown: What the numbers say about Texas vs. Vanderbilt

Joe Cookby:Joe Cook•10/22/24•

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Matthew Golden
Matthew Golden (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

There’s no rest for the weary as the No. 5 Texas Longhorns have to travel to Nashville, Tenn. to play the No. 25 Vanderbilt Commodores just one week after losing 30-15 to Georgia.

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What do the stats say about the matchup? A look inside the conventional and advanced stats.

Standard Stats

via the UT game notes

College Football Insiders

Weekly reminder: The Longhorns are among the nation’s best in almost every advanced statistical category save for defensive rush rate over expected.

What does that measure? According to CFB-Stats’ Parker Fleming, it looks at given down, distance, yard line, and game state, how often do you call designed runs relative to an average team?

Fleming has reiterated that RROE is not a measure of quality. It’s a measure of what opponents are doing against a defense.

For most of these pictures, Red = Bad and Blue = Good. That doesn’t apply for this particular stat, it just illustrates how often a team is calling a designed run relative to an average team.

ESPN FPI

Texas dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in ESPN’s FPI, just 0.3 rating percentage points behind the top-ranked Buckeyes. The Longhorns are projected to go 10.7-1.8, same as Ohio State, and have a win-out percentage of 38.7%.

Texas has a 34.2% chance of winning the conference, a 78.2% chance of making the playoff, a 29.2% chance of making the national championship game, and an 18.4% chance of winning the program’s fifth national title.

Vanderbilt currently ranks No. 42 in ESPN’s FPI and has a projected record of 6.3-5.8.

ESPN SP+

Texas dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in SP+, a good bit behind No. 1 Ohio State in overall rating (29.1 to 27.4). The Texas offense is No. 5 in offensive SP+, No. 4 in defensive SP+, and No. 115 in special teams SP+.

Vanderbilt is No. 54 in overall SP+, No. 33 in offensive SP+, No. 70 in defensive SP+, and No. 14 in special teams SP+.

FEI

FEI dropped from No. 2 to No. 4 in overall FEI, trailing No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon, and No. 3 Georgia.

Texas ranks No. 10 in offensive FEI and now holds the top spot in defensive FEI. Texas’ special teams rank No. 53 in special teams FEI.

Vanderbilt ranks No. 60 in overall FEI, No. 43 in offensive FEI, No. 94 in defensive FEI, and No. 9 in special teams FEI.

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All-Time Matchups

The Longhorns have not beaten the Commodores since 1927 and have never won in Nashville, though all 12 matchups were prior to the Hoover administration.

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