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Steve Sarkisian makes the case for his team ahead of 2025's first CFP rankings release

Joe Cookby: Joe Cook11/03/25josephcook89
Steve Sarkisian, Texas
© Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

When the College Football Playoff releases its first set of rankings of the 2025 season on Tuesday night minutes before the start of the Sean Miller era of Longhorns basketball, Texas football head coach Steve Sarkisian will be watching.

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“I’ll probably watch it because I’m on a bye,” Sarkisian said Monday. “If I was game-planning for an opponent, I probably wouldn’t watch it. I’ve got a little more time on my hands this week, so I’ll probably watch it. It’s always interesting to see.”

The CFP Selection Committee and its rankings have been scrutinized for its entire existence. They’ve been the center of plenty of controversy as well. The final four-team CFP saw an undefeated conference champion in Florida State left out of the playoff field while one-loss conference champion Alabama made the cut. The first 12-team playoff saw a Group of Six school earn a first-round bye while Alabama sat at home.

Sarkisian knows the members of the CFP Selection Committee have a tough job, but he hopes they are taking in the right data before coming to their Tuesday night conclusions.

“Are they really looking at the resumes of the team?” Sarkisian said. “Are they really watching people play? Are they really watching head-to-head matchups? What happened when people played each other? How did games go? It’s interesting. It’s an interesting process that the College Football (Playoff) committee has to go through.”

The Longhorns are currently No. 13 in the Associated Press Poll and the US LBM Coaches Poll. Some advanced metrics think similarly of the Longhorns. SP+ has Texas as the No. 14 team in the nation. FEI has the Longhorns at No. 17. ESPN’s FPI puts Sarkisian’s program at No. 8 with a 55.2% chance to make the CFP. That percentage is good for ninth in the nation. If the BCS were still around, it would have Texas at No. 11.

According to FPI, Texas is No. 9 in strength of record, No. 11 in strength of schedule, and No. 5 in terms of toughest remaining schedule.

Some of these advanced metrics are now part of what the selection committee considers, according to a press release from August.

Changes for the upcoming season include enhancements to the tools that the selection committee uses to assess schedule strength and how teams perform against their schedule. The current schedule strength metric has been adjusted to apply greater weight to games against strong opponents. An additional metric, record strength, has been added to the selection committee’s analysis to go beyond a team’s schedule strength to assess how a team performed against that schedule. This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team. Conversely, these changes will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.

Sarkisian believes that his Longhorns should have a quality ranking in tomorrow’s release considering what his team has been through.

“I think we’ve got a pretty good team,” Sarkisian said. “We’ve beaten two top-10 ranked teams so far this year. We play in the toughest conference in America. We lost on the road in a difficult environment. We lost on the road against the No. 1 team in the country to start the season in a one-score game. I do think we’re playing better football now than we have all year. We need to continue to do that. There’s a lot of football left to be played.”

Sark and the rest of the college football world will see how the Longhorns are viewed by the CFP Selection Committee tomorrow night at 7 p.m. CT on ESPN.

Other College Football Playoff changes for 2025

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Photo by Brett Davis, Imagn Images.

Last year, there was plenty confusion about rankings and seedings not matching up. Texas was actually ranked No. 3 in the final CFP rankings but ended up as the 5th seed because the top four seeds were reserved for conference champions. Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State were the four highest-ranked conference champions and earned the top four seeds. Texas was the highest-ranked team that didn’t win its conference and earned the 5th seed. The Longhorns matched up with 12th-seed Clemson, who earned its place in the CFP as a result of winning the ACC. The Tigers were No. 16 in the final rankings.

This year, this is how the teams will be seeded based on the rankings according to a policy the CFP updated in May.

The new policy will guarantee the five highest-ranked conference champions a place in the Playoff, but will no longer include a bye for the four highest-ranked champions. The 12-team bracket will now be seeded directly based on the final ranking of the CFP Selection Committee, with the four highest-ranked teams receiving a first-round bye. If one or more of the five highest-ranked conference champions are ranked outside the top 12, that team or teams would move up to the 12th seed, 11th seed, etc., based on the number of conference champions outside the top 12.

The easiest way to make the CFP is to win your conference. For a Power Four team like Texas, winning the SEC should guarantee a top-four ranking and therefore a top-four seed plus a first-round bye.

If Texas can’t win the SEC title, then it must

  • Be in the top 11 of the final rankings and ahead of at least one conference champion, likely the highest-ranked Group of Six conference champion
  • Be in the top 10 of the final rankings and ahead of at least two conference champions, likely the highest-ranked Group of Six conference champion and one other Power Four conference champion.

The second scenario is similar to the one that kept Alabama out of the 2024 CFP. The Crimson Tide were ranked No. 11 in the final rankings, but they were leapfrogged by No. 12 Arizona State and No. 16 Clemson and pushed out of the 12-team field.

Currently, the highest-ranked Group of Six team in the AP poll is Memphis at No. 22. They are the only G6 team in the top 25. James Madison, San Diego State, North Texas, and South Florida are in the receiving votes category.

CFP Selection Committee

2025 College Football Playoff Schedule

First round

  • Location: On campus of higher seeds
  • Dates: December 19-20

Quarterfinals
Cotton Bowl

  • Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
  • Date: December 31

Orange Bowl

  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
  • Date: January 1

Rose Bowl

  • Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.
  • Date: January 1

Sugar Bowl

  • Location: Caesar’s Superdome, New Orleans, La.
  • Date: January 1

Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl

  • Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
  • Date: January 8

Peach Bowl

  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga.
  • Date: January 9

College Football Playoff National Championship

  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
  • Date: January 19

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